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000
FXUS65 KPUB 110928
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today with seasonal temperatures and generally light
  winds.

- Possibility for critical fire weather conditions for portions
  of the area Friday into next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderating
northwest flow aloft across the Rockies, as yesterday`s passing
system continues to translate east across the Upper Midwest, while
upper level ridging builds across the West Coast. Satellite imagery
indicates some low to mid level clouds across the Pikes Peak region
down the I-25 Corridor to the lower eastern slope of the Wet Mtns,
and out across the far southeast Plains early this morning, with
clear skies west of the Front Range at this time.

For today and tonight, northwest flow aloft continues to moderate as
upper level ridging builds across the Great Basin and into the
Rockies. Drier air within the northwest flow will help clear skies
across the Plains through the early morning hours, with mostly sunny
skies expected through the rest of the day, save for some cumulus
building over the higher terrain through the afternoon. Surface high
pressure continuing to build into the southern High Plains will
allow for surface winds to turn east to southeast through the late
morning across southeast Colorado, with temperatures expected to be
right around seasonal levels in the lower to mid 60s across the
Plains, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain save
for lower 60s across the high mountain valleys. Warming aloft
continues tonight, with mild over night lows mainly in the 20s and
30s areawide, warmest across the banana belt region along and near
the eastern slopes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Friday...Models still indicate that a quick-moving upper shortwave
will cross the region Fri, producing some isolated shower activity
over the higher terrain as well as mixing some stronger winds aloft
down to the surface. Meanwhile, a potent Pacific system will drop
south along the West Coast during the day, reaching the central CA
coastline by the end of the day. Increasing southwest flow aloft
across the Four Corners will translate to a increasing downslope
flow, and coupled with predicted high temps 10-15 degrees above
normal, critical fire weather conditions may occur for portions of
the area. However, given the slow predicted movement of the
approaching upper low, this is starting to look more like a marginal
case for high fire danger, and have decided to hold off on upgrading
the existing Fire Weather Watch at this time. Plan on high temps in
the mid 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower
80s for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...Models are in far better agreement now on
the path and look of the incoming system. The low center moves
onshore across CA on Sat, then dumbbells into two pieces on Sun
with the northern piece merging with the flow aloft across ID
and MT, while the southern piece strengthens and pushes across
southern NV late Sun night. It looks as if dry conditions and
above normal warmth will continue across the forecast area both
days. As the system nears, surface winds will be on the
increase, and critical fire weather conditions will be likely
both days for much more of the forecast area. However, held off
on any additional highlights at this time since Fri is still a
question. High temps both days will warm into the 60s to around
70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Monday...The southern low center quickly tracks across northern
AZ and NM, then across the Panhandles into KS through Mon
night. Given such a rapid movement, it will certainly be
unsettled with snow returning to the mts, and possibly shower
activity with isolated thunderstorms across the plains during
the afternoon. Forecast wind and RH criteria points to another
possible fire weather day but feel this is questionable, so stay
tuned on that aspect of the forecast. Look for highs in the 50s
to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 60s to upper 70s
for the plains. Forecast for Monday will likely go through a
number of adjustments.

Tuesday and Wednesday...As the southern low quickly ejects to the
east out of the area, a stronger low pressure system will drop out
of the Pacific NW and push into the Great Basin and Rocky Mt regions
Tue, then gradually slide east across MT and WY into the Dakotas on
Wed. This track, if the model solutions hold, will mean more mt snow
and a lot more wind for the entire state. Though temps will be on a
cooling trend, feel that both days will likely see fire weather
highlights. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Low VFR to MVFR cigs across the Pikes Peak region, down through the
southern I-25 Corridor, will slowly dissipate through sunrise, as
drier air within modest northwest flow helps mix out the atmosphere.
VFR conditions with generally light upslope flow is then expected at
COS and PUB through the rest of the taf period.

VFR conditions with light winds expected at ALS over the next 24
hours, with upper level ridging building into the Rockies.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ224-228>230-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW