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000
FXUS62 KRAH 131728
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Southeast US through Sunday, then
build eastward to near Bermuda by Monday. The high will continue to
ridge westward toward the Southeast US through the beginning of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Northwesterly winds have remained gusty into this afternoon, as
expected. So far, maximum wind gusts have ranged from 30-38 mph
across the northern Piedmont, Triangle, Sandhills, and Coastal
Plain. Relative humidity levels have started to dip below 30-percent
and should continue to lower into the mid 20s by late this
afternoon. As such, the increased fire danger statement will remain
in effect until 7 pm this evening. After that, northwest winds will
diminish as high pressure shifts east into portions of the SE US.
Temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon should dip
down into the low to mid 40s overnight with clear skies and light
winds, pretty much right above average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Surface high pressure over the Southeast US will gradually build
eastward to Bermuda Sun/Sun night. Meanwhile over the mid-Atlantic,
A piedmont trough will develop on Sun and remain over the area into
Sun night, with increased southwesterly flow into the area. A cold
front will slide south toward the area through Sun night, but as of
latest model guidance should remain north of the area through Sun
night. Aloft, a s/w disturbance will track through the Carolinas Sun
night, resulting in a brief period of increased cloudiness and
perhaps a sprinkle. Temperatures should be well above normal, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to around
60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Low confidence for the long term forecast as model agreement has
little consensus.  An upper level low will make its way east-
northeast from the Southwest US Monday to the Great Lakes region by
Wednesday. Ahead of the associated trough, an upper level ridge will
move across the Mid-Atlantic early to mid week before the negativity
titled upper trough axis is over our region Thursday. At the
surface, the associated low pressure moving across the Central
Plains Monday and Tuesday will eventually make its way up over the
Great Lakes region while the attached cold front will move into the
Mid-Atlantic. Timing is still uncertain and some models show a
primary and secondary cold front moving through the region Thursday
and Friday. For now going with an isolated chance of showers and
storms Thursday with another better chance for the next round on
Friday as another front moves through the region. Temperatures will
be well above normal for the long term with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday through
Thursday. Temperatures Thursday and especially Friday will be
dependent on timing of the front(s) and how much coverage Central NC
receives.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail for the 24-
hour TAF period. NW winds will continue to be gusty this afternoon,
between 25 and 30 kt. Winds will diminish tonight before increasing
once again for Sun afternoon, this time out of the SW. Gusts on Sun
will not be as strong as today but likely hover in the 20-25 kt
range.

Outlook: There is a threat of LLWS Sun night as a 40-50 kt LLJ
advects overhead. A stalled boundary over a portion of VA/NC could
warrant some very isolated chances of a shower or storm Mon and Tue,
but otherwise VFR should dominate during the upcoming week.

VFR conditions will continue through the middle of next
week, as high pressure builds across and offshore the Southeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An increased fire danger will remain in effect across all of central
North Carolina through 7 PM this evening. Northwesterly winds of 15
to 20 mph will gust between 25 and 35 mph, along with low relative
humidity as low as 25 percent. Refer to your local burn-permitting
authority on whether you may burn. If you do burn, exercise extreme
caution. On Sunday, southwest winds may gust to 20-25 mph, but
relative humidity levels are expected to be higher than today. As
such, an increased fire danger is not expected for Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Kren/CBL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Kren
FIRE WEATHER...Kren