240
FXUS65 KREV 070931
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
231 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Near to below freezing low temperatures are anticipated tonight and
going into Wednesday morning following breezy winds generally out of
the north this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions look to persist
through the remainder of the week while the region sees a warming
trend through the week allowing for above average daytime highs by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a northwesterly upper air
flow being underneath the western portion of a negatively tilted
upper air trough early this morning. Current surface observations
and radar returns report mostly high clouds over a good portion
of the region along with a few isolated light showers in northern
portions. Ensemble guidance forecasts an upper air low over the
Northern Plains region reorienting the trough causing the CWA`s
upper air flow to turn north-northwesterly during the night. At
the surface, cloud cover looks to diminish by the afternoon hours
with winds turning northerly across the region with gusts between
20-30 mph mostly east of the CA/NV border. For tonight, the clear
skies will allow for some decent cooling with overnight low
temperatures down to the 20s and 30s through most of the region.
This looks to be another night to make sure sensitive vegetation
is protected with some areas anticipated to be near to below
freezing.

On Wednesday and through the rest of the work week, models show the
CWA taking a northerly flow aloft by Wednesday afternoon before
turning north-northeasterly overnight as an upper air low develops
over UT. This low is projected to retreat westward into eastern NV
on Thursday causing the CWA`s upper air flow to veer to
northeasterly. For Friday, models show an upper air ridge moving
over the northwestern CONUS while the nearby upper air low slowly
progresses southward over the CA/NV border. At the surface, models
continue to forecast similar or slightly cooler daytime high
temperatures on Wednesday compared to Tuesday with western NV
being mostly in the lower 60s and the Sierra communities being
cooler in the 50s. High temperatures in the lower 70s return
mostly to western NV on Thursday while the remainder of the region
can expect highs in the 60s. Warmer daytime temperatures are
anticipated on Friday with western NV seeing highs in the middle
to upper 70s and Sierra communities warming to the middle to upper
60s. Models also show some minimal chances for precipitation
Wednesday through Friday as well.

On the weekend and into the beginning of next week, ensemble
guidance has the low moving away from the CWA over the Four Corners
region by late Saturday and Sunday with the larger ridge being over
most of the western CONUS. By Monday, models start to diverge a bit
from their solutions with the GFS Ensemble showing a weak trough
passing over the CWA through the day before moving east of the CWA
by Tuesday. The ECMWF Ensemble as an alternative solution does
not have this trough feature at this time and keeps the CWA
underneath the ridge on Monday and Tuesday. As a result of this
upper air setup, temperatures within the region look to continue
to warm to the point where a good portion of the area sees highs
in the 80s during the weekend through Tuesday at this time while
higher elevations in the Sierra see lower temperatures in the
upper 60s and into the 70s. Dry conditions are expected to persist
through this time as well though the GFS hints at some 10-20%
chances of precipitation on Monday due to the trough feature
moving through. Will continue to monitor this situation in case
more models pick it up, but there is not much confidence at this
time to say for sure if these precipitation chances will come to
fruition. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail for the REV TAF sites
going through today. Surface winds look to turn more northerly
today with terminal gusts up to around 20 kts at the NV terminals
along with KMMH around 18Z. Patchy blowing dust may be a concern
during this time for eastern portions of the CWA. A decrease in
winds expects to hit each terminal between 02Z-04Z before surface
winds turn more northeasterly on Wednesday. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$