Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Reno, NV
000
FXUS65 KREV 160819
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
119 AM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A drier and warmer springlike pattern is underway with afternoon
temperatures on track to rise into the 60s for Sierra communities and
70s across lower valleys this week. There may even be a few 80s
for warmer valleys by the weekend. A slight cooling trend and a
chance for showers may return next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* Temperature ensemble spreads have narrowed through the weekend
which brings more certainty to the forecast. A warmup is on
track with temperatures likely to peak this weekend as a
shortwave ridge shifts across CA/NV. Generally dry through the
weekend although the GEFS continues to paint some light QPF
along the Sierra late week. The ECS remains drier and the
forecast will continue to follow a dry blended guidance where
PoPs are less than 15%.
* A trough passing to our north will bump winds up a bit across
the ridges tonight and early Wednesday when gusts could approach
50 mph with some late day W-NW breezes down at the surface where
gusts could approach 25 mph over northwest NV. A front will drop
southward through the Great Basin which will turn our winds more
north-northeast 10-15 mph Wednesday. Otherwise, it will have
little impact on our weather. After warming into the 60s and 70s
this afternoon, we will not see much change Wed-Thu. By late
week into the weekend, temperatures will warm further, maybe
pushing 80 degrees for warmest valleys (about 10-15 degrees
above normal).
* Next week, ECS/GEFS meteograms continue to show QPF signatures
as a potential trough approaches around mid week. There is still
a lot of spread in the ensemble suite, but overall trends favor
a cool down, increased breezes and chances for showers.
Hohmann
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of freezing fog will persist in the Martis Valley /KTRK/
through 16Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the week with a general W-NW flow aloft. A weak system
will brush by to our north tonight with a slight uptick in winds
across ridges (FL100 winds 25-35 kts). W-NW winds 10-15 kts at the
surface this afternoon/evening will shift N-NE on Wednesday as a
cold front drops southward through the Great Basin.
Hohmann
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$