Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
423
FNUS75 KRIW 091419
FWSRIW
Spot Forecast for Rock Tunp Pile Burn...Bureau of Land Management BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
819 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service
.DISCUSSION...
Easterly winds at 20 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 40 mph will develop
between 0900 and 1100 this morning and persist through the afternoon
and evening, decreasing slightly overnight, with gusts 25 to 25 mph
through the day Friday. Scattered snow showers will also continue
to persist today, with a 30% chance of precipitation through 1600,
with chances generally decreasing through the rest of the afternoon.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected through the weekend with
light northwest winds expected through the weekend as well. There is a
10% chance of thunderstorms each afternoon Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). 30% chance of
scattered rain showers and snow showers through
1400, decreasing to 20% chance through sunset.
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 32 mph
increasing to 37 mph late around 1400.
Ridgetop wind.......East 25 to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 24 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (61600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (139700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51 43 56 53 46 38 47 43
Weather cov.....ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
Weather type....SW RS RS RS RS RS RS RS
Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 20 20
LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............38 40 41 42 43 44 44 45
RH..............59 55 50 46 45 41 43 40
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..13 17 18 18 19 20 20 21
20 FT wind gust.18 23 26 26 26 29 29 30
Ridge wind dir..E E E E E E E E
Ridge wind spd..25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 7.0 7.0 7.0
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.24 24 29 29 29 31 31 31
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100062 62 140 140 140 189 189 189
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 17 to 20 mph with gusts to around 29
mph.
Ridgetop wind.......East around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL decreasing to 800 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East 28 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (134200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(19200 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........28 20 15 6 4 10 7 15 27 30 28 30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............45 43 41 37 36 35 35 35 35 33 33 32
RH..............40 43 55 62 69 75 78 78 78 81 85 88
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..19 20 17 17 17 19 19 19 19 20 18 18
20 FT wind gust.26 29 23 23 23 26 26 26 26 29 26 26
Ridge wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
Ridge wind spd..30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 5.4 5.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.29 29 29 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDspl kt-ft/1000134 134 134 19 19 19 22 22 22 23 23 23
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Isolated rain
showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 12 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 36 mph in
the morning and early afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......East 25 to 30 mph decreasing to around 20 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 21 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (71100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (112300
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28 47 39 57 57 24 49 44 38 21 24 27
Weather cov..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............32 33 35 37 41 43 46 47 49 50 51 51
RH..............88 85 78 73 67 60 60 55 51 47 43 41
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..18 16 17 17 19 20 20 18 17 14 13 12
20 FT wind gust.26 22 25 25 26 29 29 26 23 19 18 17
Ridge wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
Ridge wind spd..25 25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.2 6.2 6.2
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.26 26 26 29 29 29 28 28 28 21 21 21
SDspl kt-ft/100019 19 19 71 71 71 120 120 120 112 112 112
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 50s. Northeast winds around
7 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs around 60. Northwest winds around 8 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. West
winds around 9 mph.
$$
Forecaster...Hensley
Requested by...Jeffrey Priebe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413263.2/RIW
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpriebe@blm.gov