688
FXUS61 KRLX 030526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this
afternoon into the weekend as it washes out over the area.
Active pattern continues next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 930 PM Thursday...

ISOL showers/storms across the northern mountains have mainly
dissipated/exited the FA at this point, with a dry rest of the
overnight expected. The main updates to the forecast were to add
a bit of river valley fog across mainly the deeper fog prone
valleys of far southern WV and southwest VA, along with a
general reduction in low temperatures overnight by 2-4 degrees
across most of the area (hills/ridges being the exception)
given decent mixing this afternoon resulting in lower dew points
across the region. SCT/BKN cirrus moves overhead tonight, but
shouldn`t inhibit cooling much. The rest of the forecast remains
on track.

As of 645 PM Thursday...

Diurnal anabatic surface flow converging along the spine of the
northern mountains has resulted in a healthy Cu field with a
few isolated light showers at present. Have inserted the chance
(~20%) for isolated showers over the next few hours in this
area, with an isolated rumble of thunder not out of the
question. The chance for precipitation quickly diminishes near
or shortly after sunset. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 142 PM Thursday...

High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the
area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves
north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under
a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday`s afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS
increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These
ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.

Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild
temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm
surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with
few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly
flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the
lower 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and
storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be
followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With
the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to
around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of
year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the
period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water
issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent
dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud
cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There
is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation
expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another
shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a
low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually
move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal
to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and
additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the
region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are
expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized
storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability
increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the
weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the
potential for flooding issues increasing during this period,
particularly Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of
valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings
or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will
dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to
high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this
afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches
from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be
possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and
tonight.

Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds
increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the
day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the
TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 05/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight
into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday
mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB