359
FXUS61 KRLX 031527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1127 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this
afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next
week with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1123 AM Friday...

Satellite and radar imagery show clouds and showers moving
slowly east northeast across the Mid OH valley and portions of
WV late this afternoon. Expect this activity to increase in
intensity and coverage this afternoon and evening. Previous
forecast remains on track.

As of 640 AM Friday...

Freshened up PoPs to account for isolated showers that are
encroaching upon the western fringe of the CWA earlier than
anticipated. No other changes have been made at this time.

As of 220 AM Friday...

Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades
to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air,
transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front,
should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during
the day.

Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon,
with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as
moderate instability develops within the warm and moist
environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while
a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and
storm activity within the CWA overnight.

Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with
values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into
tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which
could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas;
however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the
fairly dry conditions leading up to today.

Tonight`s temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the
50s to 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Active weather will span into the weekend as a cold front halts
overhead and washes out. Warm and humid conditions festering
over the area, coupled with the front and mid-level shortwave
ripples, will yield showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Saturday. Convection timing will be at its highest during peak
heating hours in the afternoon, but retaining a slight chance
for storms even beyond sunset late Saturday night.

Upper level troughing progressing through the Ohio Valley on
Sunday will contribute to renewed potential for showers and
storms. Additional downpours will continue to chip away at flash
flood guidance, and may begin to impose local water concerns.
Antecedently dry soil conditions and blossoming vegetation
should help mitigate widespread concern.

More of the same on Monday, despite potential to see a brief
lull in activity Sunday night, as additional support arrives
from a southern stream disturbance. Daytime heating, albeit a
few degrees cooler than previous few days, will once again
promote increased potential for afternoon showers and storms,
especially across the southern half of the forecast area and up
along the spine of the Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Unsettled weather prevails through much of the work week with
daily chances of showers and storms. A progressive upper level
pattern will continue to churn shortwave energy through the
heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians during the
extended period. The focus of precipitation falls over us during
this period of time under the guise of a stalled frontal
boundary overhead. Ample precipitable water values on the order
of 1.5 to 1.8 inches nestled over the region will continue to
promote heavy downpours with this activity, further aggravating
the threat for flooding for midweek and beyond.

00Z GFS run continues to imply a tightened pressure gradient
settling over the area as the upper level jet noses into the
Great Lakes region. This may promote breezy to occasionally
strong wind gusts for Wednesday and into the end of the valid
forecast period. Other global models aren`t as keen with the
placement of the upper jet and such a tightened low level
gradient.

Temperatures rise back into the 80s down in the lowlands for
Tuesday through Thursday, but possibly cooling off by the end of
the work week behind a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Early morning fog will dissipate early in the TAF period, then
showers and thunderstorms that are currently approaching from
the west are expected to spread across the area as a front nears
during the day. Activity should then be sustained into tonight
due to a passing disturbance. VFR ceilings are expected to
gradually descend to low-end VFR as the day progresses and then
further degrade to MVFR/IFR overnight. Periodic restrictions to
visibility will also be possible within any heavier showers or
storms later today and tonight.

5-10kt southwest winds are expected much of the day, followed by
light and variable winds for tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from
the forecast. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible in
showers/storms.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into
Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB