540
FXUS61 KRNK 141738
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
138 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will cross the Mid Atlantic through Wednesday
to bring showers and scattered thunderstorms. Weak high
pressure should provide drier air for Thursday, but another low
pressure system will bring more rain for the end of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain showers to continue through the evening and overnight
hours.

2) Areas of dense fog tonight.

3) Widely scattered thunderstorms tomorrow.

Widely scattered showers are ongoing this afternoon as an upper
wave pivots northeast ahead of a the main upper low centered
over southern Missouri. Rain is expected to increase in coverage
and possibly in intensity through the evening hours. The main
axis of rainfall looks to fall along the Foothills and east into
the Piedmont. Rain will taper off tonight and become more
isolated. Precipitable Water values continue to increase with
southerly flow. RAP analysis indicated 1.4" to 1.6" has made it
into the region, therefore some heavy downpours will be
possible. Fortunately, not expecting prolonged training or
convection so any flooding threat is low.

With plenty of moisture, expecting fog to develop overnight and
could be dense in some areas. Lows tonight remain mild in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Upper low, expected to become an open wave as it moves east
tomorrow. Will cross during peak heating, but some uncertainty
lies on how much cloud cover will persist, which in turn will
limit heating/destabilization. Deep moisture is in place, but
shear is limited, therefore not expecting organized convection.
Most likely area to see breaks in the clouds will be across the
mountains and this would coincide with where the best coverage
of storms appears to occur, based off 12z CAM guidance. Owing to
weak shear, multicellular/merging pulse storms seem to be the
most likely storm mode tomorrow. Capable of a few instances of
damaging wind and perhaps some hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

   - Moderate to high confidence of more rainfall Friday and Friday
     night

Wednesday night and Thursday the upper trough and surface low move
east off the Mid Atlantic and Carolina coast, bringing low
level and surface wind around to the northwest then north. This
will limit the probability of precipitation to the mountains.
Some clearing is expected in the piedmont Thursday afternoon.

Surface high pressure will cover the area overnight Thursday
and Friday morning. This break in widespread rain will be brief.
Another low pressure system will approach from the central
United States. Showers and thunderstorms reach the central and
southern Appalachians by Friday afternoon and the piedmont
before Friday night.

Models showed good consensus with the synoptic pattern in this time
frame. Despite the low and cold front crossing the area on
Wednesday night, there will be little noticeable change in the
overall airmass. Lows through the Friday night will be mild,
generally 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will be near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

   - Moderate confidence that wet weather will continue Saturday
   - Monday and Tuesday may be dry, confidence lower.

The bulk of this next system comes through the region on
Saturday. A cold front will provide enhanced lift. Behind this
low, mean flow turns to the northwest, confining precipitation
to the mountains. Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will
be on Sunday with daytime heating. Pattern will follow a more
diurnal cycle with less rainfall overnight. Monday and Tuesday
will have the most likely chance to be dry during the day. Still
no significant chance in airmass or high and low temperatures
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Sub VFR flying conditions can be expected for the 24hr TAF
period. Widely scattered showers will continue into the early
overnight hours, along with low cigs. Areas of dense fog
development seem probable tonight as well. All terminals
tonight will have periods of IFR/LIFR. Some slight improvements
tomorrow by late morning as morning fog dissipates and cigs
raise, but IFR to MVFR still likely to persist to the end of
the valid 24hr period.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Poor flying conditions will continue into Wednesday as a cold
front approaches from the west. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday evening but
start to fade by Wednesday night as the cold front exits. VFR
conditions should return for most terminals by Thursday due to
weak high pressure passing to the north. However, another low
pressure system could arrive during Friday afternoon into
Saturday to bring low ceilings and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...BMG