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000
FXUS61 KRNK 120805
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
405 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty wind and colder temperatures will be in the wake of the strong
frontal system for today into Saturday with some showers in the
mountains. Mainly dry and warmer weather is on tap for the beginning
of next week, then a front could bring the next chance for
precipitation by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds to continue through period.

2. Showers and isolated thunderstorm potential mainly in the west
for today into tonight with an upper disturbance.

The main front and stronger convection continues to exit to the east
and the enhanced westerly gradient winds are kicking in. With the
recent refresh of guidance, much of the mountains look to be close
to wind advisory criteria going through tonight so have extended the
previous advisory until 10 AM Saturday, then afternoon winds should
be a bit lower. Still thinking the advisory area could see gusts up
to 50 mph through the period. Aside from the winds, the other focus
is on a shortwave/vort lobe progged to traverse the southern extent
of the upper closed low and track across the area today. This will
allow for increased pops for showers mainly across the western
majority of the CWA. Thermal profiles will be cold with steep lapse
rates (nearly dry adiabatic) so there should be some attainable CAPE
with thunder and perhaps even graupel potential in parts of the area
as well. In the wake of the disturbance, there should be some
lingering upslope flow induced showers going into tonight with a
gradual tapering off into early Saturday morning.

Much of the mountains look to only get in the 40s and 50s for max
temps today with mainly 60s in the Piedmont. Lows tonight should
generally drop down into the upper 30s to low 40s for the mountains
and mid to upper 40s for the Piedmont.

Forecast confidence is medium.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for windy conditions through Saturday before
fading Saturday night.

2) A low chance of showers and thunderstorms returns by late Sunday
for southeast West Virginia.

Gusty winds will continue through the day Saturday due to a strong
pressure gradient between low pressure deepening in eastern Canada
and high pressure in the lower Mississippi River Valley. Any
lingering upslope clouds will gradually fade from Boone to Lewisburg
Saturday morning, leaving most areas with mostly sunny skies.
Temps Saturday afternoon should finish near the seasonal normals.

High pressure should provide lighter winds Saturday night with fair
dry conditions persisting into the day Sunday.  By Sunday afternoon,
the surface high will drift off the southeast Atlantic coast,
southwest winds and warm air advection providing a notable bump in
the temperatures with widespread highs in the 70s. Meanwhile, a weak
frontal boundary will dive southeastward from the Great Lakes,
providing showers and a few thunderstorms to the northern mid-
Atlantic and potentially as far south as the I-64 Corridor Sunday
night.  This same front will stall over the area Monday before
retreating north as a warm front Tuesday.  Clouds associated with
the front may knock a few degrees off the potential high for the day
Monday, but still looking an an unseasonably warm day with
temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal norm.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Mainly Dry With Well Above Normal Temperatures

It is going to feel like early summer as 850 mb temps test +15 deg C
and supporting surface high temperatures in the 80s. Forecast models
agree in a building a ridge of high pressure over the southeast
CONUS, clockwise wind flow around the high maintaining warm air
advection for a multi-day period, persisting until Friday.
Subsidence should suppress shower activity in general, but can`t rule
out some isolated storms attms due to proximity of frontal systems
to our northwest.  Consensus is for a strong front to arrive by
Friday promoting a better chance for deep convection along with
cooling temperatures.

For Tuesday through Thursday, expecting high and low temperatures to
run 10-20 degrees above normal, then retreat to something more
seasonal on Friday.

Forecast confidence is high on warmer pattern and low to moderate on
rain chances which will be mainly confined to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

Showers should linger for the next few hours then taper off for
most sites except for around KLWB. Cigs mainly MVFR/IFR with
lowers in the western mountain sites. Behind the front there
could be some lifting of cigs later this morning but then looks
to lower back down by afternoon (KLYH and KDAN may have some VFR
improvements). Shower development returns back for the western
mountain sites this afternoon as well. Winds stay gusty through
the period out of the west to SW.

Forecast confidence is average.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night and Saturday, expect gusty northwest wind on the
west side of the exiting system with scattered to numerous upslope
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the mountains. Most
areas will trend to VFR east of the Blue Ridge.

By Sunday, VFR conditions are expected for all locations along
with weakening winds.

By Monday, a weak system may bring a return of some showers and
patchy sub-VFR conditions to Southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected.

Mainly VFR through Tuesday with a few showers/storms possible
north of LWB-HSP.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ009-012>020-
     022>024-032>035.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AB