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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190448 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures for Friday through Sunday.

- Normal to above normal temperatures for next week.

- Rain chances for Monday night into Wednesday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A surface cold front extends from near Joplin to near Stockton.
The front is advancing east with a warm front north of the
forecast area placing Southwest Missouri in the warm sector.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing along the
advancing cold front. Ahead of the front the environment remains
favorable for large hail and damaging winds. Mixed layer CAPE
values are near 1500 j/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear values near 45
knots and mid level lapse rates near 6 degrees Celsius. The
steepest lapse rates reside in central and eastern Missouri
favoring large hail. Storm relative helicity values are near 100
m2/s2 over south central Missouri. Will monitor storms closely
for tornado potential in this area.

With surface convergence increasing and the approach of an upper
level shortwave, thunderstorm coverage will increase through
the rest of the afternoon. Single to multicellular thunderstorms
are developing into line segments in central Missouri with
scattered elevated convection developing well ahead of the
front. The front will sweep west to east through the Ozarks with
the rain also ending west to east by early evening.

A dry and cool airmass will settle in behind the front.
Overnight lows will be in the 40s tonight with a northerly
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Surface high pressure will build from the Northern Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend with the cooler
and drier airmass bringing below normal temperatures through
Sunday.

A few rain showers will be possible over the weekend in far
southern Missouri with a shortwave moving through the Southern
Plains and isentropic lift increasing. Model trends have been
further and further south with the shortwave and if trends
continue may need to remove precipitation chances.

Southwest flow returns early next week bringing a warmup. A
shortwave trough digging into the Ohio Valley will push a front
into the Ozarks mid week bringing better chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Confidence is high that MVFR ceilings will persist for the first
few hours of the TAF period, lasting the longest at BBG.
Ceilings will then lift to VFR for the rest of Friday with
passing high clouds at times. Gusty north winds will decrease
through the morning and afternoon, turning northeasterly with
time. Low level wind shear is also possible for the first few
hours of the TAF period however its currently too marginal to
include at this time.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Angle
LONG TERM...Angle
AVIATION...Burchfield