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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180715
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
215 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong surface high is forecast to dive south across the Great
Plains today. Ahead of it, a surface low will eject out of
central Oklahoma leaving a frontal boundary in its wake along the
interface of the approaching surface high. South winds around 10
mph will continue to advect gulf moisture and support warm
temperatures in the 80s across the ArkLaTex today, aiding in
further destabilizing the environment ahead of the front. Aloft,
a shortwave trough will move across the ArkLaTex. Convergence
along and ahead of the frontal boundary at the time of peak
heating, combined with destabilization aloft with the approaching
short-wave trough, will allow for deep convection across the I-30
corridor. Supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats during the late afternoon and
early evening hours across these areas.

Storms to gradually diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight
low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the lower 50s
north of the front and mid 60s south.

Frontal boundary forecast to stall south of I-20 on Friday. Highs
on Friday will range from the mid 60s across southeast Oklahoma
and southwest Arkansas to the mid 80s across portions of north
Louisiana. Near zonal flow aloft will allow for widespread cloud-
cover and the possibility for a few stray showers north of the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Wet conditions expected through the weekend as an upper-level
disturbance shifts east across central Texas into the ArkLaTex.
Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms expected from
Friday night through Sunday morning. A seasonably cold surface
high will at the same time build across the region maintaining
north winds 10 to 15 mph on Saturday and Sunday. With the surface
becoming centered across the region late in the weekend, high
temperatures on Sunday to average in the 60s. Lows on Monday
morning will average in the 40s.

Surface high to shift east allowing for southerly winds to return
to the region on Monday. By Wednesday, high temperatures will
have rebounded into the low to mid 80s. Models have yet to come
into agreement concerning the synoptic pattern from midweek
onward with the GFS bringing widespread rain to the region ahead
of a southward moving frontal boundary within an upper-level
northwest flow regime. Other long range models suggest a drier
forecast, to which seems much more realistic considering northwest
flow to prevail aloft. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

For the 18/12Z TAF update, a mixture of MVFR/IFR cigs with VCSH
and VCTS (likely by the end of the period) will continue to exist
through the period as a result of prolonged, moist southerly
surface flow. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  67  79  64 /  30  20  20  30
MLU  85  66  79  62 /  40  10  20  20
DEQ  83  55  68  52 /  20  60  20  60
TXK  84  61  70  57 /  20  70  20  50
ELD  83  62  71  54 /  40  40  20  30
TYR  85  62  75  63 /  20  30  20  30
GGG  85  64  77  62 /  30  20  20  30
LFK  88  67  86  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16