663
FXUS64 KSJT 011934
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
234 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Evening...

Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across far west
Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline
during peak heating this afternoon, with storms moving eastward
across the area during the evening hours. Initial storms are
expected to be discrete, with supercells likely, then storms
should become more linear with time as they push east across the
area. Latest meso-analysis shows SBCAPES between 3000-4000 J/kg,
which will support intense updrafts with any storms that develop.
Effective shear is currently around 25 kts, but is expected to
increase this evening as a shortwave approaches from the west.
This will result in more widespread thunderstorm development later
this evening. Very strong instability, coupled with steep lapse
rates will support large to very large hail with any supercells
initially, along with a tornado threat. Storms should gradually
become more outflow dominant as they move eastward with time,
with damaging winds becoming more of a concern. Storms should
exit far southeast counties between 2 and 3 AM, although some
lingering showers may remain for a bit longer across eastern
portions of the forecast area.

Thunderstorms will possible again Thursday afternoon and evening,
as the dryline sets of across central sections and a weak cold
front enters the Big Country during the late afternoon hours. In
addition, several outflow boundaries will likely be present.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along any of these
features tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Very strong
instability will occur east of the dryline and south of the
front, along with deep layer shear between 35 and 40 kts. These
parameters will support severe storms capable of producing large
to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The
greatest risk for severe storms tomorrow will be across the
eastern two thirds of the Big Country, eastern portions of the
Concho Valley and the Heartland counties.

As for temperatures, expect lows tonight in the mid and upper
60s, with highs Thursday mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
However, a few readings in the mid 90s will be possible across
the western Concho Valley west of the dryline.

&&



LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at
122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our
central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big
Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening
hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of the dryline. Most
of this activity should be confined to our eastern counties. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main hazards.

Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big
Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower
90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday,
although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the remnant cold front in the region.

Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest
flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher rain
chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler, generally in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are expected next week
with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday will be in the low
to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the approaching the upper 90s
in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly looking at VFR ceilings around 5K feet this afternoon,
with south to southeast winds gusting 20 to 25 knots. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline to our
west late this afternoon and move east across the terminals
through the evening hours. Some of the storms may become strong
to severe, with damaging winds and hail the main hazards. Will
maintain TEMPO groups at the terminals for convection based on
latest high resolution model data. Convection will end from west
to east between 05Z-07Z. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop across
the terminals late tonight into Thursday morning, with some
possible IFR ceilings across the southern terminals after 10Z. For
now, will keep ceilings MVFR due to lower confidence in IFR
conditions

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     64  90  62  86 /  70  10  20  30
San Angelo  64  94  65  91 /  70  10   0  30
Junction    66  90  69  92 /  70  10  10  30
Brownwood   65  86  66  85 /  80  20  20  20
Sweetwater  64  90  62  86 /  70  10  10  30
Ozona       66  92  65  89 /  50  10   0  30
Brady       66  87  67  86 /  80  10  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...24