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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 130956
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
356 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Another warm day is on tap across the region. A more
active pattern will build into the area Sunday into Monday.
Unsettled conditions may remain across portions of northern Utah
into midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Monday)...It felt a lot more like summer
than mid-April Friday...and it will be another warm day today.
Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates a large
upper level low off the central California Coast, with
southwesterly flow building into the Great Basin. Upper level
ridging continues to shift away from the region.

Expect drier air to build into the state today, in association
with the previously mentioned southwesterly flow. While
temperatures won`t be quite as warm as yesterday in many
locations, still expect temperatures on average around 10-15+
degrees above normal.

As the upper level low shifts eastward Sunday, a mainly dry
boundary will shift into Utah during the afternoon. About 15% of
the guidance suggests a threat of showers or even a thunderstorm
across the northern and central mountains with this boundary prior
to the beginning of the long term forecast period.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Monday)...An upper low will be situated
across the Great Basin by early Sunday evening, with a couple of
shortwave features rotating around the mean circulation center.
One such wave, which will have lifted across NV during the day
Sunday, will leave a north-south oriented baroclinic zone
stretched across Utah. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough rounding the
base of the mean circulation will be crossing the southern Great
Basin/lower Colorado River valley late Sunday afternoon. This wave
will induce low level cyclogenesis along the aforementioned
baroclinic zone Sunday evening, with the resultant 700mb
circulation lifting through central Utah Sunday night, before
continuing east Monday leaving a region of wrap-around moisture
across the forecast area through Monday. With this setup,
precipitation will begin filling in along the length of the
baroclinic zone, from near the Idaho through central and southwest
Utah Sunday evening, then become persistent and focused near the
track of the 700mb circulation across central Utah Sunday night,
before transitioning to areas favored in northwest flow within
this region of wrap around moisture Monday. Snow levels will
remain in the 6000-6500 foot range through much of the event.
Given the favorable period of forcing have increased QPF, with the
maxima focused on the Pahvant and Tushar ranges situated just
east of I-15 in central Utah. Daytime snowfall with a mid April
sun angle will likely limit the overall impact of snowfall, but
amounts in the 5-10 inch range across the higher terrain, and
locally higher amounts in the Pahvants/Tushars, winter wx
headlines may be necessary.

00Z guidance has continued to trend away from a deep trough
across the Interior west, and now strongly favors a much more
northern track with the midweek northern stream trough. 80% of
ensemble members across the GEFS, EPS and GEPS only push a shallow
dry cold front through northern Utah midweek, while 20% of
members hold onto a deeper, colder trough carving into the Great
Basin. As such have maintained slight chance Pops across the north
while keeping a dry forecast across central and southern Utah.
With the much less amplified solution looking more likely, max
temperatures through the long range exhibit a slight warming
trend, running near to slightly above clime Tuesday, then climbing
1-3 degrees each day thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southerly winds will continue through the
morning, with gusts increasing between 14-16Z. There is a less
than a 15% chance of a wind shift to the northwest after 19Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mainly VFR conditions will
continue across the state through the day.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Seaman

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
