884
FXUS01 KWBC 142001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Valid 00Z Wed May 15 2024 - 00Z Fri May 17 2024

...Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast today...

...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas
this week ...

...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East
Texas and Louisiana on Thursday...

A fairly weak frontal system centered over the Missouri Bootheel
continues to drive wet and unsettled weather east of the
Mississippi River today, with several areas of shower and
thunderstorm activity noted across the eastern half of the Lower
48. Through tomorrow morning, the Storm Prediction Center
maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather across the Tennessee
Valley and over North-Central Florida as thunderstorms organize
and intensify this afternoon. Severe hail and wind remain the
primary concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible.
Isolated flash flooding also can not be ruled out with some of
these storms along the slow moving front, with localized rainfall
of 1-3" possible.

Across South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an
approaching mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm
weather beginning tomorrow, with heat indices exceeding 100
degrees possible. Localized Major heat-related impacts are
possible with this round of hot weather through the work week
according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. Hazardous heat
also will build into South Texas tomorrow and Thursday as a warm
front returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in a
very warm and moist airmass into the region.

Heat aside, this returning warm front will also set the stage for
potentially significant heavy rainfall across East Texas and
Louisiana on Thursday as training thunderstorms focus along the
frontal boundary. The current forecast calls for areal rainfall
totals of 3-4" (locally higher) in this region, which has seen a
near continuous stream of heavy rainfall over the last two weeks
and is particularly sensitive to any additional rain. Accordingly,
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect on the Day 3 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook, which suggests numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely Thursday into Friday.

Asherman

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$