885
FXUS62 KTAE 011411
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1011 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast is mainly on track for this morning. The PoPs have been
updated to better show current conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms in our central time zone counties will likely
continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon
hours. The stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. The
cluster of storms is expected to slowly move eastward towards the
Apalachicola Basin this morning before dropping southward into the
Gulf.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A well defined shortwave trough extends southeast through the Mid
South towards the northern Gulf coast. East of this feature,
shortwave ridging is located across the Florida peninsula north
towards the southern Appalachians. These two feature will slowly
work eastward today. As the trough moves closer through the day,
higher moisture content and PWATs will also move east as the 1.8 to
nearly 2 inch PWATs edge out the drier 1.2 PWATs associated with
the ridge moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase
in southern Alabama closer to the trough where the higher PWATs are
currently located and aided by diffluence aloft and increasing
instability.

As the morning moves along, expect these bands of convection to move
into or develop over our western Florida panhandle and southeast
Alabama areas. This is where our highest rain chances are located
through the morning into early afternoon hours. Instability will
increase this morning in this area and although the deep layer shear
is on the weaker side, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are
possible and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe weather
across our central time zone counties. Further east of this area,
curtailed rain chances sharply in line with recent CAMs showing a
possible weakening trend and trajectory into the Gulf waters of this
line/bands of convection with slight chance towards the I75 corridor.

Heavy rain could also be a concern as the morning goes, especially
if convective banding sets up and training of storms takes place,
especially in coastal sections of Walton and Bay counties. Reference
hydro section for specificity of rainfall amounts but generally 1-3
inches is possible with locally higher amounts.

Due to the increase clouds and rain coverage, dropped highs several
degrees today and in line with MOS guidance west of
Albany/Tallahassee line and common highs will be in the low 80s as
compared to mid/upper 80s further east where some sun will persist
into the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A weaker shortwave passes through the area on Sunday, bringing
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest
chance for showers and storms (50-70%) will be over the western two-
thirds of the area with lower chances (30-40%) closer to the
Suwannee River and I-75. However, tomorrow`s storm evolution will
greatly depend on where the outflow boundaries from today`s storms
ultimately set up. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests this could
be closer to closer to Apalachee Bay where the higher rain chances
end up. Will monitor trends to see how much adjustment is needed to
Sunday`s forecast.

If storms do get going on Sunday, then there is the potential for
some locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds.
Instability will be sufficient, and we`ll have about 20 kt of deep
layer shear, which is enough for summertime convection to become
strong. Additionally, PWATs will still be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch
range, which could result in efficient rain producers Sunday
afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle to upper
80s with lows near 70.

By Monday, we`ll return to a more diurnal pattern with ridging
starting to nose its way into our area. Thus, most storms will be
along the sea breeze. Highs will climb back in the lower 90s with

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Ridging starts to take over the southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday
before more troughing returns for late in the week. This ridging
will help keep a lid on most storms, and the best rain chances will
generally shift to the eastern parts of our area where the Nature
Coast sea breeze will collide with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze.
High temperatures will climb back toward the lower to middle 90s
with heat index values of 99 to 105. Lows will also climb into the
lower to middle 70s. As troughing develops over the eastern US late
in the week, a cold front will approach our area. This will lead to
increasing rain chances Thursday into Friday, though temperatures
will still remain hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Convection continues over south Alabama with a slow eastward
progression anticipated through the morning and early afternoon
hours. TAFs were kept mostly the same but added VCSH at ECP
beginning at 12Z as some SHRA activity has been moving in and out
of the aerodrome. Used a variety of CAM guidance for timing of
convection into DHN/ECP with a PROB30 remaining at TLH for TSRA
this afternoon. Confidence remains on the lower side for TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The strong southeasterly nocturnal surge from overnight will
continue through mid to late morning before subsiding this
afternoon or evening. In our western waters, showers and
thunderstorms (some will be strong) will be driving up winds and
seas. Advisory level winds with gusts of 30 kt have been evident
this morning and isolated gusts up to 35 kt are possible. Buoy
42036 has seen waves approaching 7 feet this morning, which is a
good implication for the Small Craft Advisory needing to continue
into the afternoon. Seas will then begin to settle from 3 to 6
feet today back to 1 to 3 feet from Sunday onward. Beyond today,
winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast at
5 to 10 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
afternoon hours, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany areas
into the southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle areas.
Showers have developed already early this morning across portions of
these areas and will continue as a mid level disturbance approaches
the region. Low chances for rain exist further east towards the I75
corridor but the probability is low. A mix of sun and clouds is
expected through the day outside of rain. Transport winds and
dispersions appear favorable today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the far western Florida
Panhandle today, possibly extending up into the Wiregrass of
southeast Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible
over the Central Time Zone counties with the highest amounts near
the coast and especially to the west of our forecast area. Some
localized totals of 3 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out, especially
where we see training bands of thunderstorms. This could result in
some localized flash flooding, especially this morning and
afternoon. While the better signal is certainly off to our west, we
can`t entirely rule out some higher-end rainfall in coastal parts of
Walton and Bay Counties. Our Central Time Zone counties are in a
Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4).

Abundant moisture remains in place across the area on Sunday as
well, though the signal for training storms is not as defined. But,
locally heavy downpours certainly cannot be ruled out, which could
cause some nuisance flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for
widespread heavy rainfall greatly diminish.

Our river systems should remain relatively unscathed by this
rainfall as the heaviest will likely fall near the mouth of the
Choctawhatchee River.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  70  86  69 /  30  20  60  10
Panama City   82  72  85  72 /  80  30  50  10
Dothan        82  67  85  69 /  70  30  60  10
Albany        86  68  86  68 /  40  30  50  10
Valdosta      88  67  87  68 /  10  20  40  10
Cross City    91  67  89  68 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  83  74  84  73 /  60  30  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730-
     755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750-
     752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Young/Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Young