Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221855
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
We are ending this week on a soggy and cloudy note due to a low
pressure system that continues to spin in the Gulf of Mexico. This
is helping to bring rounds of light to moderate rain to the west
coast of Florida. Even though the showers have been on going for
most of the day in some locations totals have been generally staying
below 2 inches. Currently on radar we still have another round of
showers about 20 miles away from the coast that is heading our way.
Once again the heaviest showers should be in Southwest Florida with
more lighter showers in West Central Florida.
Showers will be completely done by midnight however we will have one
final shot of an isolated shower or two Saturday morning as the
front drags across the state. After the gloomy morning sunshine
should be returning throughout the day with highs approaching 80
degrees. A secondary cold front will push through early Sunday. No
showers expected with it but it will help to bring some slightly
cooler for Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70`s and lows
monday morning in the 50`s.
High pressure will be sitting over the area for early next week with
a quick warm up heading our way. Highs by Tuesday will reach the mid
to upper 80`s. Our next system is expected to push through starting
late on Wednesday into early Thursday morning morning. This one is
expected to bring some scattered showers to the area with once again
some slightly cooler air behind it.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
We will see on and off showers throughout the day at our TAF
sites. Showers should be ending between 03-06z. We can expect
mainly VFR conditions outside of brief MVFR CIGS and MVFR/IFR
Visibility due to heavy showers. Winds will mainly be out of a
southerly direction and will be gusting out of the south
throughout the daytime hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
After a very windy morning and afternoon winds have started
to slowly drop down and that will be the trend for the rest of the
today. A secondary cold front will be pushing through late Saturday
and into Sunday morning. This will shift winds to the northeast and
bring gusty winds back into the forecast starting late Saturday
night with another Small Craft Advisory most likely needing to be
issued. Winds will start to die down by Sunday evening and shift to
the north and northwest. Winds will shift to the southeast by Monday
but winds will still stay breezy with speeds around 10 to 15 knots.
These conditions will continue through Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Low pressure over the area will keep these moist through
Saturday. A secondary cold front will push through on Sunday which
will drop RHs into the low to mid 40`s and bring sunshine back into
the forecast. No fire weather concerns are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 79 60 77 / 40 20 0 0
FMY 66 81 61 79 / 80 30 0 0
GIF 64 80 59 76 / 60 20 0 0
SRQ 67 78 62 79 / 60 20 0 0
BKV 60 77 56 77 / 40 20 0 0
SPG 66 76 63 76 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Charlotte
Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis