Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
894 FXXX10 KWNP 020031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2024 May 02 May 03 May 04 00-03UT 2.33 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 3.33 3.33 2.33 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 09-12UT 2.33 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 3.33 3.33 4.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.33 4.33 21-00UT 4.33 3.67 4.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024 May 02 May 03 May 04 S1 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and its current location. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024 May 02 May 03 May 04 R1-R2 55% 40% 30% R3 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654 and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654 rotates off the visible disk.