016
FXUS63 KTOP 031745
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of thunderstorms moves in from the west around/after
  midnight tonight, with potential for a few strong to severe
  storms.

- Greater potential for severe weather Monday as a strong upper
  trough approaches.

- Temperatures remain near to a bit above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A brief break in rain chances this morning, as high pressure has
moved in across the region. Light winds and clear skies, along with
lingering moisture from our recent rain, have allowed for some
patchy fog to develop in lower lying areas. This will linger until
an hour or two after sunrise when deeper mixing occurs. The daytime
hours will remain dry and mostly sunny, with temperatures warming
into the 70s. Can`t completely rule out an evening storm north of I-
70 as CIN lowers with increasing moisture/heating, but the better
storm chances arrive later overnight as a cold front approaches from
the west. There is increasing confidence that a line of storms will
initially be ongoing across northwestern Kansas, moving into north-
central Kansas after midnight. Given around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
30-40 kts of shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible.
The linear storm mode will keep damaging winds as the primary severe
threat, with some isolated quarter size hail also possible. CIN
increases with time and eastward extent, so expecting a gradual
decrease in severe probabilities while the line moves across
northeast and east-central Kansas. The front then moves east of the
area by late morning Saturday. Just a few lingering shower chances
by Saturday afternoon as cooler and drier air is advected southward.

More rain chances arrive Sunday with a weak shortwave passing just
to our south. Instability remains very limited so not expecting much
if any severe weather. Severe weather chances significantly increase
for Monday as a deep upper low becomes negatively tilted as it
ejects eastward over the central Plains. Guidance is in good
agreement in 65-68 degree dewpoints ahead of the dryline/cold front,
supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. One possible fly in the
ointment would be if the strong upper forcing allows morning or
early afternoon convection to develop and decrease instability for
the afternoon. But otherwise, wind profiles strongly support
supercells. These would initially develop off the dryline across
central Kansas during the afternoon, moving northeast during the
evening, and would be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. Several days to allow the details to come into place, but
certainly a day to watch.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the deep upper trough becomes centered over
the Northern Plains, with several embedded shortwaves moving around
its southern periphery. By this point, roughly 80% of ensemble
guidance keeps the now quasi-stationary front southeast of the area.
This would also keep severe weather chances southeast of our area,
with temperatures staying near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Cloud cover will increase this afternoon. A few models are
showing MVFR conditions, while others are not. Have kept VFR
conditions through the afternoon for now, but will amend if CIGS
are lower than currently expected. TS will be the next concern
as a line of storms is expected to impact airports late
tonight/early Saturday morning. Timing may need to be tweaked
slightly, but current thinking for impact timing is the 09-12Z
timeframe as storms move from west to east across the area. Wind
gusts to 30kts can`t be ruled out with storms, with isolated
higher gusts. Lingering MVFR CIGS could occur through the
morning hours before VFR returns late this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Teefey