Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 221957
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1257 PM PDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southwest winds are expected across much of the
area Saturday, lingering through Sunday in San Bernardino County.
Expect an increasing chance for showers, with higher chances near
and north of Las Vegas, which could bring several inches of snow to
the Sierra Nevada range. Cooler temperatures will settle in over the
area this weekend, then warm back to late March averages by the
middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Late morning mid level water
vapor loop showed complex upper low centered near 41N 130W with
several shortwave troughs pinwheeling around it. A swath of high
clouds ahead of it was traversing our area, and will exit to the
east by sunset. As the low approaches the Oregon coast Saturday,
winds will be the primary story across our area. As noted by
previous shifts, winds will start to crank up over Inyo County this
evening, spread across the western and central Mojave Desert
Saturday, and linger over much of San Bernardino County through
Sunday. NBM and HREF data show fairly narrow spreads between 10th
and 90th percentile wind gusts in the advisory area tomorrow, with
median gusts right around advisory criteria, so plan no changes to
the advisory area at this time. The Winter Weather Advisory in the
Sierra also looks good; it is primarily for windblown snow and not
for snow amounts per se, and everything still points to light snow
falling while strong winds are occurring. Snowfall concerns for the
Spring Mountains, which were already low, have fallen even lower
with this model run. The probabilities for measurable rain in Las
Vegas are less than 20 percent, but this does not account for trace
amounts of rain, which look like a better bet. High temperatures
will fall 10 to 20 degrees areawide between today and Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Model ensembles indicate a progressive pattern will result in a
weather roller coaster for the coming week across the western US as
additional large Pacific troughs line up to move inland. There are
considerable differences in timing and strength of these systems
among ensemble members, so details will become a little more clear
with time. However, a description of general expectations follows.

Monday will see a cool northwest flow over our region in the wake of
the weekend system pulling away. Limited moisture and instability
may produce a few showers mainly over south central Nevada including
northern Lincoln County while the rest of the forecast area
experiences northwest breezes and temperatures 5-7 degrees below
normal.

An induced ridge between troughs will migrate over our region
Tuesday and early Wednesday leading to a brief warmup. The next
system swings across our region late Wednesday through early
Thursday with widespread gusty winds 25 to 35 mph and chances for
showers mainly for the Southern Sierra and south central Nevada.

This will be followed by another ridge Friday ahead of what looks to
be a large closed low winding up to come inland next weekend. High
and low temperatures will only fluctuate 3-5 degrees during the week
with readings generally a few to several degrees below normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will pick up
and shift to the southwest this afternoon. These breezier
southwesterly winds will continue into the evening hours, with a
brief lull in wind gusts late tonight through early Saturday
morning. Strong gusty southwesterly winds will return early Saturday
morning and will persist throughout the day. Vicinity showers will
be possible in the higher terrain around the valley beginning late
Saturday morning, continuing into the afternoon hours. Low
probability and low confidence in these showers making it off the
higher terrain and to the terminal area.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy southwesterly winds will pick up across the Las
Vegas valley this afternoon. There will be a brief lull in
southwesterly breezes overnight before gust southwesterly winds pick
back up early Saturday morning. Vicinity showers will be possible in
the higher terrain around the valley beginning late Saturday
morning, continuing into the afternoon hours. Winds at KDAG will
favor a west-southwesterly direction, with 20-25 knot wind gusts
expected through Saturday morning. Winds at the Colorado River
Valley TAF sites will favor a more southerly direction with 20-25
knot wind gusts this afternoon. These gusts will drop off during the
evening hours before returning on Saturday morning. Winds at KBIH
will swing from their more typical southeasterly upvalley winds to
the southwest with 15-20 knot gusts picking up during the early
afternoon hours. These breezy southwesterly winds will continue into
the evening hours before dropping off and shifting to the northwest,
in a typical diurnal fashion. Beyond 03Z confidence in wind
direction is low due to models struggling to resolve wind speed and
direction in the Owens Valley. Showers will develop in the Sierra
and White Mountains around KBIH, with them moving into the vicinity
of the terminal around 12Z. Low confidence as to whether or not
these showers will make it to the terminal at this time.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Stessman

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