Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 071731
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON! A NICE SOAKING RAINFALL
FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH WAS MUCH-NEEDED AFTER OUR RECENT 7-10 DAY
STRETCH OF DRYNESS. BEST POST-FRONTAL JET FORCING IS NOW EXITING
TO THE EAST AND NORTH...TAKING OF COURSE THE RAIN SHIELD WITH IT
ALL WHILE MUCH DRIER AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EXITING FAR EASTERN SPOTS
BEFORE NOON...AND THICKER POST-FRONTAL STRATUS LIKELY MIXING UP
INTO MORE OF A CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK BEFORE ERODING
ALTOGETHER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON (MAY STILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME
FOR EASTERN AREAS). DECENT MIXING COURTESY OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE GUSTINESS FOR ALL
AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
(AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) AS DEW POINTS MIX THROUGH THE 40S
(MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 30S?). NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING
FORECAST...SAVE FOR A LONGER EXTENSION OF CLOUD COVER EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN N CENTRAL AND
NE LOWER THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

COLD FRONT IS NEAR A ROGERS CITY-HTL LINE AS OF THIS TYPING. SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN A BAND EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES ARE STARTING TO DRY OUT. THUNDER HAS BEEN
MINIMAL. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ADVANCING EASTWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS. PRECIP/SKY
COVER/WIND TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM.

TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS THRU 12Z. IN NW SECTIONS...SHRA WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 12Z/8AM...EXPECT PRECIP TO BE LARGELY
DONE IN EASTERN UPPER MI...ON DOWN TO THE GD TRAV BAY REGION. BUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ONGOING NEAR AND SE OF AN HTL-APN
LINE....JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING SAGINAW
BAY. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR A SOLID INCH OF RAIN THIS MORNING IN SE
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES SE. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z/2PM.

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER (THOUGH NOT A COMPLETE
OVERCAST) WELL TO OUR NW...TO NORTH OF SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE SEEING
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THIS MORNING...EVEN WELL BEHIND THE PRECIP
AREA. WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS JULY SUN
GOES TO WORK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY IN
EXPOSED LOCALES.

TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE BECOME CELLULAR CU BY
EARLY EVENING...AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO WI...EXTENDING RIDGING INTO LOWER MI. THE EXITED COLD FRONT
WILL STILL BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED CIRRUS MAY CLIP AREAS NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECOUPLE AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
THE RESULT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MORE OR LESS HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH AT BAY. A MORE MOIST RETURN FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL BUT WILL CENTER AROUND HOW QUICKLY WE WARM UP.

WEDNESDAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT TO
OUR SOUTH (AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING ALONG IT)
AT BAY. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE RISE LEADING
TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED THURSDAY. LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MAINLY THE 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WARMER AND MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE (GFS MORE MOIST) AND THE EXTENT OF WARMING (GFS MUCH
WARMER) ARE IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY BE DELAYED (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST). WILL CONTINUE THE
SLOW WARMING TREND AS WELL BUT NOT GET TOO CRAZY WITH RAISING HIGHS
JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOWER STRATUS
IS MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCUMULUS DECK...WITH CURRENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KAPN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY 20Z...WHILE ALL OTHER
SITES SEE ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3-4KFT CEILINGS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THOSE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT...
WITH LAKE BREEZES FIRING UP TOWARD MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING NORTHERN
LOWER MI. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY UP FOR PART OF THE NE
LOWER MI COAST...ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONSIDERED.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346>348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JAZ



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