Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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139
FXUS64 KBMX 081135
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR ALL SITES...WITH THE NORTH
STAYING IN THE 40S AND THE SOUTH RISING INTO THE 50S. WE SHOULD
START TO SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP BY NOON AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THAT IS WHEN THE FUN BEGINS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO OR GENERATES IN THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROZEN ALOFT AND THEN
MOVE DOWN THE COLUMN. WITH THE SHOWERY CONVECTION SETUP THAT APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING THE COLDER AIR
DOWN ALONG WITH IT SO THE SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE
ONCE IT GETS GOING. QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE CAN THE PRECIPITATION
START BY SUNSET OR WILL IT BEGIN AFTER SUNSET.

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PRECIPITATION DOWN A TOUCH SO WILL BEGIN
THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM IN THE NORTH AND THEN SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON. THE GOOD THING WE
HAVE GOING IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
TO FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 9 TO 10 PM SO ANY SNOW BAND
THAT DEVELOPS AFTER THIS TIME WILL HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO
STICK TO GRASSY SURFACES...CAR TOPS...AND HIGHER ELEVATED
SURFACES. IT IS GOING TO REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT
EXACTLY WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANYTHING MORE
THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION IN THE HWO
FOR NOW. WITH THAT SAID...AT THIS TIME THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE BEST TIME FRAME TO BE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM ACROSS
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...WE
WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE MONITORED. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD HELP BLOW ANY SNOW AROUND AND MAY MAKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EVEN MORE UNLIKELY.

16

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FURTHER AS A SECOND COLD
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LOW WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO
GIVE US THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW OF MUCH ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

A TAD COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM RETREATS. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER TO THE EAST BUT AT LEAST THE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS ANY MOISTURE LEFT FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE NUDGES FURTHER INTO EASTERN
CONUS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT TO SEE MODERATING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA THAT WILL AIDE
IN WEAKENING THE RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN AROUND DUE TO THE RETREATING RIDGE
AND ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SET UP BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. A COLDER AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE
STATE FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS (1045MB) LATE FRIDAY
SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THEREFORE REMAIN PREDOMINANT. WINDS SLOWLY
SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS 13-15Z. AT THIS
POINT...WILL ADD CEILINGS 4-5K FT. THE CHANCED OF A SHOWER WITH
THE FRONT IS LOW AND IT WILL ALSO TRACK BY QUICKLY... THEREFORE NO
MENTION. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE 13 TO
23KT RANGE AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. AS THE VERY COLD AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT AFTER 21Z...EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
STATE. AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING AND TERMINALS AFFECTED HAVE TOO
LOW A PROBABILITY FOR MENTION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...WITH THE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  26  35  22  35 /  30  40  30  10   0
ANNISTON    51  28  36  23  37 /  30  40  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  48  27  36  23  40 /  20  30  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  48  26  40  25  43 /  20  20  10   0   0
CALERA      50  28  38  25  41 /  20  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      54  29  39  26  42 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  31  43  27  47 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        58  28  43  28  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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