Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 282117
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A NICE BREAK IN THE RAIN TODAY HAS ALLOWED THE CREEKS AND STREAMS
TO RECEDE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A COLUMBUS
MISSISSIPPI TO JASPER ALABAMA LINE AT 2PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY
EASTWARD TONIGHT OR MONDAY...UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
PASSES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN PUSHES OUT
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ALL DAY. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ONCE THE MAIN PURE LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
PASSES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE 1050MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY NORTH OF
ALABAMA...BUT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR WELL EAST THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM. LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD
REACH NORTH ALABAMA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S...SO NO ICING ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. AN INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS COOLER AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THE MAIN RAIN AREA WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH OF
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING SURFACE LOW. THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THERE WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY AS THE GFS HANGS UP THE SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHILE THE ECMWF PULLS THE MOISTURE OUT
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL CURRENTLY EXITING THE AREA BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN IFR WITH MAYBE A WINDOW OF MVFR AT
TOI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIFR VERY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD TAKE ON A WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  56  37  52  29 / 100  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    46  60  41  54  31 / 100  20  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  44  56  39  52  30 / 100  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  55  39  55  30 / 100  20  10  10  10
CALERA      45  59  41  55  32 / 100  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      51  64  44  58  36 /  80  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  51  65  44  60  35 /  90  20  10  10   0
TROY        53  65  44  61  36 /  80  40  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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