Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 241735 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016
For 18Z Aviation.
Today and Tonight.
Deep layer ridge keeping things dry and rather warm again today.
We`ll start out with temps in the 40s at daybreak, but a quick warm
up is expected with highs rising into the low 80s in most locations,
which is back to above normal. Remnants of the weak frontal boundary
currently near the Ohio River will slide southward into the area
tonight before dissipating. No impacts expected, just too dry. Lows
tonight will be a tad warmer (mid 40s to low 50s) as radiational
cooling will not be as strong and due to the slight increase in dew
points with the dissipating boundary.
Tuesday through Sunday.
As we move into Tuesday, a decaying front will exit to the
southeast and help to bring a wedge of cooler air to the northeast
counties as ridging builds from Quebec into the Mid Atlantic
States. However, we are not looking at a huge push of cold air
into the area as low level flow is expected to turn around quickly
across Alabama from the north back to east and southeast.
By Wednesday, we continue to see an approaching upper shortwave
swing across the Central U.S. and across Alabama Wednesday night
into Thursday along with another decaying surface boundary.
Moisture looks meager, but there will likely be enough lift and
forcing for some light showers Wednesday night into Thursday, but
not enough to make a dent in our current rainfall shortage. We
should see milder overnight temperatures for Wednesday night with
extra cloud cover and southeast flow.
After Thursday, solutions vary with another possible scraping
front on Friday across the northeast counties. We get even larger
disagreement in solutions over the weekend with one solution
indicating a possible decent passage and cold air advection and
another showing a slower trending stagnant flow. I`m leaning
toward the slower progression of any weekend into next week system
as the upper flow going into it behind the upper shortwave is weak
with zonal/west northwest flow and not showing any digging support
until possibly the beginning of next week at best. With that said,going
toward the warmer side of guidance for temperatures over the
weekend and keeping things there dry.
18Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period as ridging remains
dominant over the Southeast CONUS. Expect passing high clouds with
NW winds this afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening and be
calm overnight. Winds will become easterly Tuesday, but remain
Relative humidity values will fall to critical values (25%) for a
few hours this afternoon, but winds will be light. Values will be
slightly higher on Tuesday afternoon and continue to trend
slightly higher for Wednesday afternoon. Only small rain chances
are forecast Wednesday night into Thursday. Extremely dry ground
and vegetation will continue to promote a much higher than normal
risk of wildfires.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 81 45 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 83 49 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 83 51 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 83 50 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 82 51 82 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 82 52 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 83 52 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 82 47 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0