Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 022330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A VFR FORECAST. A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE ROTATING WESTWARD NEAR TOI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME
CIRRUS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  95  67  96  71 /   0  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  95  68  96  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  95  72  98  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  97  71  99  74 /   0  10   0  10  10
CALERA      66  94  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  93  72  95  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  97  71  98  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
TROY        70  96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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