Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 280454
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016
For 06Z Aviation.
A weak upper low pressure area will continue to track generally
northward along the Mississippi River tonight. Ongoing showers, and
some storms, will gradually decrease in coverage thru the evening
hours, with the best chances remaining west of Interstate 65. With
moisture still in place and isentropic upglide setting up once
again, it looks like we could see a recurrence of a stratus deck
closer to sunrise across the northern portions of the forecast area.
Just like we saw today, this cloud cover could keep highs in the
mid/upper 80s for some locations on Thursday.
The weak upper low will be absorbed into the upper trough
(currently over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest region)
later tonight, with the trough slowly advancing eastward. The
upper ridge centered just off the East Coast will gradually break
down, with troughing dominating the eastern CONUS by the weekend.
An uptick in convective coverage is anticipated across the
northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area on
Thursday/Friday as the trough approaches. Several impulses riding
eastward within the westerlies will lead to at least scattered
showers/storms over the weekend and into early next week. The best
coverage will generally come during the afternoons/evenings each
Thanks to slightly lower heights, cloud cover and convection,
temperatures will be closer to normal during much of the period.
Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, with lows
hanging out in the low/mid 70s.
Looking into the extended, models indicate that the Desert Southwest
upper ridge will begin to build slightly eastward by Tue/Wed, which
could lead to a slight increase in temps and decrease in overall
06Z TAF Discussion.
The shwrs have dissipated across central Alabama. Increasing
southwest low level flow will produce decent isentropic lift
overnight and mvfr cigs already being reported at KBHM and KTCL.
The cigs will start out arnd 2000-2500 feet agl and eventually
lower to between 1000-1500 feet agl by 10z. low level ridging
across southeast Alabama will likely keep prevent lower cigs from
developing at KMGM or KTOI, but could some sct-bkn cigs arnd 3000
feet agl. A low level cyclonic circulation near the MS river will
track northeast overnight and likely bring some showers into nw
Alabama by 12z. The shwrs will quickly spread eastward between 12z
and 15z and possibly reach KTCL and KBHM. Any MVFR cigs early in
the morning will likely become vfr by 16z or 17z. Daytime heating
will result in sct tstms after 18z. Rain chances too low across
southeast Alabama to include wx at KMGM or KTOI.
Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend, with the exception of
Thursday when southwesterly sustained winds will be in the 10-15
mph range. Since surface dew points are so high, critical fire
weather thresholds are not expected to be met, with no watches or
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 72 88 71 89 71 / 20 40 30 50 30
Anniston 72 90 71 90 72 / 20 30 30 40 30
Birmingham 74 87 73 90 74 / 20 40 30 40 30
Tuscaloosa 73 90 72 92 74 / 10 50 30 40 30
Calera 73 89 72 91 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
Auburn 73 93 73 91 74 / 20 20 20 20 20
Montgomery 74 96 74 95 75 / 20 20 20 30 20
Troy 72 94 72 92 73 / 20 20 20 20 20