Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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