Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 310912
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT A NICE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT AND
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL TO MORE OF A LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY
AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. RAISED POPS
BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE BET AT THIS
POINT. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS
THE GULF COAST. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A MORE PROLONGED EVENT ENDING UP WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY EVENING. LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AS
THEY ARE VERY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER. LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY
FRIGID AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM STAYS NORTH FOR NOW.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  34  56  38  40 /   0   0 100  90  10
ANNISTON    56  37  57  40  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  39  58  37  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  41  59  38  44 /   0  10 100  90   0
CALERA      57  40  58  39  43 /   0   0 100  90  10
AUBURN      56  41  59  42  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
MONTGOMERY  59  39  62  44  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
TROY        59  37  63  44  49 /   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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