Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 032003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.  FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE AND IS NOT
DISTINGUISHABLE IN SATELLITE OR RADAR IMAGERY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BECOME NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIR COLUMN BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB BECOMING SATURATED BY 03Z AS
LIFT INCREASES ALONG DEEPENING WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T SEE ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTH. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSTORMS...AND
WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -20 C ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COOL FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER
CITY LINE. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THRU 23Z...AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...CIGS WERE RUNNING ARND
3500 FEET AGL...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SCT-BKN
CONDS THRU 03Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z DUE TO
MOIST CONDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND LIFT ALONG COOL FRONT. BEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...INCLUDING KMGM AND
KTOI. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z
WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6
HOUR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  73  46  66  44 /  10  30  30  10   0
ANNISTON    52  73  49  66  45 /  10  20  30  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  73  50  68  47 /  10  20  30   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  75  50  71  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CALERA      54  73  51  69  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
AUBURN      56  73  52  67  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  76  54  72  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
TROY        56  76  53  71  48 /  20   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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