Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING. SYNOPTICALLY THERE ISN`T MUCH
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ARW AND NMM ARE PRECIPITATION FREE.
THE ECMWF, INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS WETTER AS IT HAS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
LIFT. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS
ADJUST AS NEEDED. IF THERE IS CONVECTION, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY AS SOME COOLER AREAS WILL RESULT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AND WILL BE AROUND 90F. FOR THE REST, STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AS THE GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN AS A FEW SYNOPTIC WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MILD LOWS...
SUMMER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION
OF WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS, SO WE WILL
NOT BE FORECASTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT GCK AND DDC AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  68  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  86  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  78  66  86  64 /  80  40  10  10
LBL  81  68  85  65 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  94  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
P28  85  71  84  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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