Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1118 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

WV imagery indicates a strong closed off upper level low moving
eastward across western Kansas. Near the surface, a strengthening
area of low pressure is lifting northeast across eastern Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

All the focus was on this period. Currently watching a 500-hPa low
that is located across southeast Colorado. 12Z models including the
NMMB/ARW and NAM have shifted the track of this low a bit south and
east. The main implications from this is the potential for higher snowfall
amounts located across the northern zones. Plumes are also confirming
this shift south. As a result, have increased snow amounts. This is
particularly true for Trego and Ellis counties, where 3-6" of snow
is now possible. Have an increasing concern that with the strong north
winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph, local whiteout conditions could
be possible along the I70 corridor. As a result, felt it was prudent
to go with a strongly worded winter storm warning between the certain
blizzard conditions across northwest Kansas to lower amounts of snow,
but still significant travel impacts to the east. Areas of blowing
and drifting snow with reduced visibility are the main concerns with
this storm. Snow with this event should be fairly fluffy, as mid to
low level temps are fairly cold. The deformation band is still expected
on the north and northwest side of the 700-hPa low, where frontogenesis
is maximized. The worst of the storm event will be later tonight across
west central Kansas spreading east by morning across central Kansas.
For locations south of Highway 96, lower snow amounts of 0-2" have
been updated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The storm will be tapering off by noon tomorrow. Most of the guidance
is warm across the northern zones. Went with cooler guidance, where
the heavier snowfall is expected. These values could end up too warm
if the snow event evolves as anticipated. Beyond this, high pressure
will build in Tuesday with much more tranquil conditions and less wind.
A significant warm up is expected Thursday with a downslope southwest
wind pattern. The EC shows a large amplitude trof swinging out across
the Northern Plains Friday. Colder air can be expected with this. The
overall progressive nature of this second system, along with the northern
extent of the trof does not bode well with getting significant precip
across southwest Kansas. Most of the frontal precipitation could easily
be east of the forecast area. For the weekend, a dry N to NW upper
air pattern is expected with seasonal surface temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A strong winter storm will move eastward across the Western High
Plains into the Central Plains overnight. Snow and blowing snow
conditions are likely in the vicinity of KHYS generally after 03Z
resulting in IFR cigs/vsbys through mid to late morning. Although
to a lesser degree, KGCK and KDDC will be effected with MVFR cigs
and possible MVFR vsbys due to snow and blowing snow conditions.
VFR conditions will return to all TAF sites by early to mid
afternoon Monday. A strengthening surface low will move east-
northeast out of eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes Region
through this afternoon. As a result, strong northwest winds 30 to
40kt will persist across western Kansas overnight with gusts
upward of 50kt toward daybreak. The winds will then gradually
subside through late Monday afternoon as the surface low moves
out of eastern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  42  22  48 /  40  30   0   0
GCK  26  40  20  46 /  90  20   0   0
EHA  24  47  21  48 /  50   0   0   0
LBL  28  45  20  49 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  27  35  20  43 /  90  90   0   0
P28  31  43  24  51 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for
KSZ043>046-061>066.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson



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