Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240514
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Strong north winds continue across SW KS early this afternoon,
after the latest dry cold frontal passage this morning. Gusts near
40 mph will continue for a few more hours, before gradually
subsiding late this afternoon. Scattered cirrus will also clear
this afternoon as subsidence arrives behind departing shortwave.
With dewpoints falling back into the 20s, and relative humidity
falling to the 20-25% range, an elevated risk of wildfire spread
will continue through sunset, particularly across the NE zones
near Hays.

Tonight...clear and seasonably chilly. NW winds will diminish
some with the loss of diurnal mixing at sunset. Still, the surface
pressure gradient will remain fairly tight as strong 1040 mb
surface high only builds into Wyoming. As such, NW winds will
remain elevated and modestly gusty overnight, still up to 20 mph
at times. Despite the clear sky and dry air, winds are expected to
keep temperatures from falling too far Tuesday morning, with lows
ranging from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east.

Tuesday...Sunny and windy. Pressure gradients will remain tight
through Tuesday morning, so expect N/NW winds to pick up rapidly
just after sunrise once mixing commences. Gusts again near 35 mph
for a few hours. Winds will weaken rapidly by late afternoon, per
NAM`s forecast of a 1027 mb surface high pressure ridge arriving
in the western zones by 7 pm. Very dry atmosphere expected
Tuesday, with afternoon dewpoints falling into the teens. Should
be difficult to find a cloud tomorrow. Models also show continued
cool advection, with 850 mb temperature trends of about -2C versus
Monday. As such, expecting most locations to only achieve lower
60s Tuesday afternoon (about 5 degrees below late October
normals).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

All dry for all of SW KS through the entire long term. The only
possible exception to this is perhaps a passing sprinkle or flurry
across the western zones Thursday night. 12z ECMWF tracks this
shortwave well to the west, near the Four Corners, which keeps any
measurable snow near the Colorado Front Range. Kept the grids dry
with all pops < 15%.

So, the long term forecast becomes an exercise in temperature
fluctuations and dry cold frontal passages.

Wednesday...Much warmer. As 850 mb temperatures crank up to near
20C, afternoon temperatures will respond into the upper 70s to
near 80. A decent SWly downslope wind component is forecast, so
these temperatures may not be warm enough, especially given the
dry boundary layer and dry ground.

Thursday...Windy and colder. Intense shortwave trough dives into
the northern plains, with a secondary weaker shortwave trailing
back through the Four Corners. Associated strong cold front will
blow through during daylight Thursday with very strong north
winds. Model blends were again woefully underdone with these
winds, and collaborated with surrounding offices to increase them.
Gusts of 40-45 mph are expected.

A brief period of post-frontal clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or
flurry Thursday night. No impacts and nothing measurable.
Despite the clouds and diminishing north winds, it appears most
locales will fall into the killing freeze range (upper 20s) Friday
morning, based solely on cold air advection.

Friday...Cold. Despite abundant sunshine, north winds and cold air
advection will hold most locations in the 40s most of the day.

Areas that don`t see a killing freeze Friday morning will
certainly see one Saturday morning. 12z ECMWF supports this
thinking, with a strong Canadian high across western Nebraska and
Kansas at sunrise Saturday. Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s
for several hours are expected to end the growing season Saturday
morning.

This weekend...Continued dry with moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Winds tonight will continue at 10 to 15 knots as a surface ridge
axis slides south across eastern Colorado/extreme western Kansas.
45 knots winds evident in the RAP and NAM model soundings at Dodge
City and Hays overnight near the 2000ft AGL level so will be
inserting a low level wind shear for these TAF sites between 06z
and 12z Tuesday. The northwest winds at the surface will be on
the increase Tuesday morning as the stronger winds located in the
900mb to 850mb level mixes down to the surface by late morning.
Sustained winds in the 20 to near 30 mph range will be likely this
afternoon. These gusty winds will then fall back to around 10
knots after sunset. VFR conditions can be expected today and
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Strong north winds will continue this afternoon, with gusts in the
30-35 mph range. Combined with min RH values in the 20-25% range,
an elevated risk of wildfire spread will continue through sunset.
More of the same on Tuesday, with strong north winds in the
morning and very dry air in the afternoon (dewpoints in the
teens). With min RH of 18-22% Tuesday afternoon, any outdoor
burning is discouraged. Red flag criteria is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  62  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  61  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  61  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  61  34  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  41  60  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
P28  42  63  38  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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