Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291033
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Precip chances pick up again late this afternoon into tonight as
an upper level shortwave trough dips southeast into the Central
Rockies, in turn ejecting a series of H5 vort maxima out across
the Western High Plains downstream of the trough axis. Meanwhile,
an attendant frontal boundary is projected to push through western
Kansas later today while moisture continues to pool ahead of it
with surface dewpoints remaining well up into the 60s(F). Substantial
instability (MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 to 3000 J/kg) and
steep low/mid level lapse rates under +70kt westeries aloft will
set the stage for potential thunderstorm development in an axis of
increased convergence associated with the boundary late in the
period. Based on the expected migration of a surface low into the
panhandles...favorable shear profiles and the high level of
instability will increase severe potential north and east of the
low, particularly across portions of central Kansas where
conditions will most primed.

High temperatures will once again push well up into the 90s(F) this
afternoon with little change to the air mass across the high plains.
Look for lows down into the 60s(F) Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

As a westerly flow aloft prevails across the high plains Friday, the
focus for thunderstorm development shifts southward as the front
moving through later today pushes further south and east into
Oklahoma and north Texas. However, an upper level shortwave kicking
out of the Colorado Rockies may trigger late afternoon thunderstorms
within a developing easterly upslope flow across eastern Colorado.
Cannot rule out the potential any developing storms drifting into
extreme southwest Kansas toward Friday evening. A somewhat active
pattern will keep a general mention of thunderstorms in the forecast
nearly each day through the early part of next week despite a
weakening flow aloft as ridging builds across the Intermountain
West.

A break in the much warmer temperatures can be expected Friday as
cooler air filters southward into western Kansas in wake of the
frontal passage the day prior. Should see highs mainly in the 80s(F)
Friday afternoon as a result with a warming trend re-establishing
over the weekend as low level southerlies redevelop across the
high plains helping to draw warmer air back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail today with skies becoming partly
cloudy. Winds will start out from a southerly direction then shift
to a northerly direction behind a cold front progged to move
through the area this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  65  83  60 /  10  20  10  20
GCK  95  63  82  58 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  98  62  82  59 /  10  20  10  30
LBL 100  65  84  60 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  92  63  81  59 /  30  30  10  10
P28  98  69  86  63 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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