Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211147
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
447 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY IS LOOKING NICE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WE WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST.
THIS WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH A PRETTY
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN THE SACRAMENT
MOUNTAINS TO POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. I`M NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO (IF ANY) OF SNOW ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITION FROM A
NORTHERLY FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN ANOTHER
WARMING TREND THOUGH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
AT OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO GIVE US BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF THE WEST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
AGAIN PUT US UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250
OFF AND ON TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 26008KT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HELP GIVE US SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO AREA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE
IN THE 30`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 40`S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY MID WEEK WE WILL SEE MIN RH`S IN THE
20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  39  65  38  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           58  36  62  36  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  36  63  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  35  60  33  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  32  46  20  32 /   0   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  37  62  35  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             54  35  58  31  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  34  64  33  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  34  61  30  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  41  65  40  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               60  34  65  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            63  37  67  39  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  39  59  36  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  61  35  66  36  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            59  36  64  35  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  39  63  38  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  29  63  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  34  65  34  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  38  64  38  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               58  36  61  35  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 50  37  55  26  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               48  31  53  24  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                49  33  53  26  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 52  33  56  29  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  37  61  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  32  64  30  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            53  31  57  29  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  34  60  32  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   58  31  62  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  27  59  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 55  36  60  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  60  36  64  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 59  32  63  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  32  66  32  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              60  35  63  33  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15




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