Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New
Mexico and west Texas through early next week and this will
result in showers and thunderstorms developing over much of the
region each day. Heavy rains will be especially possible on
Wednesday when deeper moisture moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad area of low pressure covered the central and southern
Rockies and Great Basin region at the surface this afternoon
while to the east high pressure was over the plains states.
Resultant circulation includes a deep east to southeast low level
flow with import of gulf of Mexico moisture pushing surface
dewpoints above 50 F and precipitable water around 1.3 inches.
Early afternoon mesoanalyses shows 500 to 1000 J/kg mucapes with
little inhibition so expect another round of afternoon and evening
convection. Large area of high pressure aloft does cover the
region with high pressure center aloft located over Nevada and
secondary center near eastern Arizona border. This precludes any
dynamic forcing mechanisms moving into cwa. However surface
heating and upslope flow should initiate storms over the higher
terrain early this afternoon with further surface warming and
possible outflow boundaries inducing storms lower elevations in
the later afternoon and evening. The abundant moisture suggests a
threat of heavy rains with several storms while dcapes above 1000
j/kg indicates a threat of stronger downdrafts.

Model data showing a similar surface and upper air pattern on
Wednesday with deeper moisture inflow as trajectories indicate a
surface to 700 mb transport of Gulf of Mexico water vapor. Thus
expect high surface dewpoints around 55 to 60 F which will support
above normal precipitable water amounts from 1.4 to 1.6 inches.
Combination of heat and moisture will cause air mass to again
destabilize by afternoon with expected mucapes around 600 to 1200
j/kg. Thus expect more deep convection on Wednesday with main
threat being heavy rains due to the deep and abundant moisture
plus a wind profile favorable for back building storms.

For extended periods larger scale pattern aloft will continue to
be dominated by broad upper ridge extending across the southern
Rockies which is usually unfavorable for regional convection.
However at low levels large thermal low will remain across the
great basin and the southwest which will sustain inflow of
moisture from the south and southeast. Precipitable water should
therefore remain above an inch and surface dewpoints above 50
most areas and most of the Thursday through Tuesday period which
in turn supports a weak to moderately unstable air mass. So the
threat of thunderstorms with at least brief heavy rains will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT mainly mtn TSRAGS//VIS 1-3SM/CIGS 050-080
through 03Z.  Activity moves to the lowlands with SCT
TSRAGS/VIS 1-3SM or less/CIGS 090-110 THROUGH 06Z.
Activity will concentrate mainly west of the Rio Grande.  Winds
through 04Z 070-110/10-35kts Gnly Alga and E of the Rio Grande from
storm outflows. Winds elsewhere 030-070/5-10kt thru pd and E of Rio
Grande aft 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase today and
Wednesday...as circulation around high pressure aloft centered over
the four corners delivers additional moisture our way from the
northeast. Wind gusts to 50 mph or more...frequent cloud to ground
lightning and locally heavy rainfall with rapid runoff will continue
as the main threats.  A downturn in especially night time storm
activity will follow starting Thursday and especially Friday...as
relatively drier continental air follows.  Recycled moisture under
the high will still allow scattered afternoon convection...but
storms will be shorter lived and will not continue as long into the
evening hours.  This will result in more high based type storms and
elevate the dry lightning threat.  During this time a weak upper
level wave will develop over southern Texas. This feature will move
west and strengthen over northwest Mexico early in the weekend.
Circulation around the high will help draw some of the moisture
associated with the wave, back northwest over NM and AZ. This will
mean an uptick in storm activity possibly through early next week. We
should see heavy rain and rapid runoff as more the main impact
during that time as a consequence.

Min RH will climb roughly 5-10 percent Wednesday...falling roughly 5-
8 percent Thursday.  Min RH will climb back at least a few percent
by Saturday...and roughly 10-15 percent Sunday all areas. Vent rates
will be poor to good...as proximity of the high center aloft
maintains generally light winds aloft over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  94  72  96 /  30  40  40  20
Sierra Blanca           69  89  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Las Cruces              70  92  68  95 /  30  40  30  20
Alamogordo              70  91  68  96 /  30  60  30  20
Cloudcroft              53  68  52  74 /  50  70  50  40
Truth or Consequences   71  92  69  96 /  40  40  30  20
Silver City             63  88  63  91 /  40  60  30  30
Deming                  70  94  68  97 /  30  50  30  20
Lordsburg               68  94  67  97 /  30  50  30  20
West El Paso Metro      74  93  71  95 /  30  40  40  20
Dell City               68  91  67  94 /  40  40  40  20
Fort Hancock            73  93  71  95 /  30  40  30  20
Loma Linda              68  87  66  89 /  30  40  40  20
Fabens                  71  93  70  96 /  30  40  40  20
Santa Teresa            72  93  70  95 /  30  40  40  20
White Sands HQ          72  90  70  93 /  30  40  40  20
Jornada Range           67  92  65  96 /  30  40  30  20
Hatch                   70  94  68  97 /  30  40  30  20
Columbus                72  94  70  97 /  30  40  40  20
Orogrande               71  90  69  94 /  30  50  30  20
Mayhill                 57  75  54  80 /  50  70  40  40
Mescalero               56  78  54  83 /  40  70  40  30
Timberon                54  76  52  80 /  50  70  50  40
Winston                 58  85  57  89 /  50  60  30  30
Hillsboro               65  90  64  95 /  50  60  30  20
Spaceport               68  90  66  95 /  40  40  30  20
Lake Roberts            55  87  54  92 /  50  70  30  40
Hurley                  64  88  63  92 /  40  60  30  20
Cliff                   61  93  60  96 /  30  60  30  30
Mule Creek              59  90  57  94 /  30  60  30  30
Faywood                 64  90  62  93 /  40  60  30  20
Animas                  69  95  67  97 /  30  50  40  30
Hachita                 70  94  67  97 /  30  50  40  20
Antelope Wells          68  92  66  94 /  30  40  40  30
Cloverdale              63  87  62  90 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/22 Tripoli


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