Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032058
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
258 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH DRY AND WARM AIR OVER THE
BORDERLAND. THURSDAY WILL HOT AGAIN AND GENERALLY DRY...BUT BRING
A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS.
FRIDAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP IN FROM BOTH THE WEST
AND THE EAST ADDING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE SATURDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPS AND
PUMPS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. COOLER AND CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PERSIST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN WE
TREND TOWARD A COOLER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW...WE
CONTINUE THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS S NM AND FAR
W TX AS WE SIT BETWEEN WEST COAST TROUGHING AND S PLAINS RIDGING.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION HOT AND DRY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE FROM THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FRIDAY CAN BE CONSIDERED THE TRANSITION DAY. HERE WE SEE THE
BEGINNING OF MID-LEVEL SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE INGEST TO OUR WEST
AND LOW- LEVEL GULF- MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
PULL IN SOME SE FLOW FROM TX AND INCREASE DEWPOINTS OVER EAST
ZONES. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUE WARM AND DRY FOR THE
BOOTHEEL...SW DESERTS...SIERRA AND DONA ANA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTN/EVE STORMS EL PASO...HUDSPETH... AND OTERO COUNTIES TO
THE EAST...AND GRANT COUNTY WEST.

SATURDAY BEGINS THE BETTER WAVE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST WE WILL
SEE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS FLOW SHOULD
HAVE VERY CONCENTRATED TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF OF HURRICANE BLANCA
WITHIN. OUR PW`S WILL INCREASE FROM .25" TODAY TO .65" THU TO .95"
FRI TO 1.15" SAT TO 1.40" SUN. THUS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN OUR
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPS THE ATMOSPHERE WON`T BE AS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
BUT WEAK IMPULSES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY SATURDAY THOUGH
TUESDAY.

BLANCA IS PROGED TO WORK NORTH UP THE BAJA AND OPEN UP INTO SE AZ.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERS TO OUR S. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CRUCIAL TO OUR FORECAST AND THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN WE DO/DON`T GET. IF THE RIDGE STAYS E OR FAR SOUTH WE WILL
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES...IF IT BUILDS TOO CLOSE THE RAIN WILL
SHIFT WEST. CURRENT MODELS SHOW OUR BEST MOISTURE AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS UP MOIST INTO
TUE/WED. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND BEGINS TO DRY OUT
THE AREA A BIT MONDAY. THE TAKEAWAY IS THIS IS A COMPLICATED AND
RELATIVELY UNPRECEDENTED OCCURRENCE FOR EARLY JUNE. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`LL GET THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY...BUT NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
TRANSLATE INTO RAINFALL AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z.
DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING... WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS SNEAKING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
HOT AND DRY. HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER TEENS ABOVE 7500 FEET. STEEP LAPSE RATES...DRY AIR ALOFT
AND MODERATE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL YIELD HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 5 TO
6. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...CAUTION IS
URGED IN AREAS OF DRY/FLASHY FUELS. A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL WHERE THERE ARE
ON-GOING FIRES.

SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING CANNOT BE OUT RULED
OVER THE GILA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC MAY COME IN TO PLAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

25-HARDIMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  99  71  97  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           66  97  65  94  64 /   0   0   0  30  30
LAS CRUCES              63  96  66  94  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              64  97  65  93  64 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              53  75  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  94  64  91  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
SILVER CITY             56  86  57  85  59 /   0   0  10  30  30
DEMING                  59  96  62  95  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               60  95  60  94  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  98  71  96  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
DELL CITY               66  98  65  96  62 /   0   0   0  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            70 101  69  98  69 /   0   0   0  30  30
LOMA LINDA              66  93  66  90  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
FABENS                  68 100  68  97  68 /   0   0   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            67  97  67  96  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  96  69  94  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           61  96  63  93  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
HATCH                   62  97  65  95  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
COLUMBUS                65  96  67  94  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
OROGRANDE               67  96  69  94  69 /   0   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 58  84  55  79  52 /   0   0   0  40  40
MESCALERO               56  85  54  80  52 /   0   0   0  40  40
TIMBERON                56  83  54  80  51 /   0   0   0  30  30
WINSTON                 54  86  55  82  57 /   0   0   0  30  30
HILLSBORO               58  94  59  91  60 /   0   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               59  95  62  94  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            52  86  54  84  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
HURLEY                  55  89  57  88  58 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLIFF                   55  93  57  92  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
MULE CREEK              47  90  49  89  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
FAYWOOD                 58  90  60  88  61 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  60  96  59  95  61 /   0   0   0  20  20
HACHITA                 59  97  59  96  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          59  97  59  95  60 /   0   0   0  20  20
CLOVERDALE              58  91  57  91  60 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25




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