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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282031
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER HEADLINES READ AS SUCH. UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND
PULLS MOISTURE OUT WITH IT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND
PUSHES DRY AIR OVER THE BORDERLAND. THE STORY IS THIS. THE REGION
WILL BEGIN A DRY AND WARM PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FEW CLOUDS AND NEARLY ZERO CHANCE
OF ANY RAIN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AND REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN AROUND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK TO REINTRODUCE THE REGION TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH HAS NOW TRACKED EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND CARRIED THE PLUME WITH IT INTO W
CENTRAL TX. BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WE HAVE A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THE FLOW OFF THIS FEATURE
PLACES A DEEP AND DRY NW FLOW OVER S NM AND FAR W TX. THIS MEANS A
SUBSTANTIAL LOSS IN PW AND DEWPOINT NUMBERS WITH ONLY A THIN
SLIVER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE CWFA. THE RESULT IS
A TOTAL LACK OF STORM POTENTIAL WITH ONLY A SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER
CU FIELD EACH AFTERNOON. THE ONLY NEAR-TERM DISCLAIMER IS FOR
TONIGHT: THE FAR E AND SE ZONES OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO STILL HARBOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THEY ARE IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING MOISTURE.

TOMORROW THE ENTIRE REGION IS MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY MENTION OF
SHOWER OR STORM POTENTIAL...AND THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND DEEP W TO NW FLOW KEEPING THE MONSOON
MOISTURE TO OUR E AND S. JUST SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE SUN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSE MEANING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT.

BY MID WEEK THE WEST COAST HIGH WILL HAVE SLIPPED SW WELL OUT INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE GULF HIGH REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS N
MEXICO AND TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP NORTH OUT OF MEXICO INTO
FAR WEST TEXAS AND SW NEW MEXICO. THUS BY MID WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS. AREA MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. FOR NOW NO
POPS IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT WILL WATCH FOR THAT NEED ON SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z - 30/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT120 MAINLY EAST OF KELP. BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST.

04-LUNDEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A FEW BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTANT OF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP TO
5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES OF UPPER TEEN PERCENTAGES IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE BACK UP TO 50
PERCENTILE RANGE. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND UNDER 10 MPH
MOST DAYS. A PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH MAY INCREASE WINDS
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

04-LUNDEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  94  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  93  68  92  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  94  66  96  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  93  63  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              51  72  53  71  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  92  66  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  87  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  94  66  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  94  66  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  93  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  95  68  97  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            72  95  74  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  89  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  70  98  72  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  95  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  94  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  92  65  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  95  67  96  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  92  68  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  94  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  81  59  80  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               56  84  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                57  81  59  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  79  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  87  64  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  90  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  85  60  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  62  90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   60  90  61  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              55  87  56  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  66  94  67  92  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  94  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  94  63  92  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              62  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/04





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