Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242033
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
233 PM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions will be common across the region for most of the
week. An upper disturbance will help generate another round of
strong winds Tuesday along with areas of blowing dust. It will be
slightly cooler Wednesday before another pair of disturbances
bring wind back to the region Thursday and Friday. By friday night
and Saturday some rain and even high mountain snow will become
possible as a cold front sweeps through and drops temps for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It seems as if today`s wind is just a preview of what we can
expect for the balance of the week. Fast zonal flow aloft has
resulted in cyclogenesis this afternoon over southeastern Colorado
and a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across the
Borderland. This combined with decent mixing to between 600mb and
650mb has been responsible for this first round of wind and dust.

More of the same if expected Tuesday, but with greater wind speeds
and likely more in the way of blowing dust. An approaching
disturbance will carve out a trough over the region while another
round of cyclogenesis shapes up over the west Texas panhandle.
This low is progged to be deeper, thus resulting in a tighter
gradient than today. At the same time we will again mix up close
to 600mb where wind speeds are likely to be at or above 50 knots.
With surface winds approaching 35 knots and gusts to 50 knots or
more, we have decided to go with a High Wind Warning for many
zones during the afternoon hours Tuesday.

Wednesday looks to be a less windy day with a loosening of the
surface gradient. While we will be a few degrees cooler, we will
still manage to mix a bit in the afternoon. So expect to see some
afternoon breeziness, but not the strong winds of today and
tomorrow.

Meanwhile we do it all again Thursday and Friday with enhanced
upper flow inducing additional lee cyclogenesis and deep mixing
helping to bring back rather strong winds. Friday looks to be the
windiest day of these two as another long wave trough digs down
across the region. This system looks to be a bit colder and could
even bring precipitation to the area. The best window for precip
will be Friday night and Saturday as the cold core of the trough
passes by. Some higher elevation snow is not out of the question,
but amounts will likely not be that great. It will also be much
cooler areawide over the weekend in the wake of this system with
readings actually dropping back to below normal for a day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT150-200
SCT-BKN200-250 through period with strong winds expected. West to
southwest winds of 20-25G35KTS will slowly decrease to 10-15KTS by
06Z all areas except eastern mtn slopes where 15-25G35KTS will
remain common.  Winds will increase again after 15Z to 25-35G50KTS
with areas of BLO 1SM BLDU southern and eastern area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT AREA MOUNTAINS...

West to northwest flow will persist across the region for the
upcoming week.  A series of disturbances will help to keep winds
strong each afternoon through Saturday with just a small break
Wednesday. Red Flag Warning now in effect Tuesday for all lowland
locations as temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s and relative
humidities fall into the lower teens and upper single digits.  Winds
take a break Wednesday but will still be breezy.  Strong winds
return Thursday and Friday with a cold front pushing in for the
weekend which will drop temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  84  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           62  86  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              57  80  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              60  82  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  55  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   58  77  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  55  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               53  76  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      66  80  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               57  87  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            63  90  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              61  77  54  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  64  86  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            61  82  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          64  79  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           54  79  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   54  82  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                62  82  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               63  82  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 50  68  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               48  66  37  61 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                45  65  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 44  68  36  69 /   0  10   0   0
Hillsboro               50  75  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               53  80  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            37  69  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  48  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   46  75  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              48  67  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  73  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  54  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 54  81  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          53  79  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  74  47  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ405>407-
     409>417.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-408-411-
     413>416.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ402>404-408.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418>420-
     422.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ421-423-424.

&&

$$

27-Laney/26-Grzywacz


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