Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 061004
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
404 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AREAS EAST OF EL PASO MAY ALSO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MUCH COOLER. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ACTIVE WINDY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE AND STRENGTHENS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL BE
PRESENT THAT WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF EL PASO WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO THE EAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WHICH MAY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30
MPH OR HIGHER. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR WEST OF LAS CRUCES INTO ARIZONA AS WELL AS OTHER
MAJOR DESERT ROADWAYS WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.

ALSO THERE IS MOISTURE LURKING IN THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THAT MAY BE ABLE TO FUEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE 90 PLUS
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WINDS SPEEDS WILL
BE LOWER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL IN THE WINDY CATEGORY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN LESS BLOWING DUST.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE THE LOCAL AREA. A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS STAYING BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR MANY LOWLAND AREAS.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY WITH A
WEAKER WEST FLOW ALOFT FILLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS WITH GRADUALLY RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK THAT COULD
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT THE OUTCOME IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...06/12-07/12Z...
A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR 16Z THROUGH 01Z. KDMN AND KLRU
MAY SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF
KELP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY
AND ENHANCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF LAS CRUCES THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALL
AREAS WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AREAS EXTENDING FROM EL PASO WESTWARD INTO
ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET THIS
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL
KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP THE AREA OUT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL STILL CONSTITUTE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK. HIGHER
MOUNTAINS IN THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOWER WIND SPEEDS AREA EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  60  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           92  58  86  52 /  10  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              89  52  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              90  54  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              68  39  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   86  51  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             80  42  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  87  48  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               84  43  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               93  53  86  48 /  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  59  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              90  57  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  95  59  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            91  56  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           89  50  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   90  50  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                90  51  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               91  57  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 79  46  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
MESCALERO               78  44  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                77  43  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 79  38  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               84  47  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               87  50  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            79  35  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  81  41  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   82  37  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              81  34  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 83  43  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  84  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 86  45  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  46  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              79  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ110>112.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ402>411.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN



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