Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 071112
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
412 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE MONDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S. IT WILL
BE BREEZY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AFTER A 6 DAY STRETCH BELOW
NORMAL. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY WILL COOL THINGS OFF A LITTLE
BUT HARDLY BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY EAST WINDS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. THEN THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME AS THE
WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND THE DEEP MIDWESTERN TROUGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON TUESDAY.

AFTER MONDAY WE WILL ENJOY A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWLAND TEMPS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
INCREASE OUR WINDS SOMEWHAT NEXT SUNDAY. JUST BEYOND THAT THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/12Z-08/12Z... P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE BLO 10KTS UNTIL 08/03Z...THEN NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER THE
LOWLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES MONDAY
WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS COULD REACH 20 MPH DUE TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS...VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  31  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  25  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              62  26  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  27  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  19  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  28  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  25  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  62  26  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  25  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  32  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               64  23  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            64  28  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  28  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  63  28  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  27  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  30  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           62  23  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   62  26  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                62  27  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  29  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  23  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               54  21  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                53  24  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 57  24  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               61  25  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               61  25  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            59  19  60  21 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  59  24  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   63  21  64  22 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              62  19  64  21 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  25  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  63  26  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 62  25  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  25  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              62  28  60  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT


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