Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271045
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONTS TO PRODUCE COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE CWA BUT THIS FEATURE IS ONLY
PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO
SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INDICATING RAIN THREAT IS ABOUT OVER. BY THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN WARMER DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LEE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MORE COMPLEX AND ACTIVE SCENARIO BEGINS ON THURSDAY. FIRST A
SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE CWA
WITH EAST WINDS AND ATTENDANT COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LOWERING THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES. CONCURRENTLY A VERY SLOW MOVING AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WITH BACKING FLOW AND
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF IT ADVECTING WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. A CLOSED LOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES EASTWARD DRIFT.

SLOW APPROACH OF TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT BEING LIFTED OVER COOLER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. IN ADDITION DYNAMIC UPWARD FORCING WILL INCREASE AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THIS SCENARIO WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT DESPITE
THIS TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN LOWLANDS WITH SNOW
MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. AIR MASS WILL BE VERY MOIST FOR JANUARY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND RANGING FROM AROUND
.75 TO ALMOST AN INCH BY NOON FRIDAY. THUS A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE OVER AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO COOL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

EXPECT TROUGH TO CONTINUE SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR
WHICH WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 5000 FEET MOST AREAS WITH
EVEN PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES OVER THE LOWLANDS AT NIGHT.
HOWEVER EXPECT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO GRADUALLY FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS LATER PERIODS RESULTING IN DIMINISHED RAIN AND SNOW
COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CONTINUED COOL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS AT OR BELOW 10
KT. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL
THRU 16Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WET TEXAS TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 50 TO 60 PERCENT
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WINS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTS TO PRODUCE COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HEAVY SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA WILDERNESS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  41  71  43  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  42  71  42  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              64  37  69  41  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              64  36  68  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              49  28  51  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  39  66  40  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             65  36  67  39  58 /   0   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  65  35  70  39  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               66  36  69  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  44  71  45  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               68  35  71  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  43  74  43  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  42  66  44  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  40  72  41  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            66  39  70  41  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  40  70  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           63  30  67  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  34  71  39  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                64  38  70  42  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               65  38  69  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 62  37  64  38  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               55  31  57  33  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                58  37  60  38  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 60  38  62  37  53 /   0   0   0   0  20
HILLSBORO               62  40  65  41  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               65  36  68  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            61  34  64  35  58 /   0   0   0   0  20
HURLEY                  63  36  66  38  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   67  33  69  36  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
MULE CREEK              63  29  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0  20
FAYWOOD                 63  39  66  41  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  69  34  71  39  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
HACHITA                 68  33  71  38  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  33  71  39  64 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOVERDALE              67  36  70  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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