Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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343
FXUS63 KICT 010430
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Surface low pressure was centered over Kingman county as of 19z.
Some clearing on the visible imagery was noted earlier today, but
the steep lapse rates/instability caused the clearing to fill in
with showers.

Temperatures have risen into the 40s across the CWA. This and the
lowest level of the boundary layer being above freezing, has
for the most part ended the snow fall in central Kansas. There may
be some before the precipitation ends tonight, but accumulations
of any significance are not expected.

Wind behind the system will continue, but will gradually decrease
as the system pulls away. Right now, we remain around wind
advisory criteria. Will let it expire at 7 pm as planned.

Once this system moves out tonight, there will be a drying out
period until the next system moves into the region Tuesday night.

For tonight, confidence is high that precipitation will affect the
region, but not much in the way of significant rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Remarkable agreement on the next system moving into the region
Tuesday evening by the latest NWP. GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show a front
moving north as a disturbance moves out of the west. Cyclogenesis
over the southern Plains produces a significant amount of moisture
transport Tuesday night. This front serves as the focus for
convection overnight.

Fairly high confidence in rainfall with this system. The location
should be over southern and southeast Kansas. Precipitation
amounts are trending higher with the last few runs, with rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches in southern and southeast Kansas likely. The
system is following a trend of being more dynamic.

Severe weather remains a threat as well. Cloud bearing shear does
favor organized convection and given the orthogonal nature of the
moisture transport to the warm front, believe the threat will be
confined to large hail.

The question remains on whether there will be enough forcing along
the boundary from the moisture transport to support severe storms.
Uncertainty here is pretty moderate, though statistically, there
will probably a few storms that border on severe.

This system will exit Wednesday, with no precipitation expected
for the remainder of the week and through the following weekend.
The only weather of note will be increasing winds from the south
toward the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Some lingering light precipitation will continue into the
overnight hours, however the the precipitation will taper off
before sunrise as the upper level system move eastward. Low clouds
will clear out from west to east this morning with northwest/westerly
winds remaining strong and gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  67  45  69 /  60   0   0  10
Hutchinson      38  66  43  68 /  60   0   0  10
Newton          37  64  44  67 /  70   0   0  10
ElDorado        38  65  44  68 /  60   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   40  67  45  71 /  40   0   0  10
Russell         35  63  40  65 /  70   0   0  10
Great Bend      36  63  41  66 /  70   0   0  10
Salina          37  65  43  67 /  70   0  10  10
McPherson       37  64  43  67 /  70   0   0  10
Coffeyville     42  67  46  72 /  30   0   0  10
Chanute         41  64  45  70 /  50   0   0  10
Iola            41  63  45  69 /  50  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    41  65  45  71 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...CDJ



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