Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 301145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
SCOOT ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND COULD GENERATE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER KANSAS WITH
PERSIST NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY
BEING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF KANSAS. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MAINLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF KS AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL-IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECTED THESE IFR AND
LIFR LEVELS TO REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 HOURS WITH CENTRAL
KS(KRSL-KSLN) THE SLOWEST TO CLEAR. MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT VFR
LEVELS BY AROUND 18-19Z. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER. MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS COME BACK INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  43  61  44 /  10   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      61  42  59  42 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          63  43  60  43 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        65  44  62  44 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  44  64  44 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         54  40  55  40 /  30  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      56  40  56  41 /  20  10  10  50
SALINA          60  42  57  43 /  20  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       60  42  58  42 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            70  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL


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