Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 070441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN KS AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  EXPECT THIS AREA
OF SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE.  SO
WILL KEEP SHRA AND VCTS IN FOR THE KCNU TAF...AS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA.  JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RAIN
SHIELD...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR CIGS...FOR THE
KICT/KHUT AND KSLN FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.  WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS IN KICT/KHUT.

AFTER THE MVFR CIGS END...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PLAY
OUT...AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN KS.  WILL GO WITH A VCSH FOR NOW...BUT NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 / 100  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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