Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 282316
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
516 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

TNGT: ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT...THOUGH A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS.  STRATUS/STRATOCU CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
TEXAS GULF COAST IS GRADUALLY ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW.  AS NIGHT PROGRESSES...MORE WELL DEFINED
NOCTURNAL JET AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 35-
40KTS...HELPING TO ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  PER AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW...STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS A RESULT.

SAT: THE BEGINNING OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND LOOKS WILL BE ON FOR
THE RECORD BOOKS.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGHS AT RSL AND SLN...AND EXPECT THESE SAME CONDITIONS TO EXIST ON
SATURDAY.  OVERALL WIND FIELD SHARPENS A BIT ON SATURDAY...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL.  THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE MIXING
AREAWIDE...SO BOOSTED TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.
SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE THE EXCEPTION...AS MORNING STRATUS MAY
SHORTEN POTENTIAL HEATING PERIOD.


SUN-SUN NIGHT: SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...AS ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.  APPENDAGE OF VORTEX MOVING ACROSS
CANADA WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE MORNING...AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE SHORT...AND TIMING OF
FRONT WILL DICTATE MUCH TEMPERATURES RISE....WITH COLD ADVECTION
COUNTERING INSOLATION.  GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS POOR...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LINGER ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...WHICH COULD BE A SOURCE OF FOR
SOME VERY...VERY...VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY WEAK
ASCENT/DEFORMATION BEING DEPICTED ALONG 290 AND 295 THETA
SURFACES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

MON:  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DIRECT COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWESY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING. SOME STRATUS MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...FURTHER CAPPING WARM-UP POTENTIAL. DID NOT ADJUST GOING
FORECAST TOO MUCH AS ALL SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONSISENT WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

TUE-FRI: MIXED MESSAGE BEING PRESENTED BY ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GEFS MEMBERS
APPEAR EQUALLY SPLIT BETWEEN BROAD SCALE TROUGH AND BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BLENDING THESE TWO SCENARIOS
WHILE EC HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFED RIDGE...EACH DEPICTING
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERALL. REGARDLESS...OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
SEASONABLE...AND DRY. MOISTURE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RETURN
GIVEN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. IF OPERATIONAL GFS PANS OUT...THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT RIDGING ALONG GULF COAST WILL BREAK DOWN SOON
ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE RETURN INTO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE. OVERALL...KEPT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
FOR TEMPS AND LEANED TOWARD DRY SIDE ON PRECIPITATION.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 0.5 KM WILL ALLOW SHALLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT
FROM EASTERN TX AND EASTERN OK UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS...THAT
PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY IFR AT CNU TERMINAL
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST...WITH A HINT OF IFR AT ICT WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS LESS. MIXING DEPTH SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD MIDDAY
ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE. ELSEHWERE...EXPECT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MAINLY SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      33  68  32  44 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          38  67  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  68  39  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  69  40  54 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         34  74  31  38 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      34  74  33  40 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          34  68  32  40 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  68  33  42 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     45  72  47  61 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         43  67  45  56 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            43  67  44  55 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  71  46  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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