Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150154
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
854 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
EVENING IS ELICITING A RAPID FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ACROSS ERN
SDKTA INTO MN. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS THICKENING
UPSTREAM AND RADAR RETURNS ARE ALSO EXPANDING ACROSS THAT AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOULD ENTER THE NRN FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE. THE AREA
ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SATURATE...WITH
THE RAIN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING ON MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO
MADISON LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING LESS RAINFALL.

GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SHARP
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE...THE RAIN WILL SHUT OFF VERY
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...ENDING WEST OF MADISON BY
LATE MORNING...AND IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA BY ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.
RAPID CLEARING SHOULD THEN FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IN SUMMARY...A FAST MOVING AND POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL THAT WILL LAST ABOUT 5-6 HOURS...THEN
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITHIN
A FEW HOURS OF THE RAIN STARTING...THEN CLEARING OUT WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.

THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT KMSN BY 12Z MON REACHING KMKE/KUES/KENW
ABOUT 14Z. LOOK FOR IT TO END AT KMSN BY 18Z...21-22Z AT
KMKE/KUES/KENW. THE MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR DURING THE CORE OF THE
RAINFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS IT APPROACHES. THEN
LOOK FOR NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST BY MID DAY AND INCREASING TO
8 TO 11 KNOTS.

LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. QUIET HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. LEAD
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD TONIGHT...SATURATING MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS FAIRLY ROBUST LATER TONIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

THUS...CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY...THOUGH COULD BE RAISED MORE IN
LATER FORECASTS GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TONIGHT...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON MONDAY. THE HIGHS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TO IL ON TUE AND REMAIN
THERE INTO WED. AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS SE
CANADA ON WED-THU...ITS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS S WI
WED NIGHT. LGT WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUE-WED WITH THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ELY WED NT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE SHALLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MO SUNNY...MILD DAYS AND MO CLEAR...COOL
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH IN CANADA AND MOVE FROM S ONTARIO TO S QUEBEC ON THU-FRI.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND ADJACENT USA WITH A LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SLY
FLOW AND WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON FRI. THERE IS MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF UPPER TROUGHING AND DIGGING TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THUS ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR TSTORMS AT THIS TIME. DO
EXPECT AN EVENTUAL COLD FROPA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH. TEMPS WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CATEGORY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET
ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AFTER 11Z MONDAY...AND AFTER 13Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES...AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY...ENDING
AT THE EASTERN SITES BY 00Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING



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