Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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868
FXUS63 KMKX 141713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...

A WELL DEFINED MODERATE SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS FROM PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN IOWA ALSO
HELPING OUT. A QUICK INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR SO POSSIBLE.

THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THUS...THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
WITH THIS INITIAL BAND. WEAKER UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENDING WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A MODERATE SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE A QUICK FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
BAND...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AND CEILINGS DOWN
TO 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. RATES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT...A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR AT BEST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES
AT TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF SNOW FALLING...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND
1000 FEET OR SO LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING CONTINUES. MAY SEE A FEW 35
KNOT GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...VEERING SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES BUILDING
TO 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NE WILL LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND DEAMPLIFY SOME
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE SRN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 2-3 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI WITH AN INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
HOWEVER...THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 16-17C WILL BRING LES TO ERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCOUNTED FOR A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LES OVER FAR ERN SHEBOYGAN
CO. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TNT WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES THERE. VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DENDRITE
ZONE. WARM ADVECTION ON SLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY FOR TNT.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM SW
TO NE. KMSN SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AROUND 16-17Z WITH THE
SE WI TAF SITES AROUND 19-20Z. CIGS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME TO
1.0-3.0 KFT WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM. VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TNT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED.


MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT
FOR BRISK SSELY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE IN ICE FREE
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE...THE ICE
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE SLY FETCH IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE WAVES TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



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