Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 252013
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
413 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

A low pressure system currently over central Manitoba will shift E
across far northern Ontario tonight and Wed. A SFC trough and cold
front extending from the low will trek across the area tonight and
Wed, with a shortwave running just ahead of the front. The most
attention is on early tonight when elevated instability should
increase from the SW. Models suggest MUCAPE increase somewhere in
the 1,500-2,500 J/kg range over the central and W, and 800-1,500
J/kg over the E, with 20-30kts of shear. Elevated hail storms are
certainly a possibility, mainly over the central and W but can`t
rule out some strong to sever hailers over the E. Still a lot of
uncertainty as it is unknown exactly how much instability will
develop and where storms will develop and track. Best estimate for
timing based on hi-res models is that storms will move in from the W
around or after midnight tonight.

The cold front slows across the area and moves through the S-central
and E tomorrow. The front will bring precip chances that will sag SE
with time late tonight into Wed, possibly reinvigorating some
convection over the S-central and E tomorrow afternoon. Not
completely out of the question for some of that convection to be
strong, but not expected at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Fairly quiet long-term forecast expected as a surface ridge builds
across the area. Near normal temperatures expected.

As a cold front sinks southeast of the area Wednesday evening, the
best chances for showers and thunderstorms will slide out of the
U.P. A deeper shortwave will slide across the area Thursday
afternoon, which will lead to diurnal CU along with a small chance
for isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorms or two. Moisture will
be limited as the wave moves across, so coverage should be isolated
to scattered at best. A surface ridge will build across the area
through much of the rest of the extended keeping conditions mainly
dry trhough the extended. At this point will stick with a consensus
of the models through the extended, bringing little to no chances of
precipitation until Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Attention is on a front and associated convection expected to move
through tonight into Wed. Timing, coverage, and intensity of
precipitation and CIG/VIS is uncertain. In addition, there could be
LLWS tonight, but it looks to be just below wind different
thresholds to include in the TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 409 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Expect stronger wind gusts from the south to southwest of 20-25 kts
into Wednesday morning over eastern sections as a low pressure
trough crosses the region. Strongest winds look to occur late
tonight into Wed morning over far east. Winds rest of this week will
be 15 kts or less with exception of Thu aftn into Thu evening over
east when wind gusts from the NNW could reach over 20 kts for a
while.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...Titus



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