Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220621
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
221 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE LATEST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES TELL THE STORY...WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NW. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EROSION OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...BUT THE TREND CONTINUES. DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH DRY COOL AIR ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
RESULT IN QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS WITH PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
UPPER MI...WITH TEMPS OF 30-36F. PW VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35-45
PERCENT OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING WAA OVER THE FAR W AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO LOW FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG OVER MAINLY S
PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG SHOULD STAY S OF THE
WI BORDER.

850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM AROUND 1C THIS AFTERNOON TO 5-10C BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY SFC-850MB FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE 60S TOMORROW. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH OVER THE MI MS VALLEY EXTENDING A
RIDGE UP THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO AT 12Z MONDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED S
THANKS TO A SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND W HUDSON BAY. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...OUT OF THE
W GUSTING 20-25KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ONLY
ITEM OF CONCERN IS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA TO BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AND SEPARATED OUT
FROM THE REST OF THE FEATURE. MODELS STILL CONSISTENT ON THE BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING NORTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH STATIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION (AROUND A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA) AND ALLOW
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
MOST DAYS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST)...WHICH WILL MARK THE RETURN TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD AND KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS
A DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. AFTER SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AT KCMX...SHOULD GO RAPIDLY TO VFR THIS MORNING.
UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX UNDER A FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND
DIRECTION. GUSTS AT THAT TERMINAL MAY REACH UPWARDS OF AROUND 25KT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KTS WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL HAVE GUSTS OF
25-30KTS AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS OF STANNARD ROCK AND GRANITE ISLAND
INITIALLY. THE LOW OVER SW QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE W MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH
VALLEY MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER
A RIDGE THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF






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