Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 062351
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
651 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH T850 ABOUT 5C WARMER AND ALSO WITH
POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS EFFICIENT.

WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED A BIT
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO DECIDED TO BUMP HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TOMORROW...WITH OVERALL SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FORECASTED AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NICE WX REGIME WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING DOWN THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONCERN FOR TYPE OF PRECIP WITH FROPA. HAVE CONTINUED TO RELY ON
THE NAM TO CAPTURE THE BL CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LIQUID TO
MIX PHASE WITH FROPA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH TEMPS
PERHAPS RISING IN THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. TRIED TO WORK
THE HOURLY TEMPS USING A WETBULB EFFECT GIVEN THE GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK ON. THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW AS THE FRONT
CROSSES ON MONDAY OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. AT
THIS POINT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY
ASIDE FROM A 1 TO 3 INCH COATINGS ABOVE 2 KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE TRUE CAA ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITH THE UPPER TROF. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AIDED BY APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED OVER NE KY/S WV/SW VA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
MONDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OVER SE OH AND N WV
LOWLANDS. DECENT THERMAL PACKING ALOFT WILL ACT TO EFFICIENTLY
BRING DOWN WHAT FLOW THERE IS SO HAVE SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS
OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY
ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY SUBTLE SPOKES OF
ENERGY WITH MINIMAL LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES AN AUTO
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SOME ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE MORE OF THE HALF INCH TO INCH VARIETY WITH 1 TO 3 OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO PASS THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND
MAY JUST END UP STEADY STATE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT FALL IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...MAYBE
A BIT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...WE STILL ENVISION A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL
ADD UP TO A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 4
TO 8 OVER THE MOUNTAINS THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER
END OF THAT RANGE OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF COURSE. WILL KEEP
CURRENT HWO WORDING INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN
ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND
FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT S
ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK/30/MC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JW/MC
AVIATION...TRM


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