Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 260251
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1051 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through most of the region by late Tuesday,
before dissipating Tuesday night. This leave showers and storms
possible until a new system arrives by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 pm update...
Lowered PoPs to slight chance at best overnight, dry across the
far northern tier.

800 PM UPDATE...
Forecast on track.

700 pm update...
Heat advisory cancelled an hour early in coordination with ILN and
PBZ, with thunderstorms cooling parts of the area and heat indices
dropping below 100 elsewhere as of 7 pm.

515 pm update...
Made some adjustments to PoPs including trimming back in southeast
Ohio overnight. The forecast is otherwise on track.

Previous discussion...
Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this
evening. Plenty of instability out ahead of the front and with a
very soupy airmass. Storms will continue to fire along this front
and could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front is
expected to stall over our southern portion of the CWA. Storms are
expected to continue over that area overnight. Some fog may
develop over those areas that receive rain towards daybreak.

The chance of showers will linger throughout the day...especially
near the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary will wash out over of the area...leaving plenty
of moisture. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday...more numerous in the afternoon and evening hours.

Models then showing a feature moving in on Thursday or Friday.
Considerable timing differences between the models with this
feature...so stayed fairly generic with pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean.
Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This
would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture for
Friday and Saturday. A cold front would then push into the area
Sunday. Still questionable if this front would push south of the
area or not for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms were becoming more widely scattered this
evening, but, with a cold front slowly lumbering into the middle
Ohio Valley overnight tonight, they remain possible at anytime,
although coverage is likely to remain sparse enough to preclude
explicit coding of MVFR or worse flight categories.

Rainfall from showers and thunderstorms that did occur makes fog
more likely compared with last night, especially at HTS, CKB and
EKN. Once the fog burns off in the morning, possibly lifting
briefly into an MVFR cloud deck, Tuesday will bring mainly VFR
conditions. However, with the front lumbering through the central
Appalachians, a shower or thunderstorm is still possible but
again, coverage expected to be too sparse to code up explicitly.

Light southwest surface flow overnight into Tuesday will switch
to light west to northwest behind the front Tuesday afternoon.
Flow aloft will remain light west to west-northwest.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect
any TAF site overnight, and any of the southern TAF site HTS, CRW
or BKW on Tuesday. Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary
overnight into Tuesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/26/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon
and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week
depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the
previous afternoon or night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JS


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