Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 292352
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
752 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm southerly flow through the weekend. Cold front Monday. Upper
low with unsettled weather to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM Saturday...

Added slights everywhere for a few more hours with the cooling
top of the boundary layer adding to some late evening
destabilization. Convection that forms should be short lived, as
the mid and upper levels are still not all that favorable for
sustaining vertical cumulus growth with lower moisture amounts.

As of 128 PM Saturday...

Precipitation last night and earlier today most likely moistened the
atmosphere further south than the models are indicating. It also
left lots of boundaries, some of which are currently obvious on radar
and satellite. Therefore will raise pops a bit this afternoon, more
than models would indicate.

After afternoon/evening precipitation dies off, not much expected in
the way of precipitation tonight.

Soundings on Sunday indicate that storms will once again have to
battle off dry air entrainment to get started. With a bit more
moisture available over southeast Ohio and northern WV, will raise
pops a bit there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

Cold front pushes through Monday with showers/storms. Front
should be progressive as to not cause much water concerns
despite wet grounds across southeast Ohio and northern WV. A Much
fresher and cooler airmass arrives behind the front for
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

Uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the mid/late
week omega block across the country. Models continue to waffle
regarding whether a developing low pressure system across the MS
Valley remains connected to the westerlies or if it cuts off
across the southeast states. This will play a significant
determining factor to the sensible weather across our area, with
temps and amount of rainfall. As a result, did not stray much
at all from Superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 PM Saturday...

Added some overnight visibility restrictions to PKB and EKN...
with the former possibly getting into late night shower
activity. Convection also heading towards the CRW vicinity from
the south, but this could fizzle out before it arrives as
daytime heating wanes. Convection has the chance to be in the
area through 03Z, but not going to carry VCTS at any site for
now.

Otherwise, SCT250 to prevail in the warm sector airmass across
the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Decaying convection could arrive at CRW in
the next hour. PKB SHRA is in question.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/30/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


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