Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 021053
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TODAY. UNSETTLED INTO
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WILD WEATHER RIDE THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE.  SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL END UP...BUT AS OF NOW IT APPEARS OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAVE PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS RUNOFF RATES WILL BE
EXTREMELY HIGH. WPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT NOON TODAY...THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WANTED TO
PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM HEAR IN CASE WE SEE ANY EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOP AS EARLIER HRRR RUNS WAS HINTING AT.

ALSO...INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...WITH CAPE OF 1000 - 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35 - 40
KTS IS EXPECTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR EASTERN AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT ACROSS VA...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH NEAR CALM FLOW. HOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON LOBES OF VORTICITY AT H500 AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD KEEP RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CODED LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TODAY.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW STRATUS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED...THEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK



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