Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 161759
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
159 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front front will push through the area Thursday into
Friday and bring unsettled conditions. Generally drier
afterwards until Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

We will be well within the warm sector of system tracking into
the Great Lakes for most of the day tomorrow. Cold front starts
pushing into the region late tomorrow afternoon with current
consensus of guidance having the front near the Ohio Valley
around 0Z Friday. Could see a few scattered showers out ahead of
the front during the day tomorrow with a weak prefrontal trough
pushing through. Otherwise the heaviest rain will not arrive
until after 0Z Friday.

PWATs will be in the 2" range and any showers and storms will
likely contain locally heavy rainfall, but any flash flood
concerns are very low at this time. The best dynamics will
pass just to our north of our CWA, but our NW`rn West Virginia
Counties and Eastern Ohio Counties will be on the fringe of best
lift. Have decided to leave the HWO as is for now with low
probability of Flash Flooding in those areas.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

A front will drive a juicy air mass through the region Thursday
evening with PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Latest model trends
keep most upper level energy to be north of the area which
lends a little more uncertainty to the potential for severe
weather and/or flash flooding due to lack of forcing in our CWA.
Will maintain extra awareness for this period to see if anything
changes. Showers linger Friday. By Saturday morning, weak high
pressure rebuilds for a drier day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

High pressure remains over the region through Monday. Zonal flow
in a weakly forced environment makes this period a low
confidence forecast for timing/precip intensity. A front is
supposed to cross Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

A warm front lifts through overnight with increasing clouds
across the region overnight and maybe even a few isolated
showers. However, showers will most likely be minimal in the
stable warm sector, and will increase in coverage Thursday
afternoon when a cold front approaches.

Cloud cover tonight should limit fog coverage, however any areas
where there are breaks in the clouds could still see IFR fog
develop. Low confidence at this time as to what sites see any
fog at all, but for now have kept borderline IFR fog at PKB as
cloud cover could be less there and also have it at the usual
suspect in EKN and have just MVFR fog at all other site except
BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...other than low confidence overnight
with fog

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and coverage will likely vary
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending
on clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.