Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 292336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
736 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING WITH STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG. A NEW FRONT WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL IS FAIRLY LOW NEAR 35KFT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE UPDRAFTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN WV AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH A DEEP PW PLUME WILL HELP TO CAUSE
DOWNPOURS AGAIN...SO WATCHING WATER IS ANOTHER CONCERN. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE CAN HAVE UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. LUCKILY MOST
OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY...AND
TRAINING IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST
OH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE GFS/NAM MODELS
SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DECREASING SOME AT NIGHT WHILE THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS
SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY.

PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES DONT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING
EXPECTED. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING KEPT LOW POPS AT NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX PASSING BY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT SO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS.

WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND CLOSER TO THE
GFS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT
AT AND AFTER DAY 3.

HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION MOVING NE ACROSS CWA AT TAF ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT TO
TIME POTENTIAL IFR UPSTREAM AS IT HEADS TOWARDS CKB AND EKN. WILL
MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO AMEND IF A CELL APPROACHES A TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLE RIVER VALLEY FOG WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN RAIN THIS EVENING. USED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITIES
KEEPING MOST MVFR DUE TO SOME FLOW AND THE CLOUDS...BUT IFR AT
EKN.

MORE CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND SO INCLUDING VCTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY. CIGS MAY NOT DIP INTO
MVFR TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ


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