Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 020222
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ



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