Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 170227
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1027 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LOWER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...AND SLOWLY MIXING OUT THE LOW STRATUS. MOST APPARENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THIS HOUR. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO DISSOLVE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTENSIVE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD SEE THIS
COMING IN EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE 06Z IN PLACES...AND WILL BE
STUBBORN TO MIX OUT WEDNESDAY.

ALL SHOULD BE QUIET OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS HOWEVER...WILL BE EXPOSED TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE...DRIZZLE...AND THE TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL KEEP SNOWSHOE
BELOW 60F AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS MAY EVEN
BE TOO GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. FEEL THE LOCAL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AREA IS TOO HIGH AS IT PUTS MARLINTON AT 70F. KEEP THE POPS/WEATHER
UNMEASURABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WX REGIME TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK AS AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF COOL NW FLOW. THERE WILL BE SOME STRATOCU AROUND AT
TIMES...MOSTLY DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SE
BY FRIDAY WHICH MAY KEEP MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAY
AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE A WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFICATION AND COLD FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY
THIS FEATURE SO THAT SUNDAY MAY END UP STAYING DRY UNTIL LATE.
DELAYED POPS AND CLOUDS AS A RESULT. ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS THRU AND
THE TROF SETTLES IN...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL SHOT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY
STAYING IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT WELL INTO
THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERING THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LIND FROM KHTS TO KCRW TO KEKN. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED
TO ERODE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT THINK WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR
OVER MOUNTAINOUS SITES SUCH AS KBKW...WHICH WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN
IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 15Z.

OTHERWISE...IFR/LIFR FOG WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS OF CLEARING. WITH
FOG GENERALLY DEVELOPING AFTER 05Z. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AFTER
13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR AREA WIDE...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST. LOW CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CLEAR INSTEAD OF
LINGERING OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 09/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...SL







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