Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 280636
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE BRINGS SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARM WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...

With some areas getting clear skies currently and others expecting
some clear skies later tonight, have lowered overnight lows,
especially in the eastern valleys where winds should stay
decoupled.


AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS.


AS OF 215 PM MONDAY..

BULK OF RAINFALL HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION TO THE NORTH,
ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON A LITTLE WHILE LONGER ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS ATHENS AND PARKERSBURG. AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY. HAVE BROUGHT
LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST, BUT EVENTUALLY LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING
WARMTH, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70 DEGREES FOR A HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND POTENTIAL WATER/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FLOWS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES,
AND 850MB DEWPOINTS ON THE INCREASE TO 10C. DECENT AVAILABLE PW
WITH NAM SHOWING 1.25 INCHES AIDED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS PUSHING
THE 60F MARK, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. LOOKING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STOUT LINE OF STORMS TO ROLL THROUGH WITH A
LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. FROM THE QPF STANDPOINT, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE, AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE CWA. STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BRING WIND, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, HAIL WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT AND SHOULD EASILY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. SPC DAY 3 HAS THE
WHOLE CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK, AND WILL ADD THIS TO THE HWO.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

BROAD SCALE TROUGH ALOFT SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TAKES THE
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL, REINFORCED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE FLOW.
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK INTO THE 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z Tuesday thru 06Z Wednesday...
As of 1 AM Tuesday  ...

Ceilings AOA 5000 feet rapidly dissipating across the north at
06Z, so generally VFR sct-bkn cirrus areawide overnight. We
expect boundary layer winds will be enough to prevent the
typical river valley fog from forming at most TAF sites.

For Tuesday, a wet upper disturbance will move rapidly eastward
across the area. Clouds will lower and thicken rapidly from
west to east with widespread showers accompanying this
disturbance. Deep instability is marginal for thunder, so
included just a slight chance during the day Tuesday with this
band of showers. Look for VFR ceilings becoming MVFR ceilings
and VSBY in the precip, but brief IFR cannot be ruled out.
South winds generally 5 to 10 KTS.

The organized band of showers will exit the mountains Tuesday
evening with the disturbance. MVFR conditions are expected to
continue behind the departing system with the lingering low
level moisture, but again IFR cannot be ruled out and will have
to be monitored. South winds generally 3 to 7 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Generally medium.


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy dense river valley fog may still
form early this morning where winds are calm and clouds
lacking. There may be more IFR this afternoon in the rain, but
especially this upcoming night with lingering low level
moisture..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/28/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV


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