Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281745
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SLIDING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...AND THE HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD IS GOING WITH IT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM W
TO E INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SHORT TERM DATA FROM THE HRRR
IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS...THUS ONLY A
TWEAK OR TWO WAS MADE HERE AND THERE. PV MAX AT THE BASE OF THE
PARENT TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS TX. PRECIP IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE AVIATION
FORECAST...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW...

LACY

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF
OUR AREA. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPTD TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULDN`T PREVENT THE POSSIBILITY OF RADIATION FOG IN THE VALLEYS
OF NW AR TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR FOG
GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO COVER. VSBYS COULD GET LOWER THAN WHAT I
HAVE IN A FEW SPOTS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUD THIS MORNING GENERALLY SKC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SURPRISES TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW TO
MELT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE COLDEST
WEATHER OF THE SEASON TO DATE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT TURNS EAST AND HEADS
OUR WAY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL
AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE...INTENSITY AND DURATION BY THE TIME WE
GET TO NEXT WEEKEND.

PRIOR TO THAT TIME...PERCIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT IN A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AT THE
ONSET...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN THEN BECOMING THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING EVERYWHERE FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND DURATION BECOMES MUCH MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO
OUR NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ONLY MINIMAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
AT BEST. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR A TRACK FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  25  46  24 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   44  27  47  27 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   43  26  48  27 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   41  18  45  23 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   40  23  44  24 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   41  25  46  25 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   39  23  44  23 /   0   0   0  10
F10   41  26  46  26 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   45  27  49  29 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
AVIATION...30




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