Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 120802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF INITIAL
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT
WESTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONGER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE...STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THEA AREA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  75  96  73 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   97  73  99  74 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   97  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  40
FYV   93  68  95  70 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   92  70  94  70 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   94  70  97  73 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   95  71  95  72 /   0  10  20  40
F10   95  70  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   97  72  99  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12




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