Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 080445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT SE OK INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY TOMORROW EVENING THOUGH
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES THE REGION. THAT SAID... HAVE TRIMMED BACK QPF IN THE
GRIDS BEFORE 1 AM DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND RH IN HOURLY GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWEST OF
OKMULGEE TO NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS. THIS AREA HAS
RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS... AND
WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS NE OK / FAR NW AR
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED RANGING
FROM VFR TO OCCASSIONAL IFR AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES PASS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA NEAR THE BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD AREA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS
GREAT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS A UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES TAPERING SLIGHTLY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  78  69  88 / 100  90  50  50
FSM   73  84  70  90 /  80  80  50  30
MLC   71  81  72  87 /  90  90  40  20
BVO   64  77  65  85 / 100  90  50  50
FYV   68  78  68  84 /  90 100  60  40
BYV   67  78  67  84 / 100  90  50  40
MKO   69  78  68  86 / 100 100  60  30
MIO   64  76  65  83 /  90 100  50  50
F10   68  77  70  87 / 100 100  60  20
HHW   74  85  72  89 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07



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