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000
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 16-Apr 18 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 16-Apr 18 2024

             Apr 16       Apr 17       Apr 18
00-03UT       4.00         3.00         4.00
03-06UT       3.33         2.67         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       4.33         2.00         4.33
09-12UT       4.33         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       3.67         2.00         3.33
15-18UT       3.33         2.00         2.67
18-21UT       3.00         4.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         4.00         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 18 Apr due
to the arrival of CMEs from 14 and 15 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 16-Apr 18 2024

              Apr 16  Apr 17  Apr 18
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm on 16-18 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 15 2024 1932 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 16-Apr 18 2024

              Apr 16        Apr 17        Apr 18
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: M-class flares are likely (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a
slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong) on 16-18 Apr.