Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 051230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 05-Jul 07 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 05-Jul 07 2015

            Jul 05     Jul 06     Jul 07
00-03UT        6 (G2)     4          3
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          2
06-09UT        3          4          2
09-12UT        3          4          2
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected early on day
one (05 Jul) before returning to mostly unsettled to active conditions
for the remainder of day one and into day two (06 Jul).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2015

              Jul 05  Jul 06  Jul 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2015

              Jul 05        Jul 06        Jul 07
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists
throughout the forecast period.


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