Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 240031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Oct 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2017

            Oct 24     Oct 25     Oct 26
00-03UT        2          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          5 (G1)     4
09-12UT        3          5 (G1)     4
12-15UT        3          4          3
15-18UT        4          4          4
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          5 (G1)
21-00UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     5 (G1)

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to react with mainly quiet
to active conditions due to SSBC effects, with a few likely periods of
G1 (Minor) storming later on day one (24 Oct), in response to CIR
arrival and CH HSS onset. Day two (25 Oct) is expected to experience
active to minor (G1) storming, with a few periods of G2 (Moderate)
storming likely early, due to enhanced IMF strength associated with CIR
passage and elevated solar wind speeds from the isolated positive
polarity CH HSS. Day three (26 Oct) is expected to respond with
primarily unsettled to active conditions, with likely periods of G1
(Minor) storming as CH HSS effects continue.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2017

              Oct 24  Oct 25  Oct 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2017

              Oct 24        Oct 25        Oct 26
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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