Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 280031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Feb 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2015

            Feb 28     Mar 01     Mar 02
00-03UT        2          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          4          4
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        4          4          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely all three days of
the forecast period (28 Feb - 02 Mar) due to effects from a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2015

              Feb 28  Mar 01  Mar 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2015

              Feb 28        Mar 01        Mar 02
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts
exists all three days of the forecast period (28 Feb - 02 Mar) due to
increased magnetic complexity and growth from Region 2293 (N06E29) and
new Region 2294 (S14W14).


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