Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Feb 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 22-Feb 24 2017

            Feb 22     Feb 23     Feb 24
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        3          4          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        4          3          3
21-00UT        4          4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day two (23 Feb)
due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2017

              Feb 22  Feb 23  Feb 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2017

              Feb 22        Feb 23        Feb 24
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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