Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 111751
DGTGUM

GUZ001>004-260200
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
PMZ161-PMZ171>174-PMZ181-260200
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 AM CHST THU MAY 12 2016

...HELPFUL SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF MICRONESIA BUT
EXTREME DROUGHT DEEPENS FOR SOME NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF YAP STATE AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS REMAIN IN VERY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS
THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES THAT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS MICRONESIA
CONTINUE TO BE IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4 LEVELS).
OVERALL...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED IN SOME AREAS OF
MICRONESIA WHILE THEY HAVE IMPROVED FOR OTHER AREAS.

OF SPECIAL NOTE....UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING
RECENTLY SO THAT THERE HAVE BEEN AND COULD STILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MICRONESIA DURING THE COMING WEEKS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.

ONE OF THE STRONGEST EL NINO EVENTS IN RECORDED HISTORY REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EL NINO ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CONTINUES IN EFFECT.
WHILE THIS EL NINO EVENT HAS PEAKED AND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...THE
ASSOCIATED DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOME MICRONESIAN LOCALES
INTO THE LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS DO
INDICATE...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE SPRING...THEN TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY THE
SUMMER MONTHS AND LIKELY TO LA NINA STATUS LATE IN THE YEAR. AS A
RESULT...THE CPC HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL WORSENING ACROSS PARTS OF MICRONESIA.
BELOW NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL STILL AFFECTS THE MARIANA ISLANDS...THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...KOSRAE...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES
IN THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA AND THE REPUBLIC OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS
PARTS OF PALAU...CHUUK AND POHNPEI. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY WET
MONTH FROM NOW THROUGH LATE SPRING 2016...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS AS 2016 PROGRESSES
TOWARD SUMMER.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS....

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
CONDITIONS IN THE MONTH OF MAY HAVE BEEN DRY WITH COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATING BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WATER
CONSERVATION IS HIGHLY ENCOURAGED. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF FOOD
CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME WORSE AND GRASS FIRES WILL
INCREASE. LIVESTOCK ON TINIAN MAY BECOME STRESSED AS FOOD SOURCES
DRY UP. WATER WELLS ON SAIPAN COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SALINITY AS
THE DROUGHT PROGRESSES.

GUAM...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT TWO MONTHS. ONLY 0.73
INCHES HAS FALLEN AT THE AIRPORT SO FAR IN MAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 55
PERCENT OF NORMAL. WATER SUPPLIES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND SOME WATER
CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN
GUAM WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AND DRINKING WATER PRODUCTION IN THE
SOUTH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF
FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME WORSE AND THE NUMBER OF GRASS
FIRES WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS. SURFACE CRACKS HAVE EMERGED
ACROSS TERRAIN MADE OF CLAY AND THIS INDICATES THE DEPLETION OF SOIL
MOISTURE SO THAT PLANTS WILL SEE INCREASED STRESS.

FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAS DECLARED A STATE OF
EMERGENCY DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

KOROR AND BABELDAOB...
KOROR WAS IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4)...BUT THE
MAIN ISLANDS HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL RAINFALL RECENTLY. RAINFALL FOR
THE KOROR WEATHER OFFICE THUS FAR FOR MAY IS 4.26 INCHES WHICH IS
1.12 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND VARIABLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. WATER RATIONING HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED AND WATER
CONSERVATION IS STILL RECOMMENDED. THE NGERIMEL RESERVOIR HAS LIKELY
RECOVERED FROM ITS VERY LOW LEVELS AND FLOW FROM THE NGERIKIIL RIVER
HAS ALSO INCREASED. ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF GRASS
FIRES AND THE STRESS ON VEGETATION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE NORMAL RAINS RETURN.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF PALAU INCLUDING KAYANGEL...
SOME RAIN HAS FALLEN ON ANGAUR...SONSOROL AND THE MORE SOUTHERN
ATOLLS...BUT OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AT LEAST AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS AND ATOLLS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND
STRICT CONSERVATION MEASURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVOID DEPLETION OF
WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE
SALINITY.

DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF
PALAU. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND
FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND
FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS. DRINKING WATER FROM CATCHMENTS AND
WELLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE LESS POPULATED ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.

FOR THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA (FSM)...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE FSM HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

YAP STATE....

THE GOVERNOR OF YAP STATE HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO
THE ONGOING DROUGHT.

YAP...
DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS YAP. YAP IS NOW IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT
(DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WAS
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 MONTHS. SOME SPOTTY RAINFALL MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY
RELIEF ACROSS MOST OF YAP STATE. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT 1 OR 2
MORE PERIODS OF VERY DRY WEATHER BEFORE NORMAL RAINS RETURN. WATER
SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS
ESSENTIAL. GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE WITH THE DRYNESS. YELLOWING OF
VEGETATION WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT MONTH AND FOOD CROPS COULD
BECOME DAMAGED. THE RESERVOIR ON YAP ISLAND LIKELY REMAINS VERY LOW.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF YAP STATE...
EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS
OF YAP STATE INCLUDING ULITHI...FAIS...FARAULEP...EAURIPIK...WOLEAI
AND SATAWAL. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS HAVE PROVIDED SPOTTY RAINFALL BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 1 TO 2 MONTHS.
WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE ESSENTIAL
TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS...AND WELLS SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. EMERGENCY DRINKING WATER MAY NEED
TO BE TRANSPORTED TO SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.

DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF YAP STATE.
THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND FOOD
ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME A REQUIREMENT IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS
ARE IRREVERSIBLE.

CHUUK STATE...

THE GOVERNOR OF CHUUK STATE HAS DECLARED A DISASTER EMERGENCY DUE TO
THE ONGOING DROUGHT IMPACTS.

CHUUK LAGOON...
BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA...BUT DROUGHT
PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF CHUUK STATE. IT WILL
TAKE MORE RAINFALL AND MORE TIME FOR COMPLETE RECOVERY FROM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED THE NEXT
MONTH OR SO. RAINFALL PATTERNS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED...BUT WATER
CONSERVATION IS STILL NEEDED FOR WENO ISLAND AND TOL DUE TO THEIR
LARGE POPULATIONS AND SMALL COASTAL PLAINS AND AQUIFERS. THE
SOUTHERN MORTLOCK ISLANDS ARE VERY LIKELY OUT OF THE DROUGHT.

RESIDENTS MAY STILL NEED TO BOIL WATER TO PREVENT GASTRO-INTESTINAL
DISEASES. ALSO...EMERGENCY TRANSPORT OF DRINKING WATER MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ATOLLS IF AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD
RETURNS. DROUGHT COULD POSSIBLY WORSEN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
CHUUK STATE DURING THE COMING WEEKS. DROUGHT IMPACTS TO FOOD CROPS
AND VEGETATION HAS OCCURRED AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

LUKUNOR AND OTHER MORTLOCK ISLANDS...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS
AND CLOSE TO NORMAL RAINFALL IS NOW EXPECTED GOING FORWARD. WATER
SUPPLIES SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS
ENCOURAGED. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.
OVERALL...THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCK ISLANDS ARE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO RAINFALL.

SERIOUS DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THE
HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

POHNPEI STATE...

THE GOVERNOR OF POHNPEI STATE HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY
DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT IMPACTS.

POHNPEI...
A MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) CONTINUES FOR POHNPEI
ISLAND...MAINLY BECAUSE RECOVERY WILL TAKE MORE TIME. RAINFALL FOR
THE MONTH OF MAY HAS BEEN ABOUT NORMAL SO FAR. PERIODS OF BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND WATER
CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. AGRICULTURAL CROPS ARE LIKELY BEING
GROWN AT HIGHER AND STEEPER ELEVATIONS...SO CLAY SOIL THAT IS BARE
OF VEGETATION COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEADLY MUDSLIDES DURING HEAVY
RAIN EVENTS.


OUTLYING ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE...
PINGELAP...MOKIL...PAKIN AND SAPWUAFIK ATOLLS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL RECENTLY. SHOWERS COULD STILL BE SPOTTY IN THE COMING WEEKS
AND DRY PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED
AND WATER CONSERVATION IS STILL RECOMMENDED...AND WELLS SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. RESIDENTS MAY NEED TO BOIL WATER
TO PREVENT GASTRO-INTESTINAL DISEASES. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS
LIKELY OCCURRED AND THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE MONITORED.

NUKUORO AND KAPINGAMARANGI WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL.

KOSRAE STATE....

THE GOVERNOR OF KOSRAE STATE HAS DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY TO
ADDRESS THE DROUGHT IMPACTS.

KOSRAE...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS KOSRAE AS MOST SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST RECENTLY...BUT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. KOSRAE MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A SEVERE
DROUGHT DURING THIS EL NINO EVENT...BUT IT IS ADVISABLE TO MONITOR
AND CONSERVE WATER SUPPLIES AND PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS DECLARED A
STATE OF DISASTER DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. MANY ATOLLS
HAVE REQUESTED AND OBTAINED ASSISTANCE. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS REMAIN
IN SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT. IT WILL TAKE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TIME
FOR RECOVERY EVEN THOUGH HELPFUL RAINS HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED.

NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
THE NORTHERN ATOLLS INCLUDING WOTJE...AUR...UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN AND
EBEYE...BIKINI...AND ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
DURING THE COMING WEEKS. RAINFALL IN THE MONTH OF MAY HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED BUT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE GREATLY AT RISK AND
CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE ESSENTIAL TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS AND
CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.
DRINKING WATER AND REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED TO
SEVERAL NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS.

MAJURO AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
MAJURO...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP AND NEARBY ATOLLS HAVE RECEIVED SOME
SHOWERS RECENTLY...BUT WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL
IN THE COMING WEEKS. MAJURO HAS RECEIVED 5.14 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THUS FAR IN MAY WHICH IS 1.84 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHER ATOLLS HAVE
ALSO RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE STILL AT RISK AND
CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE ESSENTIAL TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS AND
CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.
DRINKING WATER ASSISTANCE WILL BE NEEDED ON THE MORE POPULATED
ATOLLS. WATER RATIONING IS ONGOING FOR MAJURO DUE TO ITS LARGE
POPULATION AND LIMITED FRESH WATER STORAGE CAPACITY.

SEVERE DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF THE DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS
IRREVERSIBLE. LIMITED FRESH WATER MAY RESULT IN A DETERIORATION OF
PEOPLES HEALTH WITH AN INCREASE IN PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL
PROBLEMS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS EL NINO WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY SUMMER AND LA NINA CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE YEAR. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AT MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGH SPRING 2016 BEFORE RAINFALL RETURNS TO NORMAL.
RAINS WILL LIKELY BE OF SHORTER DURATION...LESS INTENSE AND LESS
FREQUENT THAN NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WILL SEE
RELIEF BEFORE THE MORE NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ATOLLS.

RECENT RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                FEB    MAR    APR    MAY     MAY TO DATE  MAY TO DATE
                                     (1-10)  NORMAL       % NORMAL

KOROR WSO       2.55   2.68   9.90   4.26     3.14        136
PELELIU         1.93   2.63   6.35   2.82     3.84         73
YAP WSO         1.77   0.70   2.56   0.42     2.42         17
ULITHI          2.61   0.62   3.24   0.80     2.61         31
WOLEAI          0.22   0.58   2.41   1.04     3.15         33
GUAM INTL AP    3.63   1.63   1.31   0.73     1.47         50
ROTA            2.07   4.36   0.91   1.52     2.03         75
TINIAN          1.61   3.00   0.97   0.32     0.87         37
SAIPAN          2.72   3.29   1.78   0.51     0.92         55
CHUUK           2.59   7.08  10.73   6.14     3.61        170
FANANU          1.74   0.61   4.26   3.26     3.25        100
ONUON           2.56   0.36   4.05   3.86     NA          NA
PULUWAT         4.81   1.24   2.71   4.66     3.13        149
LUKUNOR         5.46   7.70  12.83   9.24     4.57        202
POHNPEI         4.64   5.76  11.01   6.22     6.22        100
PINGELAP        2.65   1.52   5.39   1.99     4.92         40
KOSRAE         14.56   5.17   4.05   1.31     5.80         23
KWAJALEIN       0.46   1.05   1.13   1.48     2.14         68
JALUIT          3.69   1.63   4.52   0.97     3.88         25
WOTJE           0.05   0.28   0.16   1.44     1.79         80
UTIRIK          0.94   0.77   1.86   0.16     2.71          6
MAJURO          3.17   1.33   2.05   5.14     3.30        156

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
NORTH OF 10N THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD
COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FOR THE MARIANA
ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND PARTS OF YAP STATE.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS...THE
DROUGHT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA. IN GENERAL...THERE
REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION EXCEPT FOR KOSRAE... KAPINGAMARANGI...NUKUORO AND THE
SOUTHERN CHUUK ATOLLS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AT ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DRYNESS WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR THE FAR NORTHERN CNMI. LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
MONTH OR TWO AT LEAST.

GUAM...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH JUNE.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 OR 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED BECAUSE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

OUTLYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE VARIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE LIKLEY FOR MOST ISLANDS OF PALAU THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BECAUSE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
TIMES WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

YAP STATE...
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT YAP STATE WILL
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT MONTH OR
TWO. SPECIFIC ISLANDS AFFECTED INCLUDE YAP AND FAIS ALONG WITH ALL
YAP STATE ATOLLS. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE VARIABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
TOWARD THE NORTH. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BECAUSE
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

CHUUK STATE...
THE RAINFALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED FOR CHUUK STATE. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
10 DAYS FOR MOST ISLANDS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER AND
WILL LIKLEY PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WATER SUPPLIES. ALSO...RAINFALL COULD
STILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO.

POHNPEI STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE VARIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COMING WEEKS...BUT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS POHNPEI STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER
BECAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH
RAIN WATER.

KOSRAE STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE ADEQUATE BUT VARIABLE IN
THE COMING WEEKS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR KOSRAE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER
BECAUSE A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH
RAIN WATER.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

MAJURO...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE HELPFUL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. PEOPLE SHOULD MAINTAIN
CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT BECAUSE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR NORTHERN AREAS NEAR AUR...WOTJE...
UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN AND EBEYE...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FOR NEXT
WEEK...MORE TRADE-WIND SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE UP TO AROUND ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. EVEN WITH MORE RAINFALL...THE
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKS AND RECOVERY WILL
TAKE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAINFALL AND MORE TIME.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE FOR JALUIT...
AILINGALAPLAP AND ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
SHOULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR MOST ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
BECAUSE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN
WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY MAY 26...2016...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/
...DROUGHT STATEMENT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND
CHUUK STATE...

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
THE MAY 9TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR
ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU INTO YAP STATE AND ACROSS CHUUK STATE
INTO POHNPEI STATE...OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF 10N FROM 130E TO 160E.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION CENTER IN
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE
CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND
SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU
FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT
MAJURO...POHNPEI...CHUUK...YAP AND KOROR AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICE MAJURO AND THE INTERNATIONAL OFFICE FOR MIGRATION OFFICES IN
POHNPEI...CHUUK...YAP AND MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
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