Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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AXUS74 KHUN 221736
DGTHUN
ALC049-071-089-095-TNC051-241745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1236 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK...WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES DUE TO D2 CONDITIONS EXPANDING OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

SYNOPSIS:
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID TUESDAY...SEPTEMBER 20TH
2016...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCURRED SINCE
THE ISSUANCE ON THE 13TH. IN DEKALB COUNTY...WHERE PREVIOUSLY
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY...MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE INTRODUCED TO ALL
BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF
NOTE WAS THE INTRODUCTION OF MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. ALL OTHER AREAS
(INCLUDING LINCOLN...FRANKLIN...AND MOORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE) REMAINED IN THE SAME DESIGNATIONS AS LAST WEEK`S DROUGHT
MONITOR ISSUANCE.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: THE MOST RECENT DECLARATION FROM THE
ALABAMA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND COMMUNITY AFFAIRS (ADECA) OFFICE
OF WATER RESOURCES INDICATES THAT ALL ALABAMA COUNTIES IN THE COUNTY
WARNING AND FORECAST AREA OF THE HUNTSVILLE NWS OFFICE ARE IN A
`DROUGHT WATCH`. THIS IS A DOWNGRADE FROM THE DROUGHT WARNING WHICH
WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS SUMMER.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
PER THE LATEST CROP AND PROGRESS CONDITION REPORT FROM THE USDA
NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...FARM SERVICE AGENTS IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE REPORT THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS ARE VERY
HELPFUL FOR THE HARVESTING OF CROPS...BUT THAT THE LACK OF RAINFALL
HAS REDUCED THE USUAL YIELDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK...THIS HAS AIDED
IN MAKING THE FINAL CUTTING OF HAY (THOUGH IN THE DRIER LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE COUNTY...FARMERS ARE HAVING TO SUPPLEMENT HAY IN THE
FEEDING OF CATTLE).

NO REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM FARM SERVICE AGENTS IN NORTH ALABAMA
THIS WEEK.

COUNTIES IN EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ FOR ANY PORTION OF TIME
AUTOMATICALLY QUALIFY FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA)
PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER STATUS. AS OF AUGUST 17TH...THE USDA HAD
OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED DEKALB...JACKSON...MARSHALL...MADISON...
MORGAN...LIMESTONE...LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES AS PRIMARY
NATURAL DISASTER AREAS DUE TO DAMAGES AND LOSSES CAUSED BY THE
RECENT DROUGHT. IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FRANKLIN...LINCOLN
AND MOORE COUNTIES ARE ALSO INCLUDED. PER THE USDA...THE CONTIGUOUS
COUNTIES OF CULLMAN...COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES ARE ALSO
INCLUDED IN THE DISASTER DECLARATION. ANY FURTHER NATURAL DISASTER
DECLARATIONS PERTAINING TO DROUGHT WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT
DROUGHT STATEMENT ISSUANCE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION FIRE ALERTS OR
DROUGHT EMERGENCIES ISSUED. STATE FORESTER GREG PATE IS STILL URGING
EVERYONE TO USE ALL NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DOING ANY TYPE
OF OUTDOOR BURNING. TO OBTAIN A BURN PERMIT...CONTACT THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION DISPATCH CENTER FOR YOUR COUNTY. LOCAL COUNTY
AND CITY LAWS MAY RESTRICT OUTDOOR BURNING HOWEVER...SO BURNERS ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTACTING THEIR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS NO CURRENT BURN RESTRICTIONS
IN PLACE AND BURN PERMITS ARE CURRENTLY NOT REQUIRED BY THE
DIVISION. HOWEVER...BURNERS ARE URGED TO CHECK FOR ANY LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO CONDUCTING BURNING ACTIVITY.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AVAILABLE FROM THE U.S. FOREST
SERVICE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM INDICATES VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 600 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
ALABAMA...INCLUDING FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. ONLY FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA ARE INCLUDED IN THE 500-600 RANGE. JUST TO THE
EAST IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 700.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:
OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS...RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE BELOW
NORMAL. ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED SURPLUSES OF RAINFALL: FAR
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA RECEIVED MORE THAN INCH ABOVE NORMAL, AND
PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN AND COLBERT COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
ALSO RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PAST WEEK.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL, NORTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN LIMESTONE
RECEIVED NO RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WERE LARGELY ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FALLING OVER THE
WEEKEND (WHEN MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION).

DURING THE SPRING AND INTO SUMMER /MARCH THROUGH EARLY SEPTEMBER/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH HAS HELPED LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AT
HUNTSVILLE...THIS PERIOD RANKS AS THE 2ND WARMEST ON RECORD. AT
MUSCLE SHOALS AND SCOTTSBORO...THIS PERIOD RANKS AS THE 3RD WARMEST
ON RECORD.

CLOSE TO THE HEART OF THE DROUGHT IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AT
SCOTTSBORO...THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITE AT RADIO STATION WWIC IN
DOWNTOWN IS 4.38 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS. FOR THE
LAST SIX MONTHS...THE SITE IS 11.49 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA. WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT HAS YET
TO BE DETERMINED. FOR NOW...LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /SEP 29TH - OCT 5TH/ FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATELY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 15TH TO
DECEMBER 31ST INDICATES THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER...WITH AREAS NOT CURRENTLY
INCLUDED IN ANY DROUGHT DECLARATIONS DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RIVER AND CREEK STREAMFLOWS HAVE DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST
SEVEN DAYS...WITH THE FOLLOWING SITES REPORTING LOW STREAMFLOWS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR:

CYPRESS CREEK NEAR FLORENCE: 4TH PERCENTILE
PAINT ROCK RIVER AT WOODVILLE: 7TH PERCENTILE
SOUTH SAUTY CREEK NEAR RAINSVILLE: 16TH PERCENTILE

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE THE 20TH
PERCENTILE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE.

LAKE LEVELS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNAFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
THIS YEAR. LAKES WITHIN THE HEAVILY REGULATED TENNESSEE RIVER SYSTEM
ARE OPERATING WITHIN NORMAL POOL LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS BEAR
CREEK...WHICH IS OPERATING SLIGHTLY ABOVE ITS OPERATING CURVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ALABAMA POWER REPORTS THAT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON SOME LAKE LEVELS UNDER THEIR
CONTROL...INCLUDING LEWIS SMITH LAKE. THE LAKE IS OPERATING BELOW
ITS NORMAL GUIDE CURVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST DAILY SOIL
MOISTURE RANKINGS AS OF SEPTEMBER 21ST INDICATE SOME DETERIORATION IN
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE PAST WEEK. VALUES ARE STILL LOWEST OVER
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA (BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE)...AND NOW VALUES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA HAVE FALLEN FROM AROUND/SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 30TH
PERCENTILE (LAST WEEK) DOWN BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 20TH PERCENTILES
(THIS WEEK).

THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GROUNDWATER WELL SITE IN CULLMAN COUNTY
SHOWS THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS FELL BELOW THE DAILY MEDIAN VALUE
DURING THE MARCH TO LATE APRIL PERIOD AND HAVE SINCE REMAINED BELOW
AVERAGE SINCE THAT TIME. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT THE MONITORING SITE
IN LAWRENCE COUNTY HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE MARKEDLY SINCE LATE
AUGUST.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS FOR GRADUAL DEGRADATION ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED NEXT THURSDAY...SEPTEMBER
29TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
/USE LOWER CASE/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WEB PAGE...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

FOR MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. THERE YOU CAN FIND MORE DROUGHT
RELATED INFORMATION BY CLICKING ON THE DROUGHT LINK NEAR THE BOTTOM
OF THE PAGE.

FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATIONS...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.ADECA.ALABAMA.GOV/DIVISIONS/OWR/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX

FOR INFORMATION FROM THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION...VISIT
HTTP://FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV/

RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

STREAMFLOWS ARE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS AT...
HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/INDEX.PHP

LAKE LEVELS FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER LAKES CAN BE OBTAINED FROM
HTTP://WWW.TVA.COM/LAKEINFO/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND
TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

AMIN



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