Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
AXUS74 KJAN 182302 CCA
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
...Extreme Drought conditions across small portion of West
...Severe Drought conditions spread most of West Central
Mississippi, north portions Northeast Louisiana and Southeast
...Moderate Drought conditions spread across South Mississippi
and southern portions of Northeast Louisiana...
Since the last Drought Statement on the 4th, rainfall has been at or
below normal across much of the ARKLAMISS Region. Only scattered
areas of above normal rainfall was noted across Southwest
Mississippi and Northeast Louisiana south of I-20.
From the 4th through the 8th, high pressure over the East Coast
with a southeasterly flow allowed some isolated to scattered showers
to form over much of the region. From the 8th to the 12th, an upper
level trough pushed into the Central U.S. allowing a front to move
into northern sections of the Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). The
front washed out on the 11th. This was followed by an strong cold
front that pushed through to the Mississippi Gulf Coast by the 12th.
This brought some scattered areas of moderate rainfall to locations
that have not had much rainfall this summer.
As stated above, rainfall was mostly below normal across the area.
A combination of the below normal rainfall and the low humidity
experienced after the front on the 11th have allowed to conditions
to continue to worsen.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
The agriculture season has been about feast and famine. During
the spring, fields were too wet to get into to prepare. Beginning
in June, rainfall began to taper off across the region. Rainfall
that has occurred since June has been scattered across the area.
Some areas have had heavy rainfall at times, this was not always as
good as it looked since much of it ran off quickly and did not soak
into the soil.
Crop moisture indices show Excessively dry to Severely dry soils
across Northeast Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, and all but the
Northeast corner of Mississippi. Reports from various Mississippi
Extension Service agents show that crop yield are down
significantly. Soybeans look to be down from 1/2 to 1/3 normal yield
while peanuts and cotton are having yields about half of normal
yield. Pasture land has taken a hit all across the WFO Jackson Area.
In some areas, cattle are already being fed hay. Fall pastureland is
in trouble as well unless fall rains start soon. Cattle ponds are
falling rapidly and the water quality for the water remaining is in
question. Some streams that dry up periodically are no longer
flowing with only permanent streams still flowing.
Scattered rainfall prior to September 12th helped some across
agricultural areas in Northeast Louisiana south of I-20. The dry
weather since that time has allowed drought conditions to once
Fire Danger Impacts
Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KDBI) Values from 600 to 800 are
associated with an increased wildfire threat. Intense, deep
burning fires can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to
burn actively at these levels.
KDBI values are greater than 700 across Northeast
Louisiana north of I-20, portions of Southeast Arkansas, and
parts of the Yazoo Delta Region of Mississippi. Some wild fires
have been reported across this area. The remainder of the WFO
Jackson Forecast Area has KDBI values between 600 and 700.
Louisiana Parish Fire Bans...
Morehouse, West Carroll, Richland, and Catahoula Parishes
Southeast Arkansas Fire Bans...
Ashley and Chicot Counties.
Mississippi Fire Bans...
Madison, Hinds, Yazoo, Adams, Copiah, Franklin, Humphreys,
Lincoln, Rankin, Smith, Jefferson Davis, and Simpson Counties.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Water Watch web page
shows 7 day average streamflow at Extreme Hydrologic Drought
conditions in the Tensas River Basin of Northeast Louisiana. Severe
Hydrologic Drought conditions exist across the Yazoo River Basin in
Mississippi. Portions of the Upper Pearl, Upper Pascagoula
tributaries in Central Mississippi also are in Severe Hydrologic
Drought. Most of the other river systems in Mississippi, Northeast
Louisiana, and Southeast Arkansas are experiencing Moderate
Hydrologic Drought Conditions.
There are currently no known water restrictions.
Temperatures have been hot this summer. Jackson had the 10th
warmest summer on record. Hattiesburg had the 5th warmest and
Vicksburg-Tallulah had the 7th warmest summer on record.
Dry conditions have prevailed this summer. Rainfall over the last
90 days has ranged from 25 to 75 percent of normal from the Jackson
Metropolitan Area to Clairborne County northward to Bolivar and
Sunflower Counties in the Delta. For Northeast Louisiana north of
I-20, rainfall has ranged from 35 to 70 percent of normal while
Southeast Arkansas, remainder of Northeast Louisiana, and much of
the remainder of Mississippi has had 55 to 90 percent of the normal
rainfall. East Mississippi counties have had 70 percent to 110
percent of normal rainfall.
CITY: SUMMER RAIN DEPARTURE SEPTEMBER RAIN DEPARTURE
(JUN-SEP18) FROM NORM FROM NORM
JACKSON 9.07 IN -5.80 0.74 IN -0.96
HAWKINS AP 9.45 IN -5.24 1.78 IN -0.01
MERIDIAN 13.49 IN -1.98 0.85 IN -1.09
TALLULAH 10.62 IN -2.56 0.44 IN -1.47
HATTIESBURG 13.76 IN -4.33 0.37 IN -2.10
GREENWOOD/ 6.31 IN -6.44 0.18 IN -1.83
GREENVILLE 7.84 IN -4.25 0.48 IN -1.31
High pressure with warmer temperatures will prevail through the
weekend. A mostly dry front will push across the area on Sunday.
Only slight chances of rainfall are in the forecast between Sunday
and Monday with the greatest chances in the north and northwest
region of our forecast area. Drier and cooler air will move in
early in the week. 7 day rainfall forecasts show very little
rainfall for us.
The Three Month Temperature Outlook for October through
December... issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on
September 17th indicates equal chances for Above Normal...Near
Normal...or Below Normal temperatures. The three month rainfall
outlook through December indicates Above Normal probabilities for
above normal rainfall. The above normal rainfall is due to a
strengthening EL NINO.
Hydrologic Summary and Outlook...
Ross Barnett Reservoir on the Pearl River has fallen
steadily since the middle of July and the pool is at 296.05 feet on
September 18th. This is well below its normal pool of 297.5 feet.
Grenada Lake in North Mississippi is 210.30 feet on September 18th.
The lake has fallen over 10 feet since the middle of July.
Okatibbee Reservoir near Meridian has pool of 340.60 as of September
18th. The lake has fallen about 2 feet since the middle of July.
Pools will continue to slowly fall.
Rivers and streams in the area will continue to fall until
substantial rainfall occurs.
Next Issuance Date...
The Next Drought Statement will be issued during the first week of
October or as conditions warrant.
Related Web Sites...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON: weather.gov/jan
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: www.drought.gov
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: Droughtmonitor.unl.edu
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: www.droughtreporter.unl.edu
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: www.losc.lsu.edu
LS AG CENTER: www.lsuagcenter.com
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: http://water.usgs.gov
LA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BURN BANS:
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: www.arkfireinfo.org
MISSISSIPPI FIRE BANS INFORMATION: www.mfc.ms.gov/burn-bans.php
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATE OFFICE:
The U.S. Drought Monitor is a facilitated collaboration among
various agencies...including the National Weather Service...State
Climatologist...the Climate Prediction Center...and the U.S.
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been
gathered from NWS/FAA observation sites...the USDA..the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers..USGS...forestry interest in Mississippi,
Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Questions or comments...
If you have any questions about information on this statement,
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
234 WEATHER SERVICE DRIVE
JACKSON, MS 39232
PHONE: (601) 936-2189