Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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AXUS71 KLWX 011334
DGTLWX
DCC001-MDC001-003-005-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-VAC003-
013-047-059-061-079-107-113-137-153-157-177-179-510-540-600-610-
630-683-685-WVC003-065-160000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
831 AM EST THU DEC 1 2016

...RECENT RAINS KEEP DROUGHT FROM WORSENING FURTHER...

SYNOPSIS...
AS OF NOVEMBER 29TH 2016...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS...
EXCEPT FOR NELSON...KING GEORGE...CHARLES...CALVERT...AND SAINT
MARY`S COUNTIES. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN MOST OF CALVERT AND SAINT MARY`S
COUNTIES. THIS IS UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AS OF NOVEMBER 30TH 2016...THERE WERE NO DROUGHT DECLARATIONS
ISSUED FOR THE AREA BY LOCAL/STATE GOVERNMENTS.

SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE
DROUGHT /D1/ AREA. THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE HELP
IN TOPSOIL MOISTURE. COUNTY AGRICULTURE OFFICIALS INDICATE THAT
THE DRY WEATHER HAS BEEN HELPFUL FOR THE HARVEST BUT STRESSES TO
HAY AND PASTURELANDS ARE OCCURRING.

PRIOR TO THE RECENT RAINS...THERE HAD BEEN SOME REPORTS OF FIRE
ACTIVITY. BURN RESTRICTIONS WERE IN PLACE IN FAUQUIER...NELSON...
ROCKINGHAM...AND PAGE COUNTIES...AND THE CITY OF STAUNTON. THIS
INFORMATION CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY AS CONDITIONS ARE REASSESSED...SO
CONSULT WITH YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT BEFORE CONSIDERING OUTDOOR
BURNING.

GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH FREEZES OCCURRING AND PLANTS GOING
DORMANT FOR THE WINTER...IMPACTS OF THE DRY WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY
RELATIVELY MINIMAL.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RECENT RAINFALL AT THE END OF THE MONTH MADE UP AROUND HALF OF
THE NOVEMBER RAINFALL DEFICIT. THIS COMES NOWHERE CLOSE TO
ELIMINATING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES STOP THE
CONDITIONS FROM DETERIORATING FURTHER.

THREE-MONTH RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN...WHICH
ENCOMPASSES 9/1/16 TO 11/30/16...IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE DROUGHT
AREA INCLUDE:
REAGAN AIRPORT.....6.13 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...7TH DRIEST
DULLES AIRPORT.....5.61 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...4TH DRIEST
BWI AIRPORT........4.01 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...13TH DRIEST
EMMITSBURG MD......4.39 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...6RD DRIEST
ORANGE.............4.96 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...11TH DRIEST
CHARLOTTESVILLE....5.52 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
/THE ABOVE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CORRECTION/

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY DECEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD ARE
LIMITED TO A WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 6TH
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A HALF TO ONE INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE IN A WINTRY FORM
IN SOME AREAS/.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO /DECEMBER 8TH THROUGH 14TH/ STRONGLY
FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND INDICATES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...HOWEVER...THE MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR
DECEMBER 2016 DOES INDICATE THAT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO END BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH...GIVEN A PATTERN SHIFT TO
WETTER CONDITIONS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RECENT RAINS HAVE BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT AREA
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE HOW MUCH BASEFLOW RECHARGE OCCURS TO KNOW IF THE RAIN WAS
ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE PREVIOUS BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW ENTIRELY.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM THE RECENT
RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND...BUT DO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE
FALL LINE.

AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN LOCALLY IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...AND THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK
INDICATING ALLEVIATION OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...IT APPEARS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN STREAMFLOW AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEKS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED ON THURSDAY DECEMBER 15TH.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES...

US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/DROUGHT
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
43858 WEATHER SERVICE ROAD
STERLING, VA 20166
PHONE...703-996-2200
LWXWEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

JELLIOTT


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