Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 
000
AXUS74 KLZK 021640
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-030600-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

...MODERATE DROUGHT IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...DROUGHT SITUATION CONTINUES IMPROVING...

SYNOPSIS...

RAINFALL WAS APPRECIABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS IN
APRIL...AND ALSO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. THAT WAS NOT THE CASE
ELSEWHERE. IN THE SOUTHWEST...SOME SPOTS RECEIVED LESS THAN HALF
OF THE NORMAL RAIN.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR
LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND
D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID MAY 2ND 2013...
INDICATED D1 /6 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPECIFICALLY...A MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT AFFECTED MOST AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF DE QUEEN /SEVIER COUNTY/...MURFREESBORO /PIKE COUNTY/
AND MAGNOLIA /COLUMBIA COUNTY/. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...WHILE
THERE WERE SOME D0 CONDITIONS...THERE WAS NO DROUGHT AT ALL IN
EIGHTY PERCENT OF THE STATE.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

LOCALES THAT GOT SURPLUS PRECIPITATION INCLUDED EL DORADO /UNION
COUNTY/...FAYETTEVILLE /WASHINGTON COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON
COUNTY/ AND WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN COUNTY/. TOTALS WERE MORE
THAN AN INCH BELOW NORMAL AT TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN APRIL 2013...

SITE                  AMOUNT      DEPARTURE     PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   5.53         +0.93           120
HARRISON /NC AR/       4.12         -0.20            95
JONESBORO /NE AR/      4.65         -0.37            93
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     3.73         -0.57            87
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     4.33         -0.81            84
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   6.08         +0.70           113
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      2.77         -1.16            70
EL DORADO /SC AR/      4.31         +0.22           105
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     5.14         +0.21           104

FOR THE YEAR /2013/ THUS FAR...PRECIPITATION WAS STILL POSITIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. MEASUREMENTS AT EL DORADO /UNION COUNTY/ AND TEXARKANA
/MILLER COUNTY/ WERE ALREADY SUBPAR BY MORE THAN THREE INCHES.

PRECIPITATION IN 2013 /THROUGH APRIL/...

SITE                  AMOUNT      DEPARTURE     PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/  15.86         +1.56           111
HARRISON /NC AR/      13.34         +0.03           100
JONESBORO /NE AR/     16.53         -0.14            99
FORT SMITH /WC AR/    15.58         +1.86           114
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/    18.46         +1.43           108
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  22.46         +3.51           119
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     10.82         -4.70            70
EL DORADO /SC AR/     14.03         -3.90            78
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/    20.27         +2.12           112

DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE STILL HANGING ON IN THE WEST FOLLOWING THE
SECOND WARMEST AND TENTH DRIEST YEAR /2012/ ON RECORD IN ARKANSAS.

RANK    YEAR   AVG. TEMP /DEG F/    YEAR     AVG. PRECIP /INCHES/
 1      1921         63.70          1963            32.35
 2      2012         63.40          1943            34.81
 3      1998         63.10          1936            34.94
 4      1938         63.00          1901            35.44
 5      1954         62.90          2005            36.21
 6      1933         62.70          1924            37.24
 7      1927         62.60          1954            37.77
 8      1925         62.50          1896            37.86
 9      1896         62.30          2010            39.11
10      1911         62.30          2012            39.79

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL STATEWIDE. THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS WERE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE LOWEST
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

STREAMFLOW WAS ALSO ABOUT NORMAL...BUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

OVERALL...AREA LAKES WERE IN DECENT SHAPE. LEVELS WERE GENERALLY
AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE POOL CAPACITIES.

LAKE INFORMATION ON MAY 1ST 2013...

LOCATION                  7 AM LEVEL /FT/     CONSERVATION POOL /FT/

BEAVER LAKE /NW AR/           1121.0               1121.4
TABLE ROCK LAKE /SW MO/        916.3                916.0
BULL SHOALS /NC AR/            659.9                655.0
NORFORK LAKE /NC AR/           557.6                554.8
GREERS FERRY /NC AR/           462.4                463.0
NIMROD LAKE /C AR/             345.6                345.0
GILLHAM LAKE /SW AR/           502.8                502.0
MILLWOOD LAKE /SW AR/          259.5                259.2

ON MAY 2ND...THERE WAS A LOW WILDFIRE DANGER...AND NO BURN BANS
WERE DECLARED IN ANY OF THE 75 ARKANSAS COUNTIES.

FORECAST...

AS FAR AS THE FUTURE WEATHER PATTERN...NEUTRAL CONDITIONS /CLOSE
TO NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN/ ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE SUMMER. GIVEN A NEUTRAL SCENARIO...
RESEARCH THROUGH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A BIAS
TOWARD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD /MAY
THROUGH MID-JUNE 2013/...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT /SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER A WIDE AREA/ IF THE
RIGHT INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER /I.E. A SLOWLY MOVING OR STALLED
FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/. AS LONG AS COOL AIR MASSES CONTINUE TO
PENETRATE THIS FAR SOUTH /TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES/...
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY.

THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE PERIOD WINDS
DOWN /LATE JUNE THROUGH JULY 2013/. THIS WOULD NOT BE UNUSUAL AS
SUMMER USUALLY FEATURES SCATTERED/HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS PROMISING...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
STAVE OFF DROUGHT IN MUCH OF THE STATE. THE AREA TO MONITOR THE MOST
CLOSELY IS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE
MOST DRY TO BEGIN THE YEAR.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DROUGHT2012.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

46
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.