Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 181206
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-170000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
605 AM CST MON DEC 18 2017

...MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN MOST OF ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET SUMMER IN ARKANSAS...THE RAIN SHUT OFF DURING THE
FALL. AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...IT WAS THE DRIEST FALL SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN MORE THAN A HUNDRED YEARS AGO.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID DECEMBER 12TH 2017...
INDICATED WIDESPREAD D1 /97 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D2 /87 PERCENT
COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS...WITH D3 /42 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND A FEW COUNTIES IN
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ BEGAN DEVELOPING IN THE FALL. THIS OFTEN RESULTS
IN MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND
THAT IS WHAT HAS TAKEN PLACE LOCALLY.

SO FAR IN DECEMBER /THROUGH THE 13TH/...MONTHLY PRECIPITATION WAS
AN INCH TO MORE THAN TWO INCHES BELOW AVERAGE. LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN THE NORTH...INCLUDING
FAYETTEVILLE /WASHINGTON COUNTY/...HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/...AND
JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER 2017 /THROUGH THE 13TH/...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/     TRACE      1.48      -1.48          0
HARRISON /NC AR/         TRACE      1.49      -1.49          0
JONESBORO /NE AR/         0.23      2.27      -2.04         10
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        0.29      1.55      -1.26         19
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        0.86      2.25      -1.39         38
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      1.28      2.68      -1.40         48
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         0.56      2.31      -1.75         24
EL DORADO /SC AR/         0.62      2.39      -1.77         26
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        1.06      2.46      -1.40         43

FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 30TH /91 DAYS/...SIX TO
TWELVE INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE COMMON. PRECIPITATION WAS LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN PLACES SUCH AS JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD
COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...AND PINE BLUFF
/JEFFERSON COUNTY/. AT THESE SITES...UNDER THREE INCHES OF LIQUID
WAS MEASURED.

PRECIPITATION FROM SEPTEMBER 1 - NOVEMBER 30 2017...

SITE                     AMOUNT    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/      6.47     13.38      -6.91         48
HARRISON /NC AR/          3.83     11.98      -8.15         32
JONESBORO /NE AR/         2.43     12.22      -9.79         20
FORT SMITH /WC AR/        3.57     12.81      -9.24         28
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/        2.24     13.37     -11.13         17
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/      5.17     12.00      -6.83         43
TEXARKANA /SW AR/         4.29     13.18      -8.89         33
EL DORADO /SC AR/         3.73     13.19      -9.46         28
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/        2.01     12.52     -10.51         16

IT WAS THE DRIEST FALL ON RECORD AT MONTICELLO /DREW COUNTY/...
MOUNT IDA /MONTGOMERY COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON COUNTY/...AND
RUSSELLVILLE /POPE COUNTY/. RECORDS AT THESE SITES GO BACK TO THE
1870S AND 1880S!

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

AS OF DECEMBER 14TH...THERE WAS A HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER IN ALL
OF ARKANSAS. BURN BANS WERE POSTED IN 70 /OF 75/ COUNTIES.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. VALUES IN
MUCH OF THE OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/ WERE IN THE 5TH PERCENTILE OR LESS
/30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/.

STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS EXTREMELY LOW AT MOST SITES.
VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE...BUT LESS
THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS /25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/.

FORECAST...

IN THE SHORT TERM...AFTER A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN
MUCH OF ARKANSAS LATE ON DECEMBER 16TH AND EARLY ON THE 17TH...MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THE 19TH/20TH AND AGAIN FROM THE 22ND
THROUGH THE 25TH. FRONTS WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND WILL
INTERACT WITH STORM SYSTEMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE FRONTS WILL BE WRUNG OUT AS HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

THROUGH THE 25TH...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/ TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS WILL NOT
END THE DROUGHT /GIVEN LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS IN THE FALL/...THERE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF.

MOVING FORWARD...A WEAK LA NINA /COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER ALONG THE
EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ IS EXPECTED DURING THE WINTER AND
INTO THE EARLY SPRING. GIVEN THIS...COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY VISIT
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LESS THAN USUAL...AND STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE LESS THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IF THIS COMES
TO FRUITION...THE DROUGHT IN ARKANSAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN.

IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS STICK AROUND OR EVEN DECLINE...THE PROCESS
WILL BE SLOW. VEGETATION IS MOSTLY DORMANT AND CONSUMING LESS GROUND
WATER. THE PROCESS WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN THE SPRING IF SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE...AND VEGETATION COMES BACK.

THE OUTLOOK THROUGH FEBRUARY OF 2018 CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST LOCALLY...AND DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTPS://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTPS://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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