Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FGUS71 KGYX 181551
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MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-013
-015-017-019-041915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1100 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THE SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS ALSO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MAINE IS NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE EIGHTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A
NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A BIG
WARMUP BETWEEN THE 11TH AND 15TH OF THE MONTH WHICH RESULTED IN A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS
RESULTED IN FLOODED RIVERS AND STREAMS SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERY FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY NIGHTIME
LOWS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY RANGE THE OFFICIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST CALL FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW HAS MELTED OFF IN THE SOUTHERN MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE UPPER
PEMIGEWASSET BASIN AND UPPER SACO BASIN TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
SNOW DEPTH IS GENERALLY PATCHY IN THESE AREAS WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW. HOWEVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER SNOW DEPTH STILL RANGES FROM 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. SNOW
SURVEY DONE ON WEDNESDAY AT MOOSE FALLS AND SECOND CONNECTICUT LAKE
IN FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOWED NOW DEPTH OF 28 AND 26 INCHES
RESPECTIVELY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN RANGES FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES EXCEPT 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MOOSE FALLS AND SECOND CONNECTICUT LAKE REPORTED 7 INCHES
AND 7.9 INCHES RESPECTIVELY AS OF WEDNESDAY.

...MAINE...

THE SNOW HAS DISAPPEARED ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAINE.
IN THE FOOTHILLS SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES MAINLY IN
WOODED AREAS. SNOW IS STILL WIDESPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER. IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 5 TO 10
INCHES IN OPEN AREAS TO 1 TO 2 FEET IN WOODED AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNT.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE MOUNTAINS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
THE FOOTHILLS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES STILL EXIST IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOIL MOISTURE IS IN THE ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WHERE SNOW
COVER STILL EXISTS AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL WHERE THE GROUND IS
BARE. AS REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH JUST A FEW EXCEPTIONS.

RESERVOIR IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN AND KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN
ARE CURRENTLY FILLING DUE TO THE SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

THE THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING HAS NOW PASSED FOR THE SEASON AS
RIVERS ARE CLEAR OF ICE.

RIVER FLOWS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ALSO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. THE SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MAINE
IS NEAR NORMAL. THE LONGER TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL BEYOND 2 WEEKS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR 2 SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD FOR SLOWLY MELTING THE REMAINING SNOW COVER.
HOWEVER RAINFALL IS THE KEY. IF WE CAN GET THROUGH THE REST OF APRIL
WITHOUT ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT THE REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT OFF
WITH LITTLE IF ANY FLOODING.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW
MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM
FRIDAY MAY 2.

$$

TFH


























































































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