Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
742 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Spring Flood Outlook for Southeast Texas and Southwest and
Central Louisiana...
...Near to Above Average Flood Potential on the Sabine and Neches
Rivers...
...Near Average Flood Potential on the Calcasieu, Mermentau and
Vermilion Rivers...


This outlook considers antecedent rainfall, snowpack, soil
moisture, streamflow and water supply conditions compared to
climatology, combined with longer-term 90-day climate outlook
forecasts for temperatures and precipitation across the forecast
area.

The primary factor in the development of significant river
flooding over most of the region is the occurrence of excessive
rainfall in relatively short periods of time, even for areas where
drought conditions persist or have developed.


...Outlook for southeast Texas including the Neches and Sabine
river basins...

Potential for spring flooding in this area is near to above average
at this time.

Above normal rainfall has fallen across southeast Texas from the
Gulf Coast to the area below Toledo Bend Reservoir over the past
90 days. At this time, streamflow conditions on the Sabine River
are below normal, while conditions on the Neches River are near
normal. Area reservoirs are near conservation levels. Percent of
conservation storage capacity is given below:

                                      3/2
              B.A. Steinhagen Lake     94%
             Sam Rayburn Reservoir     95%
             Toledo Bend Reservoir     91%


...Outlook for the Atchafalaya River...

The flood season has been uneventful on the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers, and this has led to an uneventful flood season on the
Atchafalaya River. Streamflows have been below normal and no
flooding has occurred this season. No flooding is expected over
the next couple of weeks but higher flows on the Mississippi will
occur later into March.

The percent of normal streamflow is given below:

                                      3/2
   Atchafalaya River Simmesport LA     75%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflow conditions, and normal
spring rainfall patterns, an Average Flood Potential is expected
along the lower Mississippi and the Atchafalaya Rivers. The
magnitude of future crests will depend on the amount and extent of
any upstream accumulation of snow cover and resultant snowmelt;
coupled with the frequency, intensity, and extent of spring rains.


...Outlook for the Lower Red Basin...

Streamflows have generally been near seasonal averages and soil
moisture is normal to below normal. No flooding is occurring or
expected over the next several days.

Percent of available reservoir flood control storage for upstream
reservoirs is given below:

                                      3/2
                    Cooper Res. TX    100%
                 Texarkana Res. TX     97%
                  Lake O` Pines TX     99%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
lower Red River Valley.


...Outlook for the Calcasieu/Mermentau and Vermilion Basins in
southwest Louisiana...

Soil moisture content is near normal and streamflows are running
below normal. Seasonal flooding has occurred this year but all
locations are currently below flood stage. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                      3/1    3/2
   Calcasieu River     Glenmora LA     30%    21%
   Calcasieu River       Kinder LA     41%    38%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
Mermentau, Calcasieu and Vermilion Basins.


...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center
indicates chances of above normal temperatures. There is a chance
of above normal precipitation across central and southwest
Louisiana and southeast Texas while equal chances of above/below
normal precipitation is expected across southern Louisiana.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures
across the area with equal chances of above/below normal
precipitation. Likewise, the 90 Day Outlook also indicates
chances of above normal temperatures, with equal chances of
above/below normal precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Outlook indicates no drought development is
expected. Elevated soil moisture in basins across the area may
result in substantial runoff from any heavy spring rains.
Typically, river flooding is increasingly probable during the
spring months in this region, where convective storms can quickly
produce rapid runoff causing flash-flood and mainstem flood
conditions. Slow vegetation growth combined with the possibility
of near normal precipitation could enhance the potential for
spring flooding across in this region.

$$

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