Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

|...THERE IS A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
MARYLAND.

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
PERIODS OF WARM TEMPERATURES IN MARCH ELIMINATED THE SNOWPACK IN THE
AREA AND COMPLETELY ROTTED THE RIVER ICE.  THE BEGINNING OF GROWING
SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SOIL CONDITIONS AND HELP REDUCE THE
OVERALL FLOOD RISK. WITH THESE FACTORS CONSIDERED...THE FLOOD THREAT
LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMAL.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL POOL LEVELS.
GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
THERE NO LONGER REMAINS A SNOWPACK IN THE REGION AND RIVER ICE IS
COMPLETELY GONE.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS HAVE THAWED OVER THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS THAT WILL
ALLOW INFILTRATION INTO THE WATER TABLE INSTEAD OF RUNING OFF.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 8-
14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE ENSO CYCLE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN
EL NINO THIS SUMMER AND FALL...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
NOTABLE ROLE ON THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS
SPRING. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SPRING ARE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

$$







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