Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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FGUS71 KPBZ 301516

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1116 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

For Early Spring, the Flood Potential is normal for the Ohio
River Basin.

A normal risk for flooding means occasional flooding could occur
with water levels having minor impacts.

For the long-range river outlooks and the probability of exceeding
floodstage or the chances of flooding relative to normal at
specific forecast points during the next 90 days, refer to
www.weather.gov/ohrfc and click on the 90-day river outlook on
the left hand side of the page. Click on the flood chc vs normal
to view the risk of flooding with respect to normal.

Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National Weather
Service during winter and early spring to summarize basin
hydrometeorological conditions and to assess the potential for
winter/spring flooding. The outlooks are based on current and
forecast conditions during the outlook period.

Factors considered in assessing flood potential are: (1)
antecedent conditions, (2) past precipitation, (3) recent
streamflows and reservoir levels, (4) soil moisture, (5) water
content of the snow pack, (6) ice conditions on the rivers and
(7) future precipitation.

Meteorologically, the winter of 2016/17 was very mild in the Ohio
Valley leading to much below normal snowfall and no ice
development on rivers.

Precipitation for the winter of 2016/17 was above normal(>125% of
normal) across the Upper Ohio River Valley. Elsewhere,
Precipitation this past winter was near normal.

Soils are moist to wet, due to frequent rains across the Ohio
River Basin.


Strong onshore flow along the West Coast of the United States
precluded intrusions of polar and arctic air masses into the
Eastern United States on a frequent basis this past winter. The
resulting lack of a significant snowpack in late winter
considerably lowers the risk for flooding in the Ohio Valley in
early spring.

Spring flooding will be dependent on the frequency and rainfall
as well as whether tropical flumes of moisture feed into storm
systems moving through the Ohio Valley.

Early spring risk for flooding is normal for flooding across most
of the Ohio River Basin.


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