Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 161727
ESFPHI
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
127 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 6

This is the sixth in a series of annual Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the
likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the
middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan
River basins. These statements will provide information on flood
threat conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture,
snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions,
streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid from March 16-30, 2017.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is below normal the first week and
normal the second week.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York
office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Below normal to above norma1. Between 2.5
and 4.5 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30
days. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - Normal to above normal. Due to the recent storm, snow
now covers all the aforementioned basins except the lower
Delaware. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can
be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest
tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Normal to above normal. Recent cold weather has
allowed some ice to form. Additional ice may form over the next
week, especially across the northern basins, but it`s not
forecast to become extensive.

STREAMFLOW - Variable, much below normal to above normal. Real
time water data is available from the United States Geological
Survey by visiting http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long
Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate
Prediction Center can be found at the following websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running below normal to normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - Low pressure gradually weakens this
afternoon across the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, high pressure
builds to our west and south this afternoon and tonight before
settling over our region Friday. Low pressure moves across the
Great Lakes Friday, then across the Northeast and northern Mid
Atlantic Friday night and Saturday. High pressure arrives later
Sunday and Monday, with a cold front moving through Monday night
and Tuesday. High pressure is forecast to build in from the
northwest Wednesday and Thursday. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls
for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

At this time, there are no strong indications of any widespread
heavy rain events, or rapid snowmelt events, for about the next
week. For the week after, temperatures are forecast to approach
normal and precipitation is forecast to run above normal, hence
the flood potential uptick from below normal to normal.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into
consideration, the overall river flood potential is below normal
for week one of this outlook and normal for week two.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

$$

Kruzdlo



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