Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 221915
ESGRDW

MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE RED WING..MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Prairie River
TACM5            10.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sauk River
STCM5             6.0    7.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5            11.0   15.0   16.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
DELM5            16.5   17.5   18.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crow River
RKFM5            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
SAVM5           702.0  710.0  712.0     6   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Snake River
PNCM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Croix River
STLM5            87.0   88.0   89.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
ATKM5            12.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FTRM5            10.0   12.5   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SCOM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MSPM5            16.0   16.5   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STPM5            14.0   15.0   17.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HSTM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
RDWM5           680.5  681.5  683.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
REDM5            14.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5             7.0    8.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1222 Z DH12 /DC1412221915/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       2.5/    2.5/    2.8/    3.1/    3.6/    3.8/    4.5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       1.9/    2.0/    2.9/    3.7/    5.0/    5.5/    6.0
:Sauk River
STCM5       1.5/    1.6/    1.8/    2.1/    3.2/    4.5/    5.1
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       2.4/    2.9/    3.4/    4.2/    5.7/    7.4/    8.7
DELM5       6.3/    6.8/    7.5/    8.4/   10.2/   11.7/   12.9
:Crow River
RKFM5       2.6/    2.8/    3.0/    3.7/    4.3/    5.5/    6.5
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     687.6/  687.9/  688.3/  691.2/  696.0/  701.3/  702.8
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.7/    3.7/    4.2/    4.8/    5.8/    6.8/    7.6
:St Croix River
STLM5      75.6/   75.6/   76.0/   77.4/   81.0/   83.4/   84.3
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.1/    6.8/    8.3/    9.2
FTRM5       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.1/    6.0/    6.9/    8.3
SCOM5       4.6/    4.6/    4.9/    5.2/    6.1/    6.7/    7.8
MSPM5       4.8/    4.8/    5.1/    5.8/    7.4/    9.0/   10.3
STPM5       3.0/    3.0/    3.1/    3.9/    5.9/    8.6/    9.0
HSTM5       4.6/    4.8/    5.3/    6.0/    8.3/   11.4/   11.7
RDWM5     668.1/  668.2/  669.9/  671.8/  674.3/  676.1/  676.7
REDM5       2.7/    2.9/    4.1/    5.9/    8.0/    9.3/   10.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1222 Z DH12 /DC1412221915/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/29/2014 - 3/29/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5
:Sauk River
STCM5       1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.1
DELM5       5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3
:Crow River
RKFM5       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9
:St Croix River
STLM5      75.2/   75.2/   75.1/   75.0/   75.0/   74.9/   74.9
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       4.1/    4.0/    3.7/    2.6/    1.9/    1.7/    1.7
FTRM5       4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    3.8/    3.5/    3.4
SCOM5       4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9
MSPM5       4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9
STPM5       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
HSTM5       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4
RDWM5     667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0
REDM5       1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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