Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KMSR 221211
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RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8            10.0   12.0   18.0    21   26   16   16   <5    6
:Red River
WHNN8            11.0   13.0   15.0    43   53   21   26   <5    7
HICN8            30.0   34.0   38.0     9   13   <5    6   <5   <5
FGON8            18.0   25.0   30.0    61   69   15   23    6   12
HILN8            26.0   32.0   37.5     9   16    6   10   <5    6
EGFM5            28.0   40.0   46.0    27   47    7   16   <5    6
OSLM5            26.0   30.0   36.0    35   56   26   46   <5    9
DRTN8            32.0   38.0   42.0    13   36    7   23   <5    7
PBNN8            39.0   44.0   49.0    20   38   10   35   <5   16

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211210/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8       1.1/    1.2/    1.8/    3.6/    9.0/   15.2/   18.6
:Red River
WHNN8       7.3/    7.7/    8.7/   10.5/   12.5/   13.6/   14.2
HICN8      13.7/   14.1/   16.3/   19.8/   25.7/   29.9/   31.8
FGON8      16.1/   16.2/   16.9/   19.3/   23.8/   28.3/   33.4
HILN8      11.7/   11.7/   11.8/   15.4/   21.3/   26.9/   33.9
EGFM5      20.0/   20.0/   20.0/   22.5/   30.8/   38.1/   43.1
OSLM5      17.5/   17.5/   17.6/   21.9/   31.4/   34.3/   35.8
DRTN8      19.9/   19.9/   19.9/   22.0/   28.0/   35.7/   40.3
PBNN8      31.6/   31.6/   31.6/   31.7/   37.3/   45.5/   48.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211210/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8       0.8/    0.7/    0.5/    0.1/   -0.4/   -0.4/   -0.4
:Red River
WHNN8       6.2/    5.7/    5.5/    4.6/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8
HICN8      12.7/   11.9/   11.7/   10.8/   10.4/   10.1/   10.0
FGON8      15.8/   15.3/   15.2/   14.7/   14.4/   14.2/   14.1
HILN8       8.9/    7.4/    6.4/    5.0/    4.4/    4.0/    3.7
EGFM5      17.8/   17.3/   16.6/   16.0/   15.7/   15.5/   15.4
OSLM5      11.7/   10.2/    8.5/    7.4/    6.8/    6.4/    5.7
DRTN8      14.3/   13.6/   12.2/   11.6/   11.1/   10.9/   10.8
PBNN8      20.7/   17.2/   14.3/   12.1/    9.9/    8.8/    8.5
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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