Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
925 AM EST Monday February 27 2017

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
Above normal streamflows are forecast for the Great Lakes and Upper
Allegheny drainages. Normal streamflows are forecast for the remainder
of the basin.

.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
The flood risk will be near normal across the Ohio Valley.  Drought
conditions are not expected.

.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
Very mild temperatures continued across the Ohio Valley for the
month of February.  The average temperatures for some climate
stations were as much as 10 degrees above normal for the month.
With the warm temperatures, there was very little snow pack, even
across the far northern reaches of the basin.

Over the last 30 days, 4 to 6 inches (150% to 200% of normal) of
rain fell across the Upper Allegheny and Great Lakes drainages.
2 to 4 inches (100% to 150% of normal) fell across Ohio, western
Pennsylvania and northern Indiana.  1 to 2 inches (50% to 100% of
normal) fell elsewhere.

http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
Soil moisture conditions are near normal across the central
Ohio Valley.  Solid mositures are in the 90th to 99th percentile
across the Great Lakes and Upper Allegheny.  Soil mositures are in
the 20th to 30th percentiles across the lower Ohio Valley and portions
of southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
Streamflow averages at the end of February were near normal across
Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western Pennsylvania and northern Indiana.
Much below normal to below normal streamflows can be found across
the remainder of Indiana, West Virginia, western Kentucky and middle
Tennessee.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR MARCH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Becoming Neutral = Normal

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral = Normal

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
Becoming Neutral = Normal

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
Neutral = Normal

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
Teleconnections are trending to neutral for the month of March leading to
near normal precipitation. Where antecedent conditions were slightly wetter
than normal across the Great Lakes and Upper Allegheny drainages, normal
streamflows are forecast. Normal streamflows are forecast for the remainder
of the basin. The month of March, will have a wet start.  Overall, near
normal precipitation and temperatures are expected.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$




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