Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 301847
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1233 PM EDT Thursday July 30 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF XXXX

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
The outlook for August calls for above normal streamflows for the northwestern
half of the Ohio River Valley and normal level streamflows for the southeastern
half.  Areas of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, western Kentucky, and middle Tennessee
are expected to continue the trend of above normal streamflows due to, obviously
likely normal to above normal August precipitation.  Much of these areas come
into the month of August with well above normal streamflows already.  Areas of
western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and West Virginia have a likely more
normal outlook.  Please note that August climatologically is a rather dry and
lower flow month so baselines are less than earlier summer months.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
August will see a few points in Indiana, Illinois, and possbily northwest Ohio
already in flood coming into it so obviously flood potential is elevated there
to begin with. Climate models point to above average precipitation for these
areas in mid and late August so this where the most potential continues.  On
the other hand, any drought potential is quite low.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
July saw rather widespread areas of well above normal precipitation.  Highest
amounts were in the 200 to 300 percent range for areas of central and southern
Indiana, middle Tennessee, and much of the entrie state of Kentucky.  Those
percentages equate to roughly 8 to 12 inches of rain for the month of July in
these areas! Most areas of Ohio, western West Virginia, and northern Indiana
saw 125 to 150 percent of normal July precipitation...running about 4 to 7
inches.  Only areas of far eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern
West Virginia saw below normal July precipitation.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
Soil moisture conditions in July for much of the western half of the Ohio River
forecast basin were very wet.  In fact, areas of Indiana and western Kentucky
are well above the 90th percentile in soil moisture.  Most other areas of the
western basin are at least in the 70th to 80th percentile.  The eastern half is
entirely normal with no place in the basin dry soil moisture-wise.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
As we head into August, much of the western half of the Ohio River forecast
basin starts off with well above normal streamflows. Areas of Indiana, western
Ohio, and eastern Illinois are above the 90th percentile due to the anomolously
high July rainfall.  Like soil moisture, naturally, the eastern half of the
basin is normal with no points of below average streamflow.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral = Near Normal

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral = Normal

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
Neutral = Near Normal

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
Weak to moderate El Nino = Normal to wetter

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
With current streamflows of the western and northwest basin starting well above
average coupled with climate models forecasting normal to above normal
precipitation, it isn`t much of stretch to call for above average streamflows
for a large portion of the Ohio River forecast basin.  In this case, we`re
calling for an above normal outlook for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, western KY, and
middle TN.  Normal streamflows are predicted elsewhere.  The CFSv2 predicts a
dry start to the month of August, but then quickly gives way to above average
precipitation for the western half of the basin by the second week.  CPC August
outlook calls for above normal precipitation sneaking into the western basin as
well.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$




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