Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 270652
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-271051-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0571
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN CO/EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NM/WESTERN
OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270651Z - 271051Z

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS OR SO GIVEN
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY
RAINFALL RATES...EXPECT POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST CELLS.

DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A WEST-EAST
ANTICYCLONE STRETCHING FROM AZ TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. A KEY
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN A
FOCUS FOR ACTIVE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE GIVEN THE SURGE
OF 65F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN CO COUPLED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY...VAD WIND PROFILER DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS CONTINUE TO SHOW PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHICH HAS AUGMENTED CONVECTION VIA UPSLOPE EFFECTS.
WHILE NOT ALL OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS TERRIBLY
ORGANIZED...CELL MERGERS SHOULD HELP LEAD TO A LOCAL UPTICK IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BASED ON EARLIER SPOTTER INFORMATION...HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES HAVE REACHED 1 INCH ALTHOUGH THESE WERE NOT IN THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS SUGGESTING HIGHER RATES ARE POSSIBLE.

IT SEEMS LIKE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO EXPANSIVE WITH
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE RELATIVE TO WHAT IS SEEN ON CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY. THE GENERAL THEME SEEN IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY EARLIER BEFORE WANING TOWARD
12Z.

RUBIN-OSTER

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38510242 38430177 37570144 36940194 36420317
            36900389 37590380 38140300


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