Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 230845
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE M-72 CORRIDOR).  THE COMBINATION OF
VARIABLES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS MANY AREAS
OF NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST
DAY IN THE NEAR TERM OF HIGH FIRE DANGER...WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
ON SUNDAY AND AN INCREASED RAIN THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-232000-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......28 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-232000-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......28 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-232000-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-232000-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......25 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-232000-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
445 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......26 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.MEMORIAL DAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB



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