Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 190805
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...A sneaky dry and gusty day today for elevated fire danger...

.DISCUSSION...Higher pressure moves in today, behind a cold front
crossing by daybreak. This will help to relax the pressure gradient
some, but gusty conditions are still expected, and mainly for far
nrn lower Michigan. Couple this with very dry air settling in, and
humidities now expected to dip into critical levels, and that.
results in elevated fire danger. Gusty winds are expected at times
into Friday and even over the weekend due to another deep low.
pressure in central Canada. While the cold front this morning will
not produce any rain due to a dry atmosphere, the low pressure
system over the weekend is likely to bring a decent chance for
showers.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-192030-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........23-28 percent...except 33-38 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1130).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter...except 19 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (550).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192030-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent...except 30-35 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1170).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (370).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192030-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent...except 33-38 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (960).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 56-61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (580).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-192030-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent...except 31-36 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1020).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192030-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
405 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........16-21 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1110).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (430).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SMD



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