Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 061916
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONLY ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHER
AMOUNTS UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
WITH THE LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STILL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. MONDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S ONCE AGAIN. NEXT CHANCES
OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WITH MORE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-070845-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 12 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-070845-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 9
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-070845-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-070845-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 47-52 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-070845-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.12 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 9
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TJL


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