Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 230713
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

...Dry air again this afternoon with some developing gustiness
then wet weather through the weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Strong sfc high is east of the region with light
southerly flow developing. These southerly winds will increase
through today with some gustier conditions likely later into
Thursday afternoon, while humidities again fall below critical
levels for many areas. A warm front lifts into the srn Great Lakes
later tonight and Friday for a round of mainly light rain and
freezing rain. This will again be possible Saturday night into
Sunday morning.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-232015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT...EXCEPT 42-47 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2400, THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
                    RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......20 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 15 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.15 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......54 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 46 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-232015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 32-37 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT...EXCEPT 44-49 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2400, THEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, RAIN AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......21 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 0800, THEN
                    RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400, THEN RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......51 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 45 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-232015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE
                    OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......24 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 17 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.13 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    1400, THEN RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......48 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-232015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200, THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT...EXCEPT 34-39 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2400. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. RAIN
                    LIKELY AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......26 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 21 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.13 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......47 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-232015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (590).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND
                    LIGHT FREEZING RAIN UNTIL 2400, THEN LIGHT
                    FREEZING RAIN WITH RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......23 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY. CHANCE OF
                    DRIZZLE AFTER 0900 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......51 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.24 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...RAIN, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SMD



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