Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FNUS71 KBGM 271026
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for SGL 172...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
526 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Weak high pressure in place today will keep conditions relatively
quiet. May see a few brief rain and/or snow showers this evening
but most of the day is expected to be dry. Tuesday morning will be
quiet before a round of rain showers move in late in the afternoon
and evening. Gusty southwest winds today, diminishing tonight and
increasing again out of the south on Tuesday. Will see a better
chance of rain on Wednesday with stronger southwest winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds...becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph
                    with gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 3100-5000 ft AGL
                    late in the morning...then increasing to
                    4600-5800 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon...decreasing to 2400-3500 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....North around 0 mph...increasing to southwest 12
                    to 21 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9   20  36  55  69  76  80  74  70  69  65  75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............27  28  31  34  38  41  45  47  49  49  49  47
RH..............68  66  61  56  48  44  40  37  34  33  33  37
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   4
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.6 1.9 3.1 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.4 4.6 3.5 2.4
Transp wind dir.N   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.0   12  14  16  18  20  21  21  20  18  17  15
Haines index....2   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers in the late evening and early
                    morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light.
Mixing height.......100-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  81  81  85  88  91  90  89  89  89  89  83
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............45  43  42  41  40  39  38  37  37  37  37  37
RH..............43  49  55  59  62  67  70  72  72  70  70  70
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   8   7   6   6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent)...then becoming
                    cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers
                    likely...mainly in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent...increasing to 52 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds...becoming south 8 to 12 mph early
                    in the afternoon. Gusting to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 1600-3100 ft
                    AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph...increasing to 17 to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........78        52        55        83
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         10        30        50
Temp............37        42        52        56
RH..............72        70        54        55
20 FT wind......E 2G5     SE 3G5    S 7G10    S11G20
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1400      2900      2600
Transport wind..S 6       S 10      S 18      S 20
Haines index....3         3         4         4

$$
Forecaster...Brian Tentinger
Requested by...Philip M.Kasper
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702947.0/BGM
.EMAIL pkasper@pa.gov



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