Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 231351
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Blackwell...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
851 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on October 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning humidity recovery has been excellent over the burn site
today given the cool morning low temperatures. Expect dry conditions
today with light and terrain dominated winds through mid-morning. Winds
will then transition to a more south-southwesterly direction for the
late morning and afternoon hours. Minimum humidities will drop to near
30 percent this afternoon as highs peak around 80. Winds remain light
this evening before a cold front moves in around midnight bringing a
northerly wind shift and some gusty winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Terrain dominated winds under 5 mph becoming
                    southwest 4 to 7 mph between 1000-1200.
Wind (20 ft)........Terrain dominated winds under 5 mph becoming
                    southwest 4 to 7 mph between 1000-1200.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2900 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............53  59  64  69  73  76  78  80  80
RH..............76  61  51  42  37  34  31  30  31
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   2   3   4   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.1   1   2   3   4   4   4   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light and variable winds around 5 mph in the
                    evening becoming north 6 to 11 mph with gusts
                    to 14 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds around 5 mph in the
                    evening becoming north 6 to 11 mph with gusts
                    to 14 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 4 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  71  65  63  61  58  57  55  54  55  54  54
RH..............33  44  54  61  66  72  72  77  76  75  75  75
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  W   NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   4   5   6   6   7   9   11
20 FT wind gust.                                    10  12  13
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  W   NW  N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   3   4   4   4   6   8   10
Eye lvl wnd gst.                                    9   10  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  E   E   NE  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...24
Requested by...Rich Gray
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717713.0/EWX
.EMAIL shudson@tfs.tamu.edu


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