Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 201429
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
829 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0853 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MARGINAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAINLY MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON STORMS. THE MAIN THEREAT FOR THE BURN SITE
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST-
NORTHEAST. A PACIFIC LOW COMES ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY THEN TRACKS NE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THIS PULLS
DEEPER MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION FOR INCREASED SHOWERS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THEN EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEW WEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENS SHOWERS
NEXT WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 2-5 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    EAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200 THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL EXCEPT
                    UP TO 6000 FT AGL NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SCATTERED IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 2-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140920.SAULS.01/GJT


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