Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 061312
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAWA AREA 1...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
912 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 AM ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.TODAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2989 MPH-FT) EARLY...INCREASING
                    TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (60719-78430 MPH-FT) BY
                    NOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 4800-5200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 15 MPH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX LVORI...........4.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
MAX ADI.............47.

TIME                10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............93     82     71     69
WEATHER COV.........NONE   SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................60     66     68     69
RH..................67     57     52     50
20 FT WIND..........W 5    W 5    NW 6   NW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........3100   4400   4800   5200
TRANSPORT WIND......W 13   W 14   W 14   W 15
LVORI...............3      1      1      1
ADI.................31     40     42     47
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...39     61     67     78

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD EARLY (47264 MPH-FT)...BECOMING POOR
                    (1500 MPH-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX LVORI...........8.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED
                    BY LATE EVENING.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
MAX ADI.............35.

TIME (SATURDAY)     6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............64     59     52     44     37     34
WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................67     63     58     55     53     51
RH..................54     66     81     89     90     94
20 FT WIND..........NW 5   NW 2   W 2    W 2    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5                    5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........3400   300    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......W 14   W 9    W 3    W 2    W 3    W 3
LVORI...............1      3      5      7      7      7
ADI.................35     4      2      1      2      2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...47     2      0      1      1      1

.SATURDAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (54509 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (79925 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5800-7100 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 16 TO 18 MPH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX LVORI...........10.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 16 TO 18 MPH.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
MAX ADI.............88.

TIME ()             6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............30     27     26     24     23     23
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................50     53     63     72     75     77
RH..................100    92     62     44     39     37
20 FT WIND..........W 3    W 4    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    2800   5800   6600   7100
TRANSPORT WIND......W 3    W 6    NW 9   NW 14  W 17   W 18
LVORI...............10     6      2      1      1      1
ADI.................2      4      28     61     80     88
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0      1      26     80     113    131

$$
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS CRATE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1600763.0/ILM



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