Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 202210
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for curd garden 4...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
510 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...We continue to see winds gusting 20 to 25 mph this
afternoon. These will subside through the evening hours as the
inversion sets up. We do expect showers and isolated thunderstorms
to affect the area Wednesday. These will probably move into the
spot location around 1 to 2 PM Wednesday afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............57.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph decreasing to 13 to 15 mph
                    late.
Vent Rate...........Poor to good (4000-42700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23  23  26  30  33  38  42  47  44  40  37  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............73  72  70  68  67  66  65  64  63  63  64  64
Dewpoint........56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  57  57  58  58
RH..............55  57  61  65  68  70  73  75  81  81  81  81
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.25  23  22  22  21  18  17  15  14  13  13  15
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............17  15  10  14  14  13  15  13  12  8   8   14
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100043  25  22  16  13  11  8   7   5   4   4   9

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming cloudy. Showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1700, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Dewpoint............58.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-2600 ft AGL increasing to 3300-4000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 26 mph decreasing to around 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Fair to excellent (21500-60600 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent to excellent
                    (79500-104700 knot-ft) in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to good (49700 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................37 increasing to 49 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 79 in the afternoon, before
                    decreasing to 63 late in the afternoon and
                    decreasing to 43 by the evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........51     58     60     77     89     96
Weather cov.....                     ISOLTD NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0      0      0      20     70     70
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............64     69     73     74     74     72
Dewpoint........57     57     58     58     58     59
RH..............78     66     59     57     57     64
20 ft wind......S 5    S 5    SW 7   SW 6   SW 6   W 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     20     15     15     10
Ridgetop wind...S 10   S 10   SW 15  SW 10  SW 10  W 10
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1800   2200   3600   4000   4000
Transport wind..S 18   S 23   SW 24  SW 29  SW 29  SW 23
LVORI...........3      1      1      1      1      1
ADI.............28     41     49     75     81     63
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100022     35     45     89     102    80

$$
Forecaster...DJ
Requested by...Leif Meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802188.0/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us


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