Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 241241
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for Goose 2...USDA-FS Daniel Boone NF
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
741 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on November 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Warmer temperatures will occur across eastern Kentucky
this afternoon in wake of departing high pressure. This in tandem with
dry low levels will produce minimum relative humidity values in the
30-35 percent range. South to southwest winds will increase to 5-10 mph
ahead of a cold front set to move through Saturday morning and early
afternoon, bringing a west/northwest wind shift Saturday afternoon with
RH values in the 50s. Cooler weather will settle in through the end of
the weekend underneath high pressure.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........32 at ignition...Max 59.
RH..................78 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Dewpoint............28 increasing to 32 late in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 1 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 200-2000 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2000-2400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph increasing to around 12
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor /900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /25300 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5 increasing to 30.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   1   1   1   2   2   5   7   10  11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............32  37  42  47  51  55  58  59  59  56
Dewpoint........26  29  30  31  31  31  31  32  32  33
RH..............78  72  62  53  46  40  36  36  36  42
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   3   4   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Ridge wind spd..0   0   5   5   5   10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   5   6   8   10  12  12  12  12  12
LVORI...........4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............3   4   7   13  25  32  34  33  32  27
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/10001   3   5   9   18  24  25  25  24  19

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 6
                    mph late in the evening.
Mixing height.......600-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor to poor (6200-10500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........12     15     18     30     47     69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      10
Temp............53     47     46     45     44     44
Dewpoint........34     35     36     36     36     37
RH..............48     63     68     70     73     76
20 ft wind......S 4    S 3    S 2    S 3    SW 4   SW 4
20 ft wind gust.10     10     5      10     5      5
Ridgetop wind...S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    SW 5   SW 5
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   700    600    600    600    700
Transport wind..S 10   S 10   S 12   S 13   S 13   SW 12
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      3      4
ADI.............5      5      5      6      8      8
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100011     6      6      7      7      7

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Isolated
                    sprinkles late at night.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Dewpoint............39.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2700 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor to good (7200-38700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................16 increasing to 43.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........76        67        54        38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10
Temp............43        46        52        56
Dewpoint........37        39        40        41
RH..............79        76        63        57
20 FT wind......SW 5G10   SW 5G10   W 5G10    W 5G10
Ridgetop wind...SW 10     SW 10     W 10      W 10
Mix hgt (ft)....800       1900      2700      3100
Transport wind..SW 10     W 17      W 15      NW 13
LVORI...........4         3         1         1
ADI.............12        31        33        43
Haines index....3         3         3         4
VRate kt-ft/10007         27        35        36

$$
Forecaster...GUSEMAN
Requested by...leif meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719100.0/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us


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