Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 231139
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for M/O 491 Road...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is forecast today. On Friday to Saturday, a storm
system will move through Arkansas, and showers and thunderstorms
will be seen. Rain amounts will be from a few tenths of an inch to
over an inch in some locations. Additional rain will be seen late
Sunday to Monday, then again later in the coming week.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph increasing to around 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 5 to 7
                    mph.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Dispersion..........19 increasing to 51.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6243 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  60  63  67  71  73  75  76  76
RH..............68  61  57  52  48  45  43  42  44
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  12  13  13  14  15  17  18  20
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 22 mph.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 6 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Dispersion..........56 decreasing to 10 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 7 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............75  73  71  69  68  67  66  65  64  64  63  63
RH..............45  47  51  54  56  58  60  62  66  68  72  73
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.21  22  22  22  21  21  20  20  20  18  18  20
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.FRIDAY...

Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 63 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 25 mph increasing to 31 to 40 mph
                    late in the morning, then increasing to 37 to
                    46 mph in the afternoon decreasing to around 32
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........42 increasing to 56 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 72 late in the morning increasing
                    to 94 late in the morning increasing to 100
                    decreasing to 86 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6532 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Temp............62  62  62  64  65  67  68  70  70  71  71  71
RH..............77  79  78  76  72  68  67  64  63  64  63  64
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  22  25  31  36  40  44  46  45  41  37  32
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  70  70  70  70  70  70

$$
Forecaster...M Trexler
Requested by...Adam Strothers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705011.0/LZK
.EMAIL astrothers@fs.fed.us



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