Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FNUS74 KMEG 261146
FWSMEG

Spot Forecast for Burn Block 37 & 38 Rx Burn...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Memphis TN
546 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions will persist at the burn site through this evening.
Relative humidity will decrease to around 25% this afternoon with
light south winds increasing to around 7 mph. Winds will remain
from the south and southeast tonight at around 5 mph, increasing
to 6-8 mph on Monday. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms,
are expected to develop overnight, mainly after midnight, and
continue into Monday morning. Monday afternoon may turn out to be
mostly dry.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Dewpoint............23 increasing to 26 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL increasing to 2600-3100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 1 to 4 meters/second shifting to the
                    south 4 to 6 meters/second in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   11  14  18  21  25  28  32  36  40  43  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............26  26  30  36  43  48  53  57  59  60  60  59
Dewpoint........22  22  22  22  22  21  21  22  24  25  26  27
RH..............87  87  72  56  43  35  29  26  27  27  28  30
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   7   10  13  13  12  10  10  12  13  13  14
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).1   3   4   6   6   5   4   4   5   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 80 percent after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Dewpoint............30 increasing to 39.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......1500-1800 ft AGL decreasing to 400-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 17 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 4 to 8 meters/second.
Rainfall amount.....0.53 inches.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........51  58  64  71  78  84  91  92  94  95  97  98
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30  30  30  30  30  30  80  80  80  80  80  80
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  80  80  80  80  80  80
Temp............56  54  53  52  51  50  49  48  47  47  46  46
Dewpoint........28  29  30  31  32  34  35  36  36  37  39  40
RH..............34  38  42  45  49  55  59  63  65  68  76  79
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  16  16  17  16  14  12  9   9   12
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Trans spd (m/s).6   7   7   7   7   8   7   6   5   4   4   5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................60 percent decreasing to 30 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Dewpoint............43 increasing to 49 late in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-800 ft AGL increasing to 1200-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 5 to 7 meters/second.
Rainfall amount.....0.12 inches.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........100       92        84        87
Weather cov.....LIKELY    LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............60        60        30        30
Chc of pcpn (%).60        60        30        30
Temp............45        50        58        62
Dewpoint........42        44        48        50
RH..............89        80        69        65
20 FT wind......SE 5G10   SE 6G10   SE 7G10   SE 7G10
Mix hgt (ft)....500       800       1200      1500
Transport wind..SE 13     S 14      S 15      SE 12
Tran wind (m/s).SE 6      S 6       S 7       SE 5

$$

Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Jim Walden (AFMO)
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702910.0/MEG



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